2010 MLB Predictions

2010 MLB Predictions
by Badger of Predictem.com

Major League Baseball will have it’s Opening Day in just a few short weeks, sandwiched in between college basketball’s Elite Eight and Final Four, so for many people it may go under the radar.

But for those of you looking for a way to catch up on what’s happened in MLB since the New York Yankees beat the Philadelphia Phillies in six games last October, here are team-by-team capsules and breakdown of their chances at a pennant in 2010.

Futures odds are provided by bodog.eu, Sportsbook.com, SportsInteraction.com. The best odds for each category are listed.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Odds to win AL East – Sportsbook: even
Odds to win AL Championship – BoDog: 7-to-4
Total Wins Over/Under – 94.5 at SportsInteraction

The Yankees will be going for title No. 28 this year, and without a whole lot of fanfare (alright, less then in previous years) the Pinstripes may have actually improved in the offseason. They upgraded in centerfield by trading for Curtis Granderson from Detroit, then added righty Javier Vasquez from Atlanta who instantly becomes the league’s best fourth starter on any roster. They might miss DH Hideki Matsui and his bat in the lineup a little, but on paper, they’re still stacked.

It’s never fun to take the favorite for a futures bet, so I’ll let you decide if 3-to-2 is worth it. Their over/under total of 94.5 is certainly high, but if they won 103 games last year, I’m not sure why they would lose nine more games this year with an arguably better team.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Odds to win the NL East – Sportsbook: 1.75-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 3-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 92.5 at SportsInteraction

The Phillies are also out in front of the pack, as far as oddsmakers are concerned, which is not surprising considering they added the best pitcher in the game the past few seasons by working out a deal for former Blue Jay Roy Halladay. They also added set-up man Danys Baez to help ease the pressure on closer Brad Lidge, who’s coming off knee surgery. The only change in the Phillies big-bopping lineup will be to swap Pedro Feliz for Placido Polanco at third, so little to nothing will be lost offensively.

But even though the lineup is potent, and the rotation is still strong enough to take the NL East easily, I’m starting to think the oddsmaker at SIA got it right on the number … 92 wins. I’m also staying away on their short 3-to-1 odds as NL champs, for the simple reason that winning a third straight NL pennant is a rare occurrence and one that’s bound to fail at some point.

BOSTON RED SOX
Odds to win AL East – SportsInteraction: 2.25-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 3.5-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 94.5 at BoDog

The Red Sox nation watched the Evil Empire lift the trophy last year, so they went out and followed the Yanks blueprint from last year, sort of, to try and get back to the party. They overspent but landed the best pitcher in free agency, John Lackey (LA Angels), but that’s where the copycat games ended. The rest of the Red Sox changes in the offseason (Mike Cameron in CF, Marco Scutaro at SS and Adrian Beltre at 3B) seem to be more about adding defense than offense.

With teams in the AL East deeper and better, it could be a stretch for the Red Sox to win more than 94 games in 2010, even with a new dedication to pitching and defense. You can argue that they did win 95 last year, but the Sox are getting older and losing offense, which in my book makes me skeptical.

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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Odds to win the NL Central – Sportsbook: 1.2-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – SportsInteraction: 5.5-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 88 at Sportsbook

When the Cardinals resigned free agent outfielder Matt Holliday to hit behind Albert Pujols they instantly became a strong favorite in the National League race, but it’s their pickup of free agent pitcher Brad Penny that will determine the Cards fate in 2010. If Penny is healthy and can regain some of his old form it gives St. Louis a solid 4-deep rotation with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse.

The Cards do have some questions though, especially at third where rookie David Freese will try and win the everyday job in Spring Training. Ryan Franklin finally emerged as the closer last year, but if he has issues the Cards bullpen might not be strong enough come playoff time.

I’m a little stunned that oddsmakers believe the Cards are only an 88-win team. It makes me wonder if it’s a trap, but I think St. Louis to win the NL Central (at 1.2) and the over of 88 wins are both solid plays.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Odds to win the NL West – Sportsbook: 1.8-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 8-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 84.5 at SportsInteraction

Not much happened out in Hollywood this offseason, as the Dodgers spent more time in divorce court than they did on free agency. The Dodgers still have a solid lineup with a young core of Matt Kemp, James Looney and Andre Ethier backed by solid vets Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, so all of the questions this year revolve around their pitching staff.

Youngsters Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsly have become the Dodgers top two starters, and when you have Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla as the No. 3 and 4, you can understand why the Dodgers have major questions about their pitching.

They still have enough talent from last year’s 95-win team to win a watered-down NL West (at 1.8-to-1), but I’m not so sure their chances of taking the NL pennant are as strong as 8-to-1.

CHICAGO CUBS
Odds to win the NL Central – SportsInteraction: 3.5-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – SportsInteraction: 13-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 83.5 at Sportsbook

The Cubs were another team that really didn’t do too much in the offseason in regards to free agency. They were able to dump Milton Bradley in a trade with Seattle, but their pickups of Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to fill his role fails to make a big impression. The loss of lefty Ted Lilly for the first few months could be huge for a pitching staff that is suddenly just Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and last year’s rookie surprise Randy Wells and a bunch or retreads (Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny and Shawn Marshall).

With a much weaker pitching staff it’s hard to imagine the Cubs winning more games then they did last year, which just so happened to be 83 games. The Cubs are one of the public’s favorite teams to wager on, and also one of the oddsmakers favorite teams to inflate their numbers on, so taking them at 3.5-to-1 for the NL Central or at 13- to-1 for the NL pennant is too high and not enough value in my book.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Odds to win AL West – Sportsbook: 3-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – Sportsbook: 12-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 82.5 at Sportsbook

The Mariners became this year’s trendy pick to surprise everyone with the busiest offseason of any team, picking up third baseman Chone Figgins in free agency and landing lefty Cliff Lee in a trade with the Phillies. With Lee and Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation the Mariners could be a scary team to face in a short 5-game playoff series, but the question is do they have enough talent to get into a playoff series.

The M’s rotation falls apart after those two (Erik Bedard is a huge maybe, Ian Snell and Ryan Rowland-Smith) and the lineup will need big seasons out of Bradley, Casey Kotchman at first and Jack Wilson at short. The Mariners also have a huge question at catcher, where backup Rob Johnson now is the de-facto starter.

At 3-to-1 the Mariners are a great bet to win the wide-open AL West, but after that I just don’t see the value in their futures odds. Seattle should also be a good bet to get more than 82.5 wins too, since they did win 85 last year and there’s little doubt they are better on the field.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Odds to win AL West – Sportsbook: 1.8-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – Sportsbook: 10-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 84.5 at BoDog

No team in baseball took more of a hit in free agency this year than the Angels, losing their top starter in John Lackey as well as Figgins to the rival Mariners. They also parted ways with longtime DH/ OF Vladimir Guerrero (also with rival Texas), so the Angels are not the same team that has dominated the AL West in recent seasons.

But even though the Angels lost Lackey, they still have the AL West’s best rotation top to bottom with holdovers Jared Weaver, Ervin Santana, Joe Sanders joined by Scott Kazmir and free agent pickup Joel Pineiro. The added former Tiger Fernando Rodney to an already strong bullpen and their acquisition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui at DH will add some pop to a lineup that still has Torri Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales.

The Halos had 97 wins last year, so it’s surprising to see that their season wins over/under number has dropped all the way to 84.5. While I think 97 again this year is a major stretch, 85 in my opinion is not, so that’s a great bet.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Odds to win AL Central – SportsInteraction: 2.5-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 12-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 84.5 at Sportsbook

This is why it’s important to pay attention to Spring Training. A week ago the Twins would have been one of my favorites this year due to a great offseason, but when news of closer Joe Nathan’s arm problems broke (and possible season-ending surgery) my attitude changed entirely.

I still love the Twins improvements in the offseason, especially up the middle with shortstop J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson, to add depth to the lineup. The Twins also resigned Carl Pavano to sit right in the middle of a rotation that’s not quite the Yankees, but still young and good enough to get more out of guys like Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn.

Until more is disclosed with Nathan and his torn ulnar collateral ligament, I’m going to sit in a holding pattern with the Twins and futures bets.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Odds to win AL East – SportsInteraction: 5.5-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – BoDog: 10-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 89.5 at Sportsbook

The Rays broke through a couple of years ago with an unexpected World Series run, and since then they’ve failed to reach the higher expectations that come with it. At 10-to-1 to win the AL pennant, it appears at least the oddsmakers still consider the Rays a strong contender.

The problem is I’m not sure where they got better in the offseason. They traded for Rafael Soriano from the Braves to try and fix their closer situation, but I’m not sure his 43 career saves in 57 opportunities is good enough to hold the job. The lineup is strong with Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton in front of Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, but with both Crawford and Pena in the last year of their contracts it could be a go-for-broke approach if their still hanging around at the trading deadline.

If they Rays were treated more like a middle of the pack team (say, like 10-to-1 for AL East or 25-to-1 for the AL crown) instead of such a strong favorite there might some value at taking a chance. With a deeper, better AL East I don’t see how the Rays get to 90 wins either, what would be a 6-game improvement over last season.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Odds to win the NL West – Sportsbook: 3-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – Sportsbook: 13-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 82.5 at BoDog

If the Mariners are the hot team in the American League, then the Giants are the hot one from the National League. The Giants, a team that won 88 games and hung around in the NL wildcard race till the final week last year, upgraded their weakest link by addressing their lack of offense in the offseason by bringing in Mark DeRosa, Edgar Renteria and Aubry Huff. They also resigned catcher Bengie Molina to the surprise of many, so the Giants might have enough offense around Aaron Rowand and Pablo Sandoval.

Two-time Cy Young Tim Lincecum tops a rotation with Barry Zito, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez that’s easily the strongest in the NL West. They also added lefty Jeremy Affeldt for depth at the back end of the bullpen, so the pieces are definitely in place for the G-men to make a serious run at a NL West title.

With all of the solid additions to an 88-win team, the fact that the Giants over/under wins total sits at 82.5 at all three sportsbooks is a stunner to me. Even though something smells fishy, I’d still wager on the Giants getting close to 90 wins again this season. I also like the Giants at 3-to-1 to win the NL West.

NEW YORK METS
Odds to win the NL East – BoDog: 8-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – Sportsbook: 18-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 81.5 at Sportsbook

The Mets were one of the favorites in the NL last year and this season you can get them at 18-to-1, so that’s how far they’ve dropped in perception after last year’s struggles. It certainly doesn’t help that center fielder Carlos Beltran is out for a few months after knee surgery and shortstop Jose Reyes is missing Spring Training with a newly diagnosed thyroid condition.

The Mets did land Jason Bay in free agency to play left field, but it’s yet to be determined if the spacious Citi Field saps his power numbers like they did to David Wright last year. The Mets can get by with Beltran for a while with the addition of Gary Matthews as the fourth outfielder, so the Mets offense will hinge on whether new first baseman Daniel Murphy can replace Carlos Delgado in the order. Ace Johan Santana needs to return to his dominating form because the Mets No. 2 through 4 starters of Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and a rehabbing Oliver Perez shouldn’t scare too many.

I think there’s better value available to you with other NL East teams (Florida, Atlanta), and I don’t think the Mets have enough pitching to make a legit run at an NL pennant. My gut says that with a tougher NL East that 81 wins might be the peak, so I would tend to side on the under for season win totals.

ATLANTA BRAVES
Odds to win the NL East – SportsInteraction: 4-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 10-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 85.5 at Sportsbook

Believing they had enough pitching, the Braves made news by dealing Vasquez to the Yankees for their new leftfielder, Melky Cabrera. That puts more pressure on youngsters Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, and a post arm-surgery Tim Hudson to pick up the slack. They also added Billy Wagner to be their closer, so their pitching relies on health more than other NL East contenders.

Atlanta added Troy Glaus to play first base and add pop to the lineup with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, but if their young middle infield of Yunel Escobar and Martin Prado doesn’t continue to improve they could fall short offensively.

At 4-to-1 the Braves could be a middle for the NL East crown, but they’ll have to play out of this world and have the Phillies implode for them to win it in my opinion. Their odds for the NL pennant aren’t good enough either, and I think if the Braves get over 86 wins it will be just barely by the hair on their chinny chins, so I’m passing on those futures too.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Odds to win the NL West – Sportsbook: 2.5-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 9-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 84.5 at SportsInteraction

The Rockies put together another improbable playoff run last year, climbing from double digits below .500 to the NL wildcard spot over the span of the final three months. But the Rockies seem content to take their shot at it again with the team they currently have after doing little to nothing in the offseason.

Colorado brought back team leader Todd Helton to finish his career in a Rockies uniform, and to help mentor along a young but talented everyday lineup. The Rockies will need SS Troy Tulowitzki and new 3B Ian Stewart to provide power and run production behind speedsters Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzales. The pitching rotation returns lefty Jeff Francis after a year off following arm surgery, but they must have the Jorge De La Rosa that went 16-9 with a 1.38 WHIP in 32 starts last year and not the one that was 25-31 with a 5.60 ERA in his previous 64 MLB starts.

Clearly this team overachieved and won 92 games last year, so a 7- game drop down to 85 wins (or 84.5) isn’t that far fetched. As with any really young team, they could either progress or regress, and I think they regress a little pack to the pack this season.

TEXAS RANGERS
Odds to win AL West – SportsInteraction: 2-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – BoDog: 13-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 83.5 at Sportsbook

If it weren’t for the Mariners trumping their offseason with bigger moves, we all might be talking about the Rangers as this year’s AL sleeper. While they have improved and boast a solid young team, I just don’t think they have the guns to get to playoffs yet.

As always, the Rangers pitching is razor thin with their offseason acquisition of Rich Harden as the only addition to their staff of young starters (Scott Feldman, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Tommy Hunter). Rookie Julio Borbon will likely start in center, making the Rangers very young and green up the middle with SS Elvis Andrus, 2B Ian Kinsler and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. They also added Vlad Guerrero from the Angels to team up with Josh Hamilton for some more pop, but it will be interesting to see how much he has left in the tank and if Hamilton can stay healthy (already issues in Spring Training).

If the Rangers do win the AL West I will be surprised because they have the 4th-best rotation in the 4-team division, so at 2-to-1 you’d be crazy to let it fly with that staff. I do like them to get over 83.5 wins though, as they should be better then last season and they somehow found a way to get 88. It will be real close though.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Odds to win AL Central – Sportsbook: 1.6-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 18-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 82.5 at BoDog

The White Sox also made some solid offseason moves to remake a team that relied on homeruns into one that should be more balanced this season. Of course two of the Sox moves were done last August to try and win the AL Central, trading for Jake Peavy and Alex Rios, but this winter they added Juan Pierre to add some speed to the top of the order and Mark Teahan to solve their yearly quest to find a steady third baseman.

If Peavy is healthy and back into his old form, the White Sox will have the best rotation in the Central, with Mark Buhrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks all sliding down one spot to create matchup advantages in the No. 2 through 4 spots. The White Sox also added J. J. Putz to help the back end of the bullpen, so they certainly plugged their holes from last season to make a run at it this year.

Chicago is good enough to win the AL Central outright, but with the Twins closer Nathan likely out people are going in droves to lay money on the Sox and it in turn has crushed their futures odds and value. At 18-to-1 they are a solid middle pick for the AL pennant, but the best wager you could put down is on the over of 82.5. They won 79 last season, and they’ve improved more than three games in the offseason.

DETROIT TIGERS
Odds to win AL Central – Sportsbook: 5-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – Sportsbook: 20-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 80.5 at BoDog

The Tigers were once again busy at the winter meetings, trading away Curtis Granderson and pitcher Edwin Jackson and letting Placido Palanco walk to clear away some salary space. Some of that saved money was spent on former Yankee Johnny Damon, but for the most part the Tigers are going to try and win it with a combination of veterans like Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Inge and Maglio Ordonez and youth like rookies Scott Sizemore (2B) and Austin Jackson (CF).

The rotation also features a plethora of young fireballers like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman and Armando Galarraga, who are joined by another young flamethrower Max Scherzer from the D-Backs in the Jackson deal. Perhaps the Tigers biggest move was to sign free agent closer Jose Valverde to be the stopper they have struggled to find the past few seasons.

At 5-to-1 the Tigers are the best value to win the AL Central. But relying on rookies up the middle and with a very young pitching staff, I think an AL Central title would be about the limit. I’d also lean on the over of 80.5, since they won 86 last year and should be just as competitive even though the entire division got better as well.

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FLORIDA MARLINS
Odds to win the NL East – Sportsbook: 8-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 15-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 80.5 at BoDog

The Florida Marlins seem to write the same script every season, play well and hang in the pennant race till the trade deadline, then fade at the tape when they don’t have the payroll to make that playoff- pushing trade. The 2010 season looks like a carbon copy, again.

The Marlins always seem to have good young players, like last year’s Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, that come out of nowhere. Then there are guys like center fielder Cameron Maybin, who come in with the hype only to fall on their face. Those two will be back along with SS Hanley Ramirez, 2B Dan Uggla and 3B Jorge Cantu to give the Marlins lineup some punch. The same story can be said about the rotation … young and talented (Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco), but also inconsistent and injury prone (Anibal Sanchez).

There’s good value for the Marlins at 8-to-1 to win the NL East, but I just don’t think they have the guns to get it done. Young teams like the Marlins are hard to wager on because they cause lots and lots of heart aches. But I do think they are worthy of 81 to 85 wins, which makes the over look like the best bet.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Odds to win the NL West – SportsInteraction: 5-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – SportsInteraction: 25-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 82.5 at BoDog

The D-Backs are a nice team with some good young talent. Guys like 3B Mark Reynolds, SS Steven Drew and RF Justin Upton are all exciting guys with more upside than most youngsters, and Arizona went out and brought in Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche to fill the right side of the infield with a veteran presence.

But the D-Backs chances have already been dealt a big blow when manager A.J. Hinch admitted that ace Brandon Webb’s shoulder is not completely rehabbed and he’ll likely have to start the year on the DL. Suddenly the top of the rotation is Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson, leaving the bottom three-fifths to youngsters (Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner) and retreads (Rodrigo Lopez).

With Webb the D-Backs had a chance in the wide-open NL West, but if he misses a significant portion of the season their year will look more like last year’s 70-92 campaign. Arizona will be better than they were last year, but 13 games better in order to go over the 82.5 win total, I don’t think so.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Odds to win the NL Central – SportsInteraction: 8-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – Sportsbook: 23-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 80.5 at BoDog

Despite having the worst starters ERA in all of the National League, the Brewers still won 80 games last year. So the Brewers went out and picked up two lefties to add to the rotation by signing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, both pitchers who had 20-plus quality starts in 2009. Wolf and Davis will be sandwiched around Yovani Gallardo to form a solid No. 1 through 3 in the rotation with Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Chris Narveson and Jeff Suppan fighting for the final two spots. The bullpen should be better on the back end with the addition of LaTroy Hawkins and the resigning of closer Trevor Hoffman.

The lineup still features the one-two punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but this year it will also features new speedsters SS Alcides Escobar and CF Carlos Gomez at the top. A healthy return for both Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart would give the Brewers enough offense to compete in the NL Central.

The Crew could upset the Cards and sneak away with the NL Central if the pitching holds up, and at 8-to-1 they offer great value. But that’s probably about as far as they can go. Although I’m not sure why a team that was struck with injuries and bad pitching and still won 80 games last year opens the year at 80.5 over/under win total. Milwaukee has improved and (so far) has returned to health, so they should go over 80.5 this year.

CINCINNATI REDS
Odds to win the NL Central – BoDog: 10-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 25-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 79.5 at SportsInteraction

The Reds made a huge statement when they outbid everyone for the services of the young Cuban lefty, Aroldis Chapman. That statement read like … yeah our pitching is bad so we NEED something, anything. Whether or not Champan makes the big league club on Opening Day remains to be seen, but if Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto don’t rebound from bad years in ’09 it might not matter much.

The Reds improved their offense by picking up shortstop Orlando Cabrera in free agency and getting Scott Rolan at the deadline last year, so now Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto won’t have to do it all by themselves. But if they can’t stop teams from scoring it won’t matter how good their offense has improved.

Cincinnati won 78 games last year, and with an improved lineup it’s not a stretch to see them win a few more games and go over the 79.5 over/under win total. But they just don’t have enough arms on the mound to make a serious run at the NL Central or NL pennant.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Odds to win the AL West – BoDog: 10-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 33-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 78.5 at Sportsbook

The Oakland A’s are sort of the forgotten team in the AL West since everyone and their brother is either picking the Mariners or the Rangers to topple the Angels. While the A’s did make some offseason moves to help the team, like signing Ben Sheets to be the ace of the staff, signing a leadoff hitter in Coco Crisp and trading for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, the truth is it likely won’t be enough to get them to the top.

Young guys like Cliff Pennington at short, Rajai Davis in leftfield and Daric Barton at first need to pick up their games quickly in order for the A’s to hang with the rest of the AL West. Meanwhile, youngsters like Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzales will have to show the pitching potential they have to justify all of the trades in the past few seasons.

I’m sorry but most of the A’s moves were cosmetic at best, and they just don’t have enough proven MLB talent to justify any of my money wagering on them.

HOUSTON ASTROS
Odds to win the NL Central – Sportsbook: 30-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – Sportsbook: 50-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 74.5 at BoDog

On the surface the Astros did a nice job of adding good ball players to the team in the winter, guys like pitcher Brett Myers and 3B Pedro Feliz are solid additions. But if first baseman Lance Berkman has to play with a cranky knee all season, the Astros little chance will get flushed quickly.

Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez will get help from Myers in the rotation, but after those three it falls off fast. And without a proven closer, as Matt Lindstrom and Brandon Lyon will battle for the gig in Spring Training, the ‘Stros bullpen has big questions to answer too.

Houston is in the same boat as 28 of the 30 teams in MLB, missing the quality depth of pitching needed to make a legit run at a pennant. The Astros did win 74 games last year, so the over of 74.5 might be worthy of a small wager, but otherwise it’s not worth a wager in my opinion.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Odds to win the AL Central – SportsInteraction: 14-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 50-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 74.5 at BoDog

How far have the Indians fallen? It was only a few short years ago the Tribe was playing playoff baseball, but when two straight Cy Young’s get traded (Sabathia and Lee) what do you expect.

We should see the results of those trades this season, as LF Matt LaPorta (Sabathia trade) and catcher Lou Marson (Lee trade) are set to start for the Tribe this season. Russell Branyon was signed to try and add some pop to the lineup at first along with holdovers Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo, but the Indians lack the firepower to hang in the race all season. When Jake Westbrook, a guy missed two years with elbow issues and only made 5 starts last year, is listed as your No. 1 starter you know you are in for a world of hurt.

The Indians would need to win 10 more games this season in order to get over 74.5, a nearly impossible task with their rotation. I’d stay away from everything Cleveland in futures.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Odds to win the AL Central – SportsInteraction: 14-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – Sportsbook: 50-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 71.5 at BoDog

I will give the Royals credit, at least the did something this winter. They signed veterans Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel and Jason Kendall to try and bring some maturity to the clubhouse, but all three of them are on the downside of their careers so what really did they do realistically? Put lipstick on a pig.

The Royals have two great starters in Zach Greinke and Gil Meche, but after that its mediocrity at best. The good news is that if the Royals do have a lead late in games, the backend of their bullpen with Joakim Soria, Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz are proven commodities.

A 7-game improvement to 72 wins is possible, but I for one am not going to take the chance on the Royals. If you’re betting on them to win the pennant you need to close your account and find a new hobby.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Odds to win the AL East – Sportsbook: 100-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 80-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 70.5 at BoDog

With ace Roy Halladay gone the Blue Jays are starting over … again. The Jays still have some proven Major League stars, like Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Aaron Hill, but the list stops there.

Most of the prospects they received in the Halladay trade (P Kyle Drabek, C Travis D’Arnaud) will likely need another year in the minors, so they will rely on a bunch of unproven starters like Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Shaun Marcum and Brett Cecil to fill the void again this year.

For a team to be a true long shot contender they have to have a legit chance, which the Blue Jays do not. No way, no how. You might as well go pull some slot machines to waste money, at least then you have a chance.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Odds to win the AL East – SportsInteraction: 66-to-1
Odds to win AL Championship – SportsInteraction: 66-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 74 at Sportsbook

I am totally blown away that the oddsmakers give Kansas City and Toronto a better chance at winning than the Orioles in 2010. Sure they play in the AL East, but at least the Orioles addressed some of their needs in the winter, picking up Kevin Millwood to serve as their ace, bringing back Miguel Tejada to play third and getting Garrett Atkins to play first. Those moves certainly won’t move them ahead of the Yanks or Red Sox, but when you combine those guys with the O’s youngsters Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters you’re certainly better than the Royals and Jays.

The Orioles rotation also has young arms Brad Bergesen and Brian Matusz, who both showed decent potential in late season callups last year. Baltimore isn’t close yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go over 74 wins by a game or two.

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SAN DIEGO PADRES
Odds to win the NL West – SportsInteraction: 40-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – Sportsbook: 50-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 71.5 at BoDog

The Padres are a mirror image of the Blue Jays, trading their ace Jake Peavy in order to gut the team and start over. The big question is whether or not they ship first baseman Adrian Gonzales out of town too before the deadline.

Young guys like Kyle Blanks, Will Venable and Chase Headley have some upside, but the Padres veterans like David Eckstein are Scott Hairston are role players that are now starters which makes their lineup suspect. The Padres also picked up Jon Garland to team with Chris Young and Kevin Correia at the top of the rotation until guys like Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc are ready to step up to their potential.

There’s just too much uncertainty in San Diego for me to even consider taking the under of 71 wins. The Padres will win some games if Gonzales stays, but if he goes so do they Padres victories.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Odds to win the NL Central – Sportsbook: 100-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – SportsInteraction: 100-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 69.5 at BoDog

Seriously, how do the Pirates still have any fans? Every year the Pirates lose over 90 games, and every offseason their management does absolutely nothing to change their losing ways. It’s such a shame too because PNC Park is awesome, and the Pirates owner and GM fill it with a borderline Triple-A team every season.

The Pirates prize pickup this year was second baseman Akinori Iwamura, a nice player but not the kind of guy you build a franchise around. Garrett Jones, and all of his 103 games and 23 career homeruns becomes the Pirates top power hitter. While Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf and Zach Duke anchor the rotation. The good news for Pirates fans is that they’ve traded away all of their good players at the deadline over the last few years that there’s nobody left that anyone wants anymore, so this team is likely to stay in Pittsburgh all season.

Go watch the Penguins skate for another Stanley Cup and forget about wagering on the Pirates for at least another year.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Odds to win the NL East – SportsInteraction: 80-to-1
Odds to win NL Championship – BoDog: 75-to-1
Total Wins Over/Under – 71 at Sportsbook

The Nationals were actually really busy this winter improving their club, but it doesn’t appear that oddsmakers or anyone else for that matter seem to care at all. The Nationals spent money on a new ace (Jason Marquis), a closer (Matt Capps), a catcher (Ivan Rodriguez) and a second baseman (Adam Kennedy, all of which will help but it still might not get them out of the NL East cellar.

Marquis, John Lannan and Scott Olsen are a decent top three in the rotation, but when you consider that none of them would be more than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on any other team and you start to realize the uphill climb the Nationals face. The reality of the situation is that the Nationals best pitcher, top pick Stephen Strasburg, has yet to even throw a Major League pitch.

With 59 wins last year, the Nationals would need to improve by 12 games in order to go over the 71 season win total set by Sportsbook. Not yet.

2010 MLB FUTURES PREDICTIONS

Here’s where I’m going to be placing my futures wagers this season.

AL East – Boston Red Sox (2.25-to-1)

I’m not so sure the Sox have enough to overtake the Yankees, but I’m not going to take the Yanks at even money or less so the Sox are the lesser of two evils.

AL Central – Detroit Tigers (5-to-1)

I was all over the Twins up until Nathan hurt his arm. His injury is enough to make me jump ship to the Tigers, who have under achieved since making the blockbuster deal with Florida a few years back. This is finally their year.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels (1.8-to-1)

Even though Seattle and Texas have made strides, I still think the Angels have the deepest rotation and enough offense to stay at the top.

AL Wildcard – New York Yankees

Since I took Boston above, I have to put the Yankees here, but it could be the other way around when it’s all done.

NL East – Atlanta Braves (4-to-1)

The Braves will have a hard time overtaking the Phillies, but for the same reasons I can’t take the Yankees is the same reason I can’t take the Phillies.

NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals (1.2-to-1)

You could argue the same point here, but the Cards are the class of the division and should run away with it.

NL West – San Francisco Giants (3-to-1)

The Giants are the only team in the division that doesn’t have issues on the mound, and they improved their offense enough in the offseason to lead me to believe they can overtake the Dodgers.

NL Wildcard – Philadelphia Phillies

See Yankees, New York, above.

WORLD SERIES FUTURES

So with my futures breakdown of the MLB regular season, it’s time to place a final wager on the big enchilada. As always, I follow a short- middle-long approach to World Series futures.

Short Favorite – New York Yankees (2.75-to-1 at SportsInteraction)

I hate taking the favorite as my short, but I honestly can’t see anyone overtaking the champs. I’ll gladly double my money if it means taking the Yankees.

Middle of the Road – St. Louis Cardinals (13-to-1 at Bodog)

The Cards should get into the playoffs rather easily, and once they are in their top three starters can go pitch-for-pitch with the Yankees (or other AL representative).

Longshot – San Francisco Giants (30-to-1 at Sportsbook)

The Giants are a true long shot here, but again, with their starting pitching they could be a tough matchup come playoff time. Lincecum wins a third start on short rest to give the Giants an unexpected title.

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