Atlanta Braves (43-48) – Tim Hudson +105, 7.5 O/U at Los Angeles Dodgers (44-46) – Derek Lowe -125, 7.5 O/U, Dodger Stadium, 10:10 PM EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers will play the rubber match in their three-game set Wednesday with a headline pitching matchup, as Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe go toe-to-toe for the series win in Dodger Stadium.
The series has been exciting for fans so far, as the Dodgers won game one 3-0 on Monday when Hiroki Kuroda nearly no-hit the Braves. But the Tribe offense rebounded nicely with 12 hits and two Brian McCann homeruns in last night’s 9-3 victory in game two.
Now it’s Hudson (9-6, 3.19) versus Lowe (6-8, 4.02) in the finale.
Baseball oddsmakers opened the game with the Dodgers as slight -125 home favorites and the Braves as +105 underdogs, with a 7.5 over/ under total. Shop around because you should be able to find odds like -115/+105 at some sportsbooks and a few sportsbooks in Las Vegas too as the line moves.
Lowe gave up five runs in five innings his last time out Friday against San Francisco, but the Dodgers still won the game anyway by a score of 10-7. His win/loss record is deceiving as he has turned in seven quality starts in his last 10 tries, but he did get knocked around for five runs in just 4.1 innings back on April 18th in a 6-1 loss to the same Braves lineup.
Hudson has a strong history versus the Dodgers (5-1, 4.07 ERA in nine starts), and is coming off of a seven-inning, one-run allowed performance versus the Astros in a 6-2 win last time out. Hudson will also be going for his 10th win before the All-Star game tonight, if the extra motivation is even needed.
Los Angeles is 6-4 in their last 10 games, but a strong 6-2 clip in last eight games where they’ve been scoring 4.8 runs per game (up from season average of 4.12). Meanwhile, the Braves are 3-7 in their last 10 and are struggling to score more than four runs a game prior to last night’s offensive outburst. The Braves will need more output from last night’s heroes (McCann 2 HR, Mark Kotsay 3-for-4, Yunel Escobar 3-run double) if the hope to break out of LA with a series win.
There are some conflicting numbers when you look at both team’s over/ under betting trends. Surprisingly, the score has gone over in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings in Dodger Stadium.
That flies in the face of the current trend, as the Dodgers have stayed under the total in eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 16 overall in their home ballpark. The Braves problems scoring runs has made the under a solid 37-15-1 in their last 53 road games.
Badger’s Pick: I see a pitchers duel in Dodgers Stadium tonight, so the under is a solid bet. But I like the price on Hudson, so I’m going to take the underdog Braves to sneak away with a win. Take Atlanta at +105.
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