Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Preview and Pick

Atlanta Braves (15-16) – Derek Lowe +185, 7 O/U at New York Mets (17-13) – Johan Santana -195, 7 O/U, Citi Field, Oakland, N.Y., 7:10 PM EST, Monday

by Badger of Predictem.com

With only four games in Major League Baseball tonight there will surely be plenty of action on and attention focused at Citi Field in New York, as it hosts Monday’s marquee pitching matchup of Mets ace Johan Santana against rival Atlanta Braves ace Derek Lowe.

The Mets are the hottest team in baseball right now as they are winners of seven straight and 8 of their last 10 games, including a two-game series sweep of the Braves a week ago for wins one and two of the current streak. The Mets followed that with sweeps of Philadelphia (2 games) and Pittsburgh over the weekend, outscoring both teams by a 43-to-13 margin.

The Braves have played good baseball since that two-game hiccup against the Mets as well, sweeping a two-game set with Florida before winning two-of-three over the weekend against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Oddsmaker has installed the Mets in their usual favorites role when Santana is on the bump, listed at -195 at www.5Dimes.com and other sportsbooks that offer dimelines. Other offshore sportsbooks can have Santana as high as -210. The Braves and Lowe are an incredible value as a rare underdog, listed at +185 to +170 depending where you go. The over/under total is listed at 7.

The extra attention on a New York game is justified tonight because both Santana and Lowe have been worthy of the “ace” moniker this season.

Santana is just 4-1 in his six starts, but he’s been absolutely filthy with a matching 0.91 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and 54 strikeouts in just 39.2 innings. Last time out he allowed just two hits and three walks with 10 K’s in seven innings of a 1-0 victory over the Phillies.

Santana has yet to beat the Braves in his career, spanning five starts, with an 0-3 record and a 2.76 ERA.

Lowe is also 4-1 on the season, but he’s made seven starts and the Braves are 5-2 in those games. Lowe gave up a season-high six runs last time out, but the Braves still won the game 8-6 over the Marlins, which may explain why the odds are so heavily in favor of Santana in this matchup.

It also doesn’t help that Lowe has only faced the Mets twice, and the last time he did when he was a Dodger when he gave up nine runs and 10 hits in three lackluster innings of a 13-9 Mets victory.

Lowe will have to deal with a Mets lineup that’s collectively getting hot at the same time, scoring 6.1 runs per game during the seven-game streak (5.03 season average). An overlooked facet to the Mets offensive attack is their running game, ranked 3rd in MLB with 27, which can often provide the difference in tight games and pitcher duels.

Just for perspective, Atlanta is dead-last in steals with only six as a team, so don’t expect Santana to have to worry about throwing over. The good news is that Atlanta has been scoring runs lately, notching 12 in the two-game sweep of Florida and adding 14 more in the three- game set in Philly. Casey Kotchman is hot, and is also 3-for-5 lifetime against Santana, so tonight’s game isn’t going to be automatic for Santana and the Mets.

Atlanta had their struggles at old Shea Stadium, going 2-6 in their last eight games there, but the Braves have yet to play in new Citi Field.

Badger’s Pick: This one should be a dandy. Lowe’s sinker should be heavy in the cool weather tonight. Santana will be Santana, so I’m laying the -125 on the under of 7. Take the under of 7.

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