2009 New York Yankees Team Preview - Betting Odds
by Badger of Predictem.com
The New York Yankees wanted to send old Yankee Stadium out with a bang in 2008 by hosting playoff and World Series games deep into October, but injuries and a weak pitching staff doomed the Yankees to a 89-73 record that wasn’t even good enough to make the postseason as the American League wildcard.
So stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Not content to spend another year watching the postseason, the New York Yankees and the Steinbrenner’s retooled the budget, lineup and the pitching staff all by buying up the top-three marquee players available in free agency. If signing starters C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and first baseman Mark Teixeira, to the tune of a cool $423.5 million combined, wasn’t the equivalent of the Yankees thumbing their nose with a big “F.U., we’re the Yankees” to the rest of baseball in the offseason, then I don’t what could be more close.
With a host of big-name players now gone (Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano) the Yankees had about $80 million come off the books before the spree, so it’s not as outrageous as it seems on its face. But one thing is for certain, this Yankees team is loaded with the top talent money CAN buy, so expect the roller- coaster ride that is the Yankees in 2009 to be fun to watch, whether it’s crash-n-burn or a title march.
2009 World Series Odds – 2.8-to-1
2009 AL Pennant Odds – 1.5-to-1
2009 AL East Division Odds – -1.3-to-1
(All of the listed odds are those currently offered at Sportsbook.com)
On paper, it’s hard to find any team in baseball as deep with proven major league talent than the Yankees. A stacked lineup, a new and improved staff and the game’s steadiest closer are all reasons why the prices (i.e. odds) for Yankees futures are almost even money.
Offense – It takes all of two nanoseconds to figure out that Teixeira and his combined .308 batting average, 33 homeruns and 121 runs batted in playing in both leagues last season will fit nicely between Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez in the Yankees order. His defense at first will also help the Yankees, but they were already 7th in defense in 2008 (.986), so it won’t be as important as his bat.
Johnny Damon (.303, 29 S, 17 HR, 71 RBI) is still one of the league’s more productive leadoff hitters, but he’s just one of the few injury- prone and over-priced players the Yankees will be counting on to get back to their previous All-Star caliber level in 2009. Catcher Jorge Posada who only played in 51 games in 2008, second baseman Robinson Cano who “only” hit .271 last season, and designated hitter Hideki Matsui who only played in 93 games, all must prove they can withstand the everyday grind and produce again.
The remaining two outfield and lineup spots will be filled by players that win the open competition during Spring Training. Xavier Nady (12 HR, 40 RBI in 59 games as NYY in ’08) and ex-A’s and White Sox castoff Nick Swisher (just .219 in ’08 with White Sox) will go head- to-head for the right field job, while Melky Cabrera and youngster Brett Gardner will via for the centerfield job.
Pitching – The guy over in the corner with the perpetual grin, the guy who can’t stop giggling, oh that’s Yankees pitching coach Dave Eiland. He was just handed Sabathia and Burnett to top off his rotation, so excuse him if he’s a little giddy.
Adding Sabathia and Burnett to any major league rotation would quickly make it one of the best in the league, but it gives the Yankees starting depth that they haven’t seen in years.
Chien-Ming Wang (8-2, 4.07 ERA in 15 starts) drops down to the third spot in the rotation, and if healthy, instantly becomes a great matchup for the Yanks versus other team’s No. 3 starter. Joba Chamberlain (12 starts) and Andy Pettitte (14-14, 4.54 ERA in 33 starts) round out the rotation, and youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy will serve as emergency policies instead of back-of-the- rotation starters like they were in 2008.
Bullpen – Mariano Rivera continues to be one of the best closers in the game, and last year was more of the same as he nailed down 39 of his 40 save opportunities.
If there’s one question on this Yankees team, one flaw, it would be their set-up crew in the bullpen for the late innings. Righties Brian Bruney (3-0, 1.83 ERA, 33 K in 34.1 IP) and Jonathan Albaladejo (13 K in 13.2 IP) are both very young and unproven, and lefty Damaso Marte (24 K in 18.1 IP) has only a handful more games of experience himself.
I fully expect the Yanks to fortify the ranks in the bullpen, probably as rosters are trimmed just before the end of Spring Training. Worse case scenario is the Yankees blow a few games trying to get a lead to Rivera, and then they throw money at someone in a trade during the season.
Gambling Review/Preview
The Yankees are an extremely hard team to beat on, mainly because you can count the number of times they are an underdog in a game on your hands. Eating chalk to bet on the Yanks is a hard way to win money, and their -572 money total for the season puts them in the red for bettors. On the runline, the Yankees were a horrible -1324 (73-88), and they stayed under the total more often then you’d think with a 66-90 over/under record.
In 2008 Wang cashed in for bettors at a rate of 80 percent (12-3, +781) pitching in the No. 1 spot in the rotation before his injury, dropping to the No. 3 slot will make him more expensive to take him, but he will have big numbers again in ’09. Chamberlain was also good starter money, as the Yanks won 8 of his 12 starts for a +234 tally on the season.
As the oddsmakers No. 1 favorite, there’s really no sense in taking a future on the Yankees in ’09. At 2.8-to-1 odds you’d have to bet so much to make it worth something, and that’s too much investment on that type of bet. Besides, what fun is picking the odds-on favorite? Where’s the challenge in that?
That said, this team is loaded for a title in 2009. Save the money you’d bet on the Yanks to win the World Series future and bank it for the season. With the ability (i.e. bankroll) to pay the steep prices on the juice, you will win day-in and day-out with the Yankees in ‘09.
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