2011 MLB Predictions - American League

2011 MLB Predictions for the A.L.

by Badger of Predictem.com

With the end of spring training just a few weeks away, and with opening day rosters starting to become a little bit more clear, now is the ideal time to take a deeper look into the futures odds for the 2011 Major League Baseball regular season.

Last season I correctly predicted the San Francisco Giants as my longshot to win the World Series (at 30-to-1), so let’s see if I can keep my good luck and momentum rolling along with a look inside each division, as well as a look at regular season win totals for each team.

We’ll be looking at each team in order of how they finished in their own division. We’ll conclude with a short/middle/longshot pick for the American and National League pennants, but we’ll save our predictions of the teams with the best shot at winning the 2011 World Series for another predictions article.

All of the future odds and season win totals can be found at SBG Global Sportsbook.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Odds to win AL East – +750
Odds to win AL Championship – 12-to-1 (+1200)
Total Wins Over/Under – 84.5 (over +100/under -130)

The Tampa Bay Rays won 96 games last season and stunned a lot of folks in New York and Boston by winning the American League East division crown in 2009. With the early over/under for wins set at just 84.5 games, it’s clear the oddsmakers have them pegged to drop a bunch of games with a shaky offseason that lives and dies on two high- risk/high-reward free agents in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.

Both Damon and Ramirez are clearly on the downside of their careers, so it is a big risk the Rays are taking, but it’s one that also could be enough to replace the loss of both Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena in the lineup if Ramirez thrives back in the role of DH.

The Rays traded away a proven pitcher in Matt Garza (to the Cubs) because they felt they had a suitable replacement in rookie righty Jeremy Hellickson, who looked solid in his September call-up (4 GS, 4-0, .232 OBA). With lefty David Price moving into the role of the ace, and James Shields, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis all back after solid ’09 seasons, Hellickson could open in at the No. 4 or 5 spot in the rotation and could become a matchup nightmare for other teams. What could be the crushing blow to the Rays season is a lack of a proven closer in the bullpen now that Rafael Soriano and his 45 saves are now setting up Mariano Rivera in New York. Without a proven replacement (right now the leading candidate is J.P. Howell), there’s no way the Rays hold onto as many leads as their bullpen held last year.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Odds to win AL East – +175
Odds to win AL Championship – +300
Total Wins Over/Under – 91.5 (over -120/under -110)

The New York Yankees made more news this offseason because, for the first time in recent memory, most of the big name free agents all spurned them to go elsewhere. As I already mentioned, they did sign Soriano to be an expensive set-up man/insurance policy to Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. They also brought in Russell Martin to be the everyday catcher, moving Jorge Posada to DH, which on paper could make their stacked lineup with Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeiria even more stacked at the bottom.

But the Yankees might end up paying a huge ransom before the trade deadline to shore up their starting pitching. C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes are solid at the top, but after that you get an uneasy feeling with A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia and unproven commodities in Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre. With a less-than-stunning class of free agent pitchers available via trade (Ryan Dempster, Mark Buehrle, Francisco Liriano) it could be a long year for the Yankees and a hard task to get to another 92 win season and get over the regular season win total on the board right now.

BOSTON RED SOX
Odds to win AL East – -140
Odds to win AL Championship – +175
Total Wins Over/Under – 95 (over -130/under +100)

After Boston failed to make the playoff last season, Red Sox management decided to push all of the chips into the middle of the table this year with the biggest and boldest moves of the entire offseason. Not only did the Red Sox add All-Star first baseman Alex Gonzalez in a trade from San Diego, but the also added All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford from the rival Tampa Bay Rays, to give the Red Sox a lineup that can match anyone from top to bottom. It is because of these two moves that the Red Sox leapfrogged everyone into the role of favorites to win the AL East and the American League pennant.

Boston still has the division’s deepest starting rotation one through five, but they will need bounce back years from John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka in order to push the Yankees and Rays all the way into September. The addition of Bobby Jenks to the back end of the bullpen also gives the Red Sox the depth to hold leads late in the game.

The Red Sox only need a six-game improvement in the standings to reach the mark of 95 wins, something I think they will do, but you’ll have to pay the extra juice (-130) if you want to take the wager on the over.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Odds to win the AL East – +1400
Odds to win AL Championship – +2000
Total Wins Over/Under – 76.5 (over -125/under -105)

The Toronto Blue Jays used the “addition by subtraction” method of improving their team in the offseason, trading away veteran outfielder Vernon Wells to clear cap space and dugout space for their young players. Two of those young prospects, catcher J.P Arencibia and pitcher Kyle Drabek (both obtained in Roy Halladay trade) will make the Blue Jays opening day roster this season, along with young guys Travis Snider and Aaron Lind from previous years and proven stars Aaron Hill and last year’s breakout stud Jose Bautista.

The Blue Jays could also have a sneaky good starting rotation with Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil all gaining valuable experience in the rotation last year. The back end of the Jays bullpen also was addressed in the offseason, with the additions of Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch to give manager John Farrell multiple options if they find themselves in the lead after seven innings.

On paper the Blue Jays aren’t as sexy as they were last year, but they could actually be better than last year’s team that won 85 games, so the over wager of 76.5 wins could turn into a real solid bet.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Odds to win the AL East – +2000
Odds to win AL Championship – +5000
Total Wins Over/Under – 76.5 (over -120/under -110)

No team in baseball turned things around as fast as they Orioles did last season as soon as they brought in manager Buck Showalter. This offseason Baltimore’s management went out and gave Showalter a few interesting pieces to play around with this season too, trading for 3B Mark Reynolds and SS J.J. Hardy and adding free agent Derek Lee at first base to totally remake their infield. They also added Vladamir Guerrero at DH to add some pop in the lineup, so for the first time in years there’s actual excitement in Baltimore for the upcoming season.

The problem is that the Orioles did nothing to address their weaknesses in starting pitching. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jeremy Guthrie, but he’s not a No. 1 starter and ace of the staff, and the fact that the Birds are still considering him their first option on opening day speaks volumes about Baltimore’s chances in 2011. They did add closer Kevin Gregg to Mike Gonzalez at the back of the bullpen, and he will help the Orioles win more games this season, but a 10-plus game improvement (in order to reach 76.5) over last year will be a stretch unless other teams in the AL East fall apart or have injury issues.

AL EAST PREDICTION: With everyone else taking the safe pick(s) of Boston or New York as the division champs, I’m going for the high- risk, high-reward pick of Toronto to win the AL East (at +1400). Since I’m going out on a limb like that, I’m going to lay the big odds (-120) on the Baltimore Orioles to go over the total of 76.5 too, hoping that at least one of those two teams surprises the experts and jumps up the standings in the tough AL East.

BET ON MLB GAMES AT REDUCED ODDS AT THE WEB'S BEST BASEBALL SPORTSBOOK: 5DIMES (THIS WILL SAVE YOU HUGE MONEY!)

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TWINS
Odds to win AL Central – +150
Odds to win AL Championship – +900
Total Wins Over/Under – 86 (over/under are both -115)

Does anyone get more out of less that Ron Gardenhire? You can expect another solid year out of the Twins even though the faces and names have changed during the offseason.

The Twins biggest move during the winter was to sign Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka to play 2B, which means Alexi Casilla will move over to shortstop to team with 3B Danny Valencia to form a very young left side of the infield. Justin Morneau is still recovering from his concussion symptoms and could be slow out of the gate, but with Michael Cuddyer, Josh Kubel, Joe Mauer and the re-signed Jim Thome back the Twins should have plenty of pop around him to keep the lineup competitive every day.

The Twins also re-signed Carl Pavano to join Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn to form a solid starting rotation for the AL Central. The addition of Matt Capps (from Pittsburgh) will help the bullpen in case former closer Joe Nathan isn’t ready to resume the role following Tommy John surgery last season. Minnesota won 94 games last season and one could argue they are likely to reach that mark again this year with a healthier team, making a wager of over 86 regular season wins a solid wager in my opinion.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Odds to win AL Central – +175
Odds to win AL Championship – +1000
Total Wins Over/Under – 85.5 (over -120/under -110)

On paper the Chicago White Sox look like they might have a strong enough team to give the Twins another run for the AL Central title. By adding Adam Dunn as their DH, they finally have a big bat to protect Paul Kornerko in the lineup. They have speed at the top (Juan Pierre), solid youngsters coming into their prime (Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham), and proven veterans (Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, Mark Teahan and A.J. Pierzynski) to give the White Sox a mixed attack that should be able to produce some runs.

While Mark Buehrle and Jake Peavy are both another year older, they anchor a rotation that adds Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Edwin Jackson to form a solid staff. The biggest question mark for the Sox is the back-end of the bullpen, with young lefties Matt Thornton and Chris Sale expected to close games for the first time in their careers. Sale looked great in his September call-up (32 K in 23.1 IP, .185 OBA, 4 SV in 4 SVO), so he could turn into a huge fantasy pickup as the main closer for the Sox.

After winning 88 games last season, the oddsmakers opened the over/ under season win total for the White Sox at 85.5 expecting a slide. With a questionable bullpen it might be a reach, but I like the White Sox chances at the over of 85.5 wins, but the cruddy odds of -120 on the moneyline is enough to make me pass on that wager.

DETROIT TIGERS
Odds to win AL Central – +200
Odds to win AL Championship – +1600
Total Wins Over/Under – 84 (over/under are both -115)

The window of opportunity for the Tigers is closing quickly, with former studs like Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge, Jhonny Peralta and Carlos Guillen all getting longer in the tooth. They went out and got C/DH Victor Martinez to help protect first baseman Miquel Cabrera in the lineup, but if Cabrera can’t stay off the sauce the Tigers will need more than one of the aforementioned players to have big seasons to carry the load.

The Tigers rotation is anchored by Justin Verlander, but after the righty flamethrower it’s a host of one-time prospects like Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Phil Coke who have yet to really have their breakout year. Veteran Brad Penny will fill the No. 5 spot if he’s healthy, but the Tigers rotation does have some warts that could make an AL Central title run a reach. Jose Valverde signed on to be the closer, so the Tigers will have some great bullpen depth along with Joel Zumaya and Joaquin Benoit setting him up in the late innings.

For Detroit to reach the current over/under total of 84 wins they would need a three-game improvement from the 2010 season, and while the bullpen will be able to hold some leads, I’m not so sure the aging offense will be able to put up as many runs.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Odds to win the AL Central – +2000
Odds to win AL Championship – +6500
Total Wins Over/Under – 71.5 (over -120/under -110)

The good news for Friends of the Tepee is that the Indians should finally start turning some of the players they received in trades from the previous year’s yard sales into established major-league roles. First baseman Matt LaPorta and LF Michael Brantley (Sabathia trade) will be joined by 3B Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson (Cliff Lee trade) in everyday roles, with Marson splitting time with a healthy Carlos Santana at catcher. Mix in veterans Austin Kearns (free agent) and DH Travis Hafner, All-Star OF Shin-Soo Choo, and an all-Cabrera middle infield (Asdrubal at SS, Orlando at 2B) and the Indians lineup should be improved over last year’s 69-win campaign. Cleveland might even benefit from a mid-April or early-May “acquisition” of a healthy Grady Sizemore back into the lineup.

The problem the Indians might face is that after No. 1 starter Fausto Carmona, they just don’t have any clue what they’ve got. Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot have a little seasoning, and Carlos Carrasco (also from Lee trade) looked good in a September call-up, but for the most part the rest of the Indians rotation will consist of really young, really raw pitchers with plenty of room for improvement. Chris Perez is a solid closer even though his stuff doesn’t blow anyone away, but the Tribe’s bullpen is equally young and unproven making the Indians reliant on players who are likely still a few years away from their prime.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Odds to win the AL Central – +4000
Odds to win AL Championship – +8000
Total Wins Over/Under – 69 ((over/under are both -115)

Cut and paste all of the above references to Cleveland and their young talent that is likely several years away from competing into September for a division crown, then add a year or two for the Royals in Kansas City. The Alex Gordon project moves to left field in 2011, and teamed with newcomers in SS Alcides Escobar and CF Lorenzo Cain (from Milwaukee for Zach Grienke) and holdover 2B Mike Aviles, the core of the new Royals team is young and fast. Mix in RF Jeff Francoeur and veterans C Jason Kendall and 3B Wilson Betemit, and now the Royals are talking a slightly average offense.

Without Grienke at the top of the starting rotation the Royals will be forced to turn to Luke Hochevar, ready or not. Kansas City did pick up former A’s castoff Vin Mazzaro, and they’re taking a risk that former Rockie Jeff Francis is back to his old form after years of arm troubles. Joakim Soria can be a filthy closer (43 of 46 in 2010), when he gets a chance.

AL CENTRAL PREDICTION: This is my boring, play it safe pick by taking the Minnesota Twins at +150. They have the deepest pitching in the division, which is why I think they’ll win it when it’s all over. The two regular-season win totals in the AL Central that I like (Minnesota over 86; White Sox over 85.5) both come in at such high odds (-115 and -120, respectively), that they’re no longer a good value and not worth the wager.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

TEXAS RANGERS
Odds to win AL West – -120
Odds to win AL Championship – +800
Total Wins Over/Under – 86.5 (over/under are both -115)

The Texas Rangers went all the way to the World Series in 2010, so there truly is nowhere to go but down. Losing out on resigning Cliff Lee to anchor their rotation was a dagger to the Rangers, and will force pitching coach Mike Maddux to perform another miracle in 2011. Hoping Brandon Webb returns to form is not like handing the ball to Lee every fifth day, and the Rangers could end up falling hard this season because of it.

Offensively the Rangers will still have the strongest lineup in the AL West, with the addition of Adrian Beltre at third and Mike Napoli at catcher making up for the loss of Vladamir Guerrero. Mike Young wants out of Texas, but if he stays to play DH and backup Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler in the middle infield, it gives the Rangers the depth from top to bottom they will need to compete because they will still have Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz providing the power to drive in runs.

C.J. Wilson becomes the ace of the staff, and with youngsters Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter mixed in around Webb the Rangers will have a rotation that is good, but not the elite type of unit that guarantees another title run. Neftali Feliz will have a full season of closing games, and leads a Rangers bullpen that will rely on veterans Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes to continue to defy their age.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Odds to win the AL West – +250
Odds to win AL Championship – +1600
Total Wins Over/Under – 83.5 (over -125/under -105)

Last year the A’s finished at .500, 81-81 on the season, so there’s also little doubt they will either move up the standings or drop down a notch. Looking at the depth chart I keep finding myself thinking that GM Billy Beane has put together a nice team, but I’m just not so sure the team is good enough to move to the front of the AL West class.

With an outfield trio of Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus combining with Daric Barton at first, Mark Ellis at 2B and Kurt Suzuki at catcher the A’s seemed to have cornered the market on gap hitters with solid on-base averages. They did go out and sign Hideki Matsui do be a run-producer at DH, but where’s the rest of the A’s power production going to come from? I like the A’s approach, I’m just not so sure they can continue to produce runs all 162 games during the season without suffering some serious dry spells.

Their pitching staff is a lot like their lineup, solid and young with good potential, but in the end it might not be good enough to carry the entire load. Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzales have all shown flashes of “ace” type stuff, but one of them (or two) is going to have to rise to the next level and be a superstar … something I’m not sure they are ready to do yet. Closer Andrew Bailey is solid, and he’ll likely benefit from having lefty Brian Fuentes around to close or set-up when needed. Those two with Michael Wuertz and Grant Balfour give the A’s the best bullpen in the West, something that should gives the A’s a few more wins this season and put them over 84 wins on the season in order to cash in on the total.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Odds to win AL West – +225
Odds to win AL Championship – +1200
Total Wins Over/Under – 83 (over -120/under -110)

Last year the Angels fell from their perch atop the AL West in a hard way, and it didn’t get much better during the winter when most of the top free agents they wanted to sign (i.e. Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee) decided to sign elsewhere leaving them high and dry. But the cupboard isn’t exactly bare, so we’ll see if manager Mike Scioscia can recreate the magic the Angels had in recent years.

It’s always dangerous to attach the outcome of a team’s season on just a few players, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do for newcomer Vernon Wells and first baseman Kendry Morales. Wells, acquired in a trade with Toronto when Crawford signed with Boston, must rediscover the hitting stroke that earned him his huge salary. Meanwhile, Morales will have to rebound from his broken leg last year because those two players will be counted on to drive in runs for the Angels along with Tori Hunter. The rest of the Angels lineup is filed with role players (Peter Bourjos, Howie Kendrick, Bobby Abreu, Erick Aybar), so they will need the big boppers to bop big in order to compete once again in the new AL West.

The Los Angeles rotation is filled with some of the more recognizable names in the division, with Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir all capable of solid seasons with good run support. Without solid run support, which will depend on Wells, Morales and Hunter driving in runs, the Angels will end up short again because the bullpen is not as strong as it used to be either. Fernando Rodney takes over as the full-time closer, as many of the old faces in the bullpen have moved on over the years.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Odds to win AL West – +1600
Odds to win AL Championship – +5000
Total Wins Over/Under – 70 (over +100/under -130)

Remember last year when the Mariners were everyone’s darling and experts from all over the country were boldly predicting an AL West title and American League pennant? Instead they became sellers at the trade deadline instead of buyers, and 61 wins later the Mariners expectations have crashed back down to reality.

Seattle still has a lot of nice pieces … Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, Chone Figgins … teamed up with a few promising youngsters in 1B Justin Smoak and OF Michael Saunders and a couple of serviceable veterans (Jack Wilson, Miguel Olivo and Brendan Ryan). It’s just not a lineup in its entirety that I can honestly say is one that will win a division.

The Mariners have an undisputable stud at the top of the rotation in Felix Hernandez, but after last year’s Cy Young winner the M’s have a young lefty in Jason Vargas, oft-injured Erik Bedard, and a host of other maybe’s (Doug Fister, Michael Pineda, David Pauley) and a castoff (Nate Robertson). David Aardsma is a solid closer at the back end of the bullpen, and Brandon League will be joined by Manny Delcarmen as primary set-up men in the late innings, but overall the bullpen had to carry a lot of innings for short starters and wore down, something that looks like it’s destined to be repeated again in 2011.

AL WEST PREDICTIONS: I thought about this one long and hard, and it came down to either Oakland (+250) or Los Angeles (+225), but I’ve decided to go with the deeper pitching staff and the Angels with my pick for the AL West. Weaver and Haren form the best one-two staff in the division, and I like the vets behind them and the steady hand of Scioscia on the bench. With big years from Wells, Hunter and Morales, the Angels (+225) is my pick.

AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT PREDICTION:

Short Favorite – New York Yankees (+300) – I’m still a firm believer that pitching will win out in the end, but I see a Yankees lineup that can make any pitcher look foolish top to bottom, literally. Plus they’re the Yankees, they’ll pay any ransom to pick up another quality starter before the deadline, so I’ll take my 3-to-1 chance that the get their guy and win the AL Pennant.

Middle of the Road – Minnesota Twins (+900) – The Twins have been knocking on the door for the past several years, and this year’s team appears to be the same team with only Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka (who won the Japanese Pacific League batting title last season) as the lone replacement in the lineup. I’ll take the 9-to-1 and cheer that this year the Twins finally break through and capture another American League pennant.

Longshot – Oakland A’s (+1600) – Since I agonized over my choice between Los Angeles and Oakland for the AL West title, I’m going to hedge that bet with my final longshot pick in the American League pennant chase. At 16-to-1, they have the highest reward out of all of the teams I consider true “contenders,” and that’s what the long shot pick is all about, right.

This is part I of a II part article. Be sure to check out my 2011 National League Predictions too!

Free Picks

Betting

FAQ

FOR THE DIEHARD FAN