Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds Preview and Pick

Houston Astros (14-7) – Roy Oswalt -120, 8.5 O/U at Cincinnati Reds (24-20) – Micah Owings +110, 8.5 O/U, Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio, 7:10 PM EST, Tuesday

by Badger of Predictem.com

Houston Astros right-hander Roy Oswalt will try and continue his dominance of the Cincinnati Reds tonight at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati when the Astros and Reds get together for game two in the series.

Oswalt, who is 23-1 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 28 starts throughout his career versus the Reds, will try for his third win over the Reds already this year, as he outdueled Johnny Cueto twice back in April.

But the Reds do have a fighting chance. They’ve won two in a row and three of their last four, including the series opener yesterday on Memorial Day by an 8-5 score. Cincinnati scored five in the first inning, Jonny Gomes went 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs, and Aaron Harang scattered his 10 hits and a walk over five innings and only allowed three runs as the Reds held on for the victory.

Tonight the Reds will counter with last night’s pinch-hitter Micah Owings. Okay, he’s also a right-hander too, but Owings will give the Reds an extra stick in the lineup as they try and break the hold Oswalt has on them.

Oddsmakers have opened with Oswalt and the Astros as -120 favorites on the moneyline, making Owings and the Reds +110 on the dimeline. The over/under total opened at 8.5 and is still there at most offshore sportsbooks on the Web.

Oswalt will be happy to face the Reds right now, since he’s been pitching well but getting outdueled in his last few outings by Milwaukee’s Jeff Suppan and the Cubs Randy Wells. He’s 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last three games, but he’s only gone six innings in each of them (18.1) and the Astros have lost two of those three contests.

The Reds just bring out his best though, plus he’s held the Reds lineups over the years to just a .231 batting average and a measly . 288 on-base percentage too. In his 28 starts the Astros have gone 23-5 for a ticket-cashing 82.1 percent cover rate.

Owings had a stinker in his last outing versus the Phillies, as he gave up five runs on six hits and three walks and only lasted three innings of a 12-5 loss. Prior to that he had pitched well in back-to- back games against the Padres and D-Backs.

Owings bat in the lineup (.280 BA, .600 SLG in 25 ABs) will help the Reds counter for the loss of first baseman Joey Votto, who has been relegated to just pinch-hitting duties as he battles and inner ear issue.

The Astros have their own issues on offense, as they have now lost five straight and seven of their last 10 games. The ‘Stros are only scoring 3 runs per game during the five-game slide and in turn have allowed the opponent six runs a game during the same stretch. Not the way winning baseball is played, that’s for sure.

On top of Oswalt being a money pick against the Reds, the under has been a solid wager as well. But that betting trend is deceiving since the under is 11-3 in the last 14 head-to-head, but two of the three non-covers were at Great American Ball Park and the Reds home park has actually played the opposite way in series’ with the ‘Stros (over is 5-3 in last 8).

Badger’s Pick: If there was ever a chance for the Reds to snap the curse of Oswalt, tonight could be the night. The Astros are scuffling, while the Reds are on a roll. But +110 isn’t enough for me to go against what has been a sure thing for too long, so I’m taking Oswalt. Take the Astros at -120 in a game that goes over the total as well.

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