Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Preview and Pick

Milwaukee Brewers (1-1) – Manny Parra +105, 7.5 O/U at San Francisco Giants (1-1) – Matt Cain -125, 7.5 O/U, AT&T Park, San Francisco, Calif., 7:05 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The Milwaukee Brewers will send young lefty Manny Parra to the mound Thursday when the Brewers hope to slip out of AT&T Park with the series win, but the San Francisco Giants will counter with a young stud of their own when righty Matt Cain tries to win the rubber match for the G-men at home.

Parra hopes to duplicate what his fellow staff-mate Yovanni Gallardo did to the Giants yesterday, as Gallardo went 6 and 2/3-innings allowing two runs on six hits and two walks in the Brewers 4-2 victory. Gallardo also drilled a 1-2 fastball from Randy Johnson deep to left to help his own cause as the Brewers finished with only five hits as a team.

The Giants are hoping for results more like opening day, as they pounded out 12 hits en route to a 10-6 victory Tuesday on a day their ace Tim Lincecum didn’t make it out of the third inning. Run totals like that would be a good thing for Matt Cain, as his low 3.76 ERA last season was covered by little or no run-support and thus he finished with a lousy 8-14 record.

Oddsmakers opened the Giants and Cain as large -140 favorites on the moneyline, but the number has moved quite a bit since it debuted. San Francisco and Cain are now anywhere from -125 favorites to a home- team friendly -109 at 5Dimes.com. The Brewers and Parra can be found anywhere from +105 to minus-105 depending on which Internet sportsbook you play with.

The over/under total opened at 8 and has moved down the hook to 7.5 at just about every offshore sportsbook you can find.

The Brewers offense has played a little slow, but steady throughout the series so far with 15 hits, two homeruns and 10 runs scored in two games. They could be due for a breakout game, as only Ryan Braun has had multiple hits in both games and guys like Cory Hart and J.J. Hardy haven’t even contributed yet. Cain faced the Crew once last season and lost despite only giving up 4 runs in six innings in the 9-1 Giants loss.

Gallardo stymied the Giants offense last night, but it still has pounded out 18 hits in two games including Tuesday’s three-homer output. Parra has fared very well against the Giants in his young career, as he is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in two starts last year.

Both bullpens have pitched well early on, as the Brewers new set-up/ closer combo of Todd Coffey and Carlos Villanueva passed its first test last night. While the Giants pen has only given up three runs in 10 innings of work behind short starts by Lincecum and Johnson.

It’s dangerous to read too much into betting trends during the first few weeks as its often a reflection of last year’s team and not the team you’re betting on this season, but that said the Brewers are 7-1 in the last eight games versus the G-men. The Brewers are only 3-11 in their last 14 road games though.

San Francisco has betting trends that favor an over bet on the total. The Giants have gone over the total in 8 of their last 10 as favorites, and the over is 6-2 as home favorites on the moneyline in AT&T Park. The Brewers and Giants also have a history of playing over the total, as the over is 20-7-2 in their last 29 head-to-head.

Badger’s Pick: I like the pitching matchup in this game a lot, as I think both starters will limit the damage to just a few runs if they allow any at all. A few 8th-inning or 9th-inning runs will be the difference in this game, but the game will still stay under the total in another 4-2 Brewers win. Take the under 7.5 and/or the Brewers as +105 dogs.

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