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Atlanta Braves (23-22) – Kenshin Kawakami -108, 8 O/U at San Francisco Giants (22-23) – Randy Johnson -102, 8 O/U, AT&T Park, San Francisco, Calif., 10:15 PM EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
San Francisco lefty Randy Johnson will make another attempt at notching career win No. 299 tonight at AT&T Park when the Giants try and complete the three-game sweep of the visiting Atlanta Braves. The Braves will counter with Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami.
Johnson has been a roller coaster all season, unable to string together consecutive good starts all year long and as a result he hasn’t earned a victory since his outing against the Washington Nationals back on May 11th. When the future Hall of Famer has been on, he can still deal with the best of them (3-1, 3.03 ERA in six of his nine starts), but when he’s not on he is very pedestrian (14.18 ERA in other 3 starts).
The Giants will also be going for their first series sweep since early April. Last night Tim Lincecum held the Braves to just five hits in a 4-0 victory by the Giants. Either way, the Giants will be sad to see the Braves leave town tonight as they have now won four straight versus them and six of their last seven dating back into last season.
Baseball Sportsbooks are predicting a tough challenge for Johnson and the Giants tonight however, as they are listing the home team as slim -102 “underdogs” tonight with the Braves and Kawakami as -108 favorites on the moneyline. The over/under total is listed at 8 at most offshore sportsbooks on the Internet.
The odds may be set against the Giants and Johnson tonight because he is due for another dud start, that is if his performance this season of on one start and then off the next holds true. In his last outing against the Mariners, Johnson pitched 5.1 effective innings allowing just 6 hits and a run before exiting a game the Mariners eventually won 2-1 in 12 innings.
But his history against the Braves would indicate otherwise, as he is a stellar 2-0 with a microscopic 0.41 ERA in his last three starts against Atlanta. He also threw a perfect game against the Braves back in 2004 when he was a Diamondback.
Kawakami has also had his share of issues this season, but he too seems to have corrected some flaws in his game recently. In his last outing the righty held the torrid Toronto Blue Jays lineup to just three hits in eight shutout innings of a 1-0 victory (over Roy Halladay). But if you are looking at his overall numbers (3-5, 4.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) you would not be impressed at all.
The key to Kawakami’s resurgence has been control, as his .095 WHIP would indicate in his last three outings. Over that span, he’s only allowed 13 hits and five walks (5 runs) in 19 innings of work.
Getting a read on these two team’s offenses will be a real chore tonight, because they seem to be going in opposite directions since the series started Monday. The Giants, who came into the series as losers of five of six, have been crushing the ball and have been led by outfielder Aaron Rowand who is hitting .375 with 2 homeruns, 3 doubles and five RBIs in the last seven games. Overall the Giants are 29th in the league in scoring, averaging just 3.91 runs a game due to their league-worst power numbers (.672 OPS, 25 HR).
The Braves on the other hand came into the series as winners of five of six and were stroking the ball, but that has since changed as they have only mustered 11 hits and two runs in the two games thus far. Chipper Jones did return to the lineup last night and had one of the Braves five hits, he’s also has solid career numbers versus Johnson (. 394, 6 HR), so his return could just be the spark the Braves need.
As far as betting trends go, the under seems to be a very solid play tonight. The under is 7-2 in San Francisco’s last nine games overall. The under is also 6-2 in Kawakami’s eight starts this season, and 5-2 in the last seven games between these two teams head-to-head. Also, home plate umpire Bill Miller is a pitcher’s ump, as the under is 6-1 in his last seven games behind the dish.
Badger’s Pick: I went with the trend yesterday (taking Oswalt) instead of my gut, and it backfired. So I’m sticking with my gut here. Randy Johnson will deal tonight and get #299, but so will Kawakami. The Giants sweep the series in a low-scoring affair. Take San Francisco at -102.
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