2009 World Series Game 5 Preview and Pick

2009 World Series – Game Five

New York Yankees lead series 3-1

New York Yankees – A.J. Burnett +125, 8.5 O/U vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Cliff Lee -135, 8.5 O/U, Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pa., 7:57 PM EST, Monday, November 2nd, TV: Fox

by Badger of Predictem.com

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On the brink of elimination the Philadelphia Phillies will put all of their hopes on ace lefty Cliff Lee to try and keep them alive when the Phillies and New York Yankees get together for game five Monday night in Citizens Bank Park.

But it won’t be easy as the Yankees will counter with an ace of their own, sending right-hander A.J. Burnett out to the mound to try and clinch their 27th World Series title in franchise history.

The Phillies have their backs against the wall because last night Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both ripped run-scoring hits off of Phillies closer Brad Lidge in the top of the ninth inning to earn a 7-4 victory in game four. The Phillies rallied to tie the game in the bottom of the 8th on a Pedro Feliz solo homerun, but Lidge was unable to keep it tied making the Phillies rely on Lee to keep them alive tonight.

Lee was absolutely sensational in earning the victory in game one of the series, limiting the powerful Yankees lineup to just six hits and one unearned run in the complete-game win.

The problem for the Phillies is that Burnett was equally sensational in earning the victory in game two of the series, allowing just four hits and a run in his seven innings of work.

The biggest difference between the two pitchers on Monday night is that Lee will be pitching on his normal five days of rest, while Burnett will be throwing on a shortened three-day schedule that Yankees manager Joe Girardi has been using the whole postseason.

Oddsmakers opened game five with Lee and the Phillies as -130 favorites on the moneyline, and some quick, early steam at the window moved the number up to -135 favorites overnight. That’s makes Burnett and the Yankees a valuable +125 underdog on the dimeline at the offshore sportsbooks.

The over/under total opened at 8.5 overnight. As of press time the runline odds have yet to be released.

Both pitchers were so successful in their opening outing of the World Series because they both worked ahead in the count for most of the game.

Lee threw 80 of his 122 pitches last Wednesday for strikes, and with the Yankee hitters in defensive mode at the plate he was able to keep his changeup down and outside which helped him notch 10 strikeouts in game one. He was most effective against the Yankees billion-dollar 3-4 hitting combo of Mark Teixeira and A-Rod, who combined to go 0- for-8 with five of those 10 strikeouts between them.

Burnett was also pinpoint with his control throwing first-pitch strikes to 24 of the 26 hitters he faced in his seven innings. Overall 68 of his 108 pitches were strikes and with him pitching in pitcher counts all night he notched nine strikeouts, four of which came against Phillies slugger Ryan Howard who took the “golden sombrero” on the night.

If Philadelphia has any hope of staying alive they will need their big-bopper Howard to get back on track at the plate. The big first baseman has been held in check by Yankees pitching all series, going just 3-for-17 (.176) so far with 10 strikeouts.

With the exception of Jason Werth and Chase Utley, the Phillies lineup has been held down by the Yankees plethora of arms. Werth is the only Phillies hitter hitting over .300 in the series (.308), while Utley has killed Sabathia (3 homeruns) in his two starts but is hitting just .267 overall.

In the other dugout Girardi has do be ecstatic that the Yanks are one game away from winning the title, since neither A-Rod or Teixeira have yet to do much damage on offense. A-Rod was just 1-for-13 prior to his run-scoring double last night, while Teixeira is only 1-for-14 in the World Series thus far.

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Unlike the Phillies lineup, the rest of the Yankees order has picked up the slack for the big two on offense. Derek Jeter (.412) and Johnny Damon (.294) have set the table at the top, with Posada (.308, 5 RBI) doing most of the cleaning up hitting in the five-slot.

The emotional roller coaster the Phillies went through in game four could take its toll in tonight’s game as well. When Feliz tied game four in the 8th inning with his big fly the Phillies dugout as well as the house at Citizen Bank Park erupted with life, but that life was snatched and sucked away only minutes later when the Yankees showed the killer instinct that has been missing from the pinstripes in the past few seasons.

Badger’s World Series Pick: As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Yankees are destined to win the series now. Last night’s 9th-inning comeback was a kick to the stones for the Phillies and their followers, something I think they won’t recover from in time to stave off elimination. Take the Yankees as +125 dogs tonight.

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