2009 World Series Game 2 Preview and Pick

2009 World Series – Game Two

Philadelphia leads series 1-0

Philadelphia Phillies – Pedro Martinez +200, 9 O/U at New York Yankees – A.J. Burnett -200, 9 O/U, Yankees Stadium, Bronx, N.Y., 7:57 PM EST, Thursday, October 29th, TV: Fox

by Badger of Predictem.com

The New York Yankees face a nearly must-win situation in game two of the World Series tonight in Yankee Stadium, and they’ll ask their other big offseason pitching acquisition A.J. Burnett to try and deliver it for them against the Philadelphia Phillies and a familiar pitching foe, Pedro Martinez.

Last night in game one it was Phillies lefty Cliff Lee who outdueled the Yankees lefty CC Sabathia, throwing a complete-game six-hitter while only giving up one unearned run in the Phillies 6-1 victory. Sabathia only gave up two runs, both of them coming on solo homeruns from Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, before the Yankees bullpen gave up four runs in the final two frames to turn the outcome into a no-doubter.

Burnett will try and get the Yankees back to even in the series before it shifts to Philadelphia tonight, and he’ll go up against a face very familiar to the Yankees when Pedro trots out to the bump in the bottom half of the first inning.

Oddsmakers originally opened the game with Burnett and the Yankees as -180 favorites on the moneyline, but the action has been pouring in on the Yankees following the opening game loss so the number has been adjusted upward to -200 at most offshore sportsbooks. Pedro and the Phillies are now +190 on the dimeline or +185 to +180 at the sportsbooks that don’t offer reduced juice.

The over/under total is currently listed at 9 runs. The runline bet is currently listed at Phillies +1.5 at -115, with the Yankees listed at -1.5 at -105.

Burnett have pitched fairly well in the playoffs thus far, winning his first two starts against the Minnesota Twins and the LA Angels, but he was tagged with the loss in game five in the Angels series after giving up six runs on eight hits through six innings. His bullpen didn’t help him much in that loss however, as Philip Hughes was unable to out of the inning after inheriting a few base runners that Burnett put on to start the frame.

All told Burnett is 2-1 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in the playoff thus far. Burnett faced the Phillies earlier this season in interleague play and that didn’t go so well either, as he was tagged for five runs on eight hits in six innings of a 7-3 loss.

Martinez has only made one start in the postseason thus far, in a game that turned into a 2-1 victory for the Dodgers. But as the score would indicate, he pitched exceptionally well in the game allowing just two hits in seven innings before the Phillies bullpen (specifically Chan Ho Park) blew the one-run lead in the late innings.

Pedro has had quite a history as the Red Sox ace versus these Yankees too, and I’m not talking about him throwing the Yanks old bench coach Don Zimmer to the ground either. Pedro has 32 career starts against the Yankees and is 11-11 with a 3.20 ERA, a solid .211 opposing team batting average and a spectacular .281 on-base percentage.

Out of all of the Yankees regulars, Alex Rodriguez has had the most success hitting .291 against the righty. Catcher Jorge Posada has had the best power numbers, hitting four homeruns and driving in 10 runs in 69 career plate appearances against Pedro.

The Yankees will need A-Rod and Posada to pick it up tonight too, as A-Rod was held hitless with three strikeouts last night against Lee and Posada has one of the Yankees six hits. Derek Jeter was the lone offensive spark for the Yanks, going 3-for-4 and scoring the only run of the game on a Jimmy Rollins throwing error.

Yankee manager Joe Girardi might put seldom used utility player Jerry Hairston into the lineup tonight, as he is .370 lifetime versus Pedro (only 31 PAs) and he could replace Nick Swisher in right field. Swisher went 0-fer again last night and is just 4-for-35 in the playoffs this season.

The Phillies lineup should be able to keep plugging away at Burnett tonight, as the first six hitters in the lineup all had at least one hit last night. Although many of those hits came in the last two innings after Sabathia was sitting next to Girardi on the bench.

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The Phillies will also have a fresh bullpen since Lee went the distance last night. The Yankees on the other hand used five relievers after Sabathia last night, although none of them pitched more than two-thirds of an inning, so they all should be available again if needed.

Badger’s Pick: A must-win game for the Yankees means a lot of extra pressure on Burnett tonight, and I’m not sure he’s up to the task. I expect the Phillies to come out swinging early in the count at fastballs too since there’s really no pressure to win tonight, trying to get to Burnett before he can throw his big “Uncle Charley.” The best bet tonight might be on the over of 9, but I’m all about value so I’m taking the Phillies at +190 tonight.

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