Toronto Blue Jays (27-15) – Robert Ray +160, 10 O/U at Boston Red Sox (23-16) – Jon Lester -170, 10 O/U, Fenway Park, Boston, Mass., 7:10 PM EST, Thursday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Toronto Blue Jays will hand the ball to rookie right-hander Robert Ray Thursday night as they try and salvage the final game of a crucial three-game series in Fenway Park. The Red Sox will counter with lefty Jon Lester as they try and continue their climb up the American League East standings and keep the positive momentum in their clubhouse.
If the three-game set with the Red Sox was supposed to be the measuring stick of whether or not the Blue Jays are for real, well, the Sox are drubbing the Jays with that stick. After taking the opener on Tuesday in a 2-1 nail-biter, the Sox cruised to an easy 8-3 victory last night when a six-run 5th-inning broke the game wide open. The Red Sox have reeled in the first-place Jays in the process and trimmed their lead down to 2.5 games in the AL East.
Plus, there are all sorts of positive energy coming out of the Red Sox dugout right now too. Designated hitter David Ortiz finally hit his first homerun of the season yesterday, Kevin Youkilis returned from the DL to go 3-for-5, and pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka is scheduled to start the first game of the Sox interleague series with the New York Mets Friday. All signs are pointing toward a Red Sox resurgence as the calendar is poised to flip to June.
The Blue Jays, who came into the series fresh off of a four-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox, must be wondering what’s going on. They pounded out 14 hits in their loss last night, but haven’t been able to get runners to the plate in the first two games of the series. And to top it off, they’ll be asking a rookie with only three games of major league experience to try and stop the slide tonight.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting that to happen though, as they’ve staked the Red Sox and Lester as large -170 favorites on the moneyline tonight. Ray and the Jays are +160 underdogs on the dimeline, and the over/under total is listed at 10 at most offshore sportsbooks.
The large odds in favor of the Sox is sort of surprising considering Lester has been terrible his last few outings. In fact, he’s been sketchy all season long, but he’s been really bad of late. In his last two starts the lefty has allowed 18 hits and 13 runs in just 10 innings of work, and both games ended as losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle. On the season Lester is 2-4 with a 6.51 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP and a .365 opponents’ on-base percentage, but the Sox are just 4-4 in his eight starts.
Lester’s career numbers versus the Jays don’t exactly inspire confidence that he’ll turn it around either, as he is 1-2 with a low 3.94 ERA in five starts against the AL East rivals. The Jays low .212 batting average and .318 OBP versus Lester is something for Sox fans to hang their hat on though.
Ray, who was brought up in early May when the Blue Jays starters began dropping like flies, has done an decent job in his three major- league starts. Overall he is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but his best start of the season by far was his last one last Saturday when he went 8 innings and allowed just three hits and one run in a 2-1 victory over the White Sox.
But the White Sox lineup pales in comparison to the Red Sox, and along with the Fenway faithful and positive vibes coming from the opposing dugout, tonight’s game is sure to be Ray’s first major test as a true big league pitcher.
With last night’s win the Red Sox have now won three straight and six of the last seven games against the Blue Jays, including five of the last six at Fenway.
With the powerful offenses both the Jays (5.60 r/g – 3rd; .286 ba – 2nd) and the Red Sox (5.38 – 8th; .273 – 6th) have, it’s surprising to note that the under is 7-3 in the last 10 games head-to-head at Fenway.
Badger’s Pick: I like Lester and the Red Sox to keep their surge going again tonight, but at -170 it’s too much wood to lay in my opinion. Not with the way Lester has been pitching. I expect the Jays bats to break out of their Fenway funk tonight too, so I’m taking the over of 10.
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