Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves

Milwaukee Brewers (42-34) – Dave Bush +105, 9.5 O/U at Atlanta Braves (38-40) – Charlie Morton -125, 8.5 O/U, Turner Field, 7:05 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

Young Atlanta Braves right-hander Charlie Morton is faced with a pivotal start Tuesday night versus the Milwaukee Brewers in game two of a three-game set at Turner Field.

Morton not only has to handle the pressure of just his third start in the major leagues against a hot Brewers lineup that has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, but he has to help the Braves try and save-face after getting game one of the series shoved up their collective you- know-what’s.

The Brewers won the opener Monday when Ben Sheets dominated, period. Sheets threw a four-hit complete-game gem and retired the last 16 Braves hitters straight in Milwaukee’s 4-1 victory. Now the Brewers turn to Dave Bush, who carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning in his last start (a 8-7 win over Toronto), to try to give them another quality start (nine of the last 11 Brewers starters have gone at least six innings) in game two Tuesday.

The early line at most offshore sportsbooks have the Braves as -125 on the moneyline, with Milwaukee as slight +105 underdogs at most places but as high as +115 at the Las Vegas Hilton and 5Dimes. The over/under opened at 9.5.

The clear task at hand for Morton is to be more like his first MLB start (6 IP, 3R, 5H, 1BB) and less like his second start (5IP, 5H, 4BB but still only 3R). He’ll have to get more control to stop a Brewer offense that is hitting homeruns again (100 total – 4th in MLB).

Bush on the other hand has had success versus the Braves in the past. He has been solid in two previous starts (14 IP, 2 R for 1.93 ERA) despite no decisions in either contest. The big question for Bush is whether he figured something out when he flirted with a no-no last time out, or if he will revert back to the guy who was getting lit up (9 runs in 10 IP his previous two starts) and in danger of being replaced in the rotation.

Bush will have the advantage of facing a Chipper Jones-less Atlanta lineup, since the leagues leading hitter reinjured his quad and is questionable for the entire series. Without Jones the Braves have been struggling to score runs, as they have scored less than four runs in nine of their last 10 games (5-5).

The one betting trend that jumps off the screen at you is the under.

Not only does Turner Field play to less runs (the under is 42-19-3 in the last 64 overall), but all four of the head-to-head meetings between the Brewers and Braves this season have stayed under the total. The under has also been solid on Tuesdays as well, as the 9-2-1 record in the last 12 indicates.

Picking a side is harder, as the Braves still own one of the league’s best home records (36-15 in last 51), while the Brewers are one of the hottest teams around right now with eight wins in their last 11 games including a 4-1 record in their last five away from Miller Park.

Badger’s Pick: Early action has been all on the Braves, as the moneyline has shot up to -135 for the Braves and +125 for the Brewers already. With Bush’s history versus the Braves, and the increased odds due to heavy public money on Atlanta, I’m taking the Brewers as +125 underdogs here.

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