2009 World Series Game 1 Preview and Pick

Philadelphia Phillies – Cliff Lee +150, 8 O/U at New York Yankees – CC Sabathia -160, 8 O/U, Yankees Stadium, Bronx, N.Y., 7:57 PM EST, Wednesday, October 28th, TV: Fox

by Badger of Predictem.com

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After a few months of speculation in February and March, followed by seven long months of action in between the lines, we finally have the matchup that many expected all along when the Philadelphia Phillies> and the New York Yankees meet on Wednesday night in Yankees Stadium for game one of the 2009 World Series.

The Phillies clinched their second straight National League pennant back on October 21st when they defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers, 10-4, to win the NLCS four games to one. The best offense in the National League continued to slug away at the plate, pounding the Dodgers beleaguered pitching staff for 35 runs and 36 hits in the series they ended quickly in five games.

The Yankees clinched the American League pennant late Sunday night with a decisive 5-2 victory over the Los Angeles Angels, giving the Yankees the series four games to two. Left hander Andy Pettitte continued his magnificent postseason prowess by tossing six-and-a- third innings of one-run baseball and the Yankees turned it over to Mariano Rivera for a six-out save to get the Yankees back into the fall classic for the first time since 2003.

No matter how you look at it both teams needed nine playoff games to clinch a birth into the World Series, so on paper this matchup looks like it could be one of the best in recent memory.

Both teams have historic implications on the line as well, as the Phillies will attempt to become the first National League team to win back-to-back World Series titles since the Cincinnati Reds did it in 1975 and 1976. The Yankees, the MLB team with the most wins in this decade, will look to finish the job by notching their 27th World Series title in team history in their brand new building at Yankees Stadium.

The starters for game one are set and it looks like a pitcher’s duel between hired guns from Cleveland, as the Yankees will put their prize offseason acquisition CC Sabathia out on the bump against the Phillies huge midseason acquisition Cliff Lee, both former Indians.

The early odds on the game out of Las Vegas show the Yankees and Sabathia as rather large -160 favorites on the moneyline, with Lee and the Phillies listed as +150 underdogs on the dimeline. The over/ under total shows up on a few boards at 8 runs, but for the most part the total is off the board at most offshore sportsbooks and books in Vegas as oddsmakers wait to see what kind of weather is around the Bronx on Wednesday.

So far both pitchers have done exactly what they were brought onto their current teams to do … win games in the postseason.

Sabathia was named the ALCS MVP after winning two games and allowing just two runs in 16 innings in the series. Sabathia is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his three postseason starts this year, which is starting to make people forget that he was 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in his five previous playoff starts with Cleveland and Milwaukee.

Lee has actually been more dominant than his former teammate in the postseason, going more innings (24.1 to 22.2 IP) and giving up less hits (14 to 17) with a lower ERA (0.74) than Sabathia, but he doesn’t have the bling to show for it.

But as intriguing as the opening pitching matchup is, there’s no doubt that everyone will be tuning into the Fox Network on Wednesday to watch the ball fly out of the yard, as the top two offenses in all of baseball are set to clash head-on in two of the most homerun- friendly ballparks in the league.

So far it’s been the big names in both lineups that have provided the punch.

Phillies slugger Ryan Howard took home the NLCS MVP trophy due in part to his ridiculous .355 average and 1.203 OPS he’s put up so far in the postseason. Philly has also received its fair share of contributions from outfielders Jason Werth and Raul Ibanez, and shortstop Jimmy Rollins who’s 4-for-6 in the 9th inning of the postseason including his killer-clutch walkoff double to beat the Dodgers in game four and turn the NLCS in the Phillies favor.

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This is also shaping up to be the season that Yankee fans can finally get off of star Alex Rodriguez’s back for his previous postseason meltdowns. A-Rod has been the backbone of the Yankees postseason offense, hitting .438 with a 1.516 OPS including several monstrously clutch homeruns that either tied the game of put the Yankees ahead for good.

Captain Derek Jeter has also chipped in nicely with three playoff homeruns, and Red Sox castoff Johnny Damon finally got into the act with a clutch two-run single in the Yankees ALCS-deciding game six victory on Sunday. First baseman Mark Teixeira only hit .222 in the ALCS, so he has yet to get hot at the plate and lookout if he does because it could get ugly for the Phillies.

The Phillies-Yankees matchup is actually a rematch of the 1950 World Series, one the Yanks swept in four games.

But there’s a little more recent history between these two teams for bettors to use in determining betting trends and streaks. The Phillies took two of three games from the Yankees in interleague play this past May at Yankee Stadium, and it should have been a sweep except that closer Brad Lidge blew a save in the middle game of the series that allowed the Yankees to steal a 5-4 win in extra innings.

The Phillies two wins in that series came against Sabathia and the Yankees other prize offseason recruit, A.J. Burnett. They touched Sabathia for nine hits and three runs in eight innings of a 4-3 victory, up then closed out the series with a 7-3 victory over Burnett, who gave five runs on eight hits in six innings of work.

Lee has a history against the Yankees as a member of the Indians, going 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA and a really high 1.538 WHIP in nine career starts.

If the game comes down to bullpens it will help that the Phillies have all had a full week off and will be able to go with a Johnny- Wholestaff approach, whereas the Yankees pen will have had just one day off. As a whole though the bullpen edge goes to the Yankees as Rivera continues to be lights out as a closer where the Phillies still have questions about Brad Lidge despite his three saves so far this postseason.

Badger’s Pick: It’s playoff baseball, which means it’s all about the pitching. Even with lineups stacked top-to-bottom with great hitters, this game will be the pitcher’s duel everyone is expecting (to the angst of all Cleveland Indians fans). Take the under of 8.

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