Milwaukee Brewers (34-29) – Dave Bush +113, 9.5 O/U at Cleveland Indians (29-36) – Carl Pavano -123, 9.5 O/U, Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio, 7:05 PM EST, Monday, ESPN
by Badger of Predictem.com
Two former American League Central foes renew their rivalry tonight in Jacobs Field in Cleveland when the Indians and right-hander Carl Pavano host the Milwaukee Brewers and Dave Bush in the opener of a three-game interleague series.
The Indians come into the game playing the best, as they have now won three series in row with Cliff Lee’s masterful 3-0 victory over Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday night. Lee’s gem gave the Indians two out of three over the Cards, matching their win total over the Royals and the White Sox the pervious 10 days.
The Brewers on the other hand are scuffling, coming off of a disappointing 1-5 homestand in Miller Park. They lost Sunday’s game against the White Sox when closer Trevor Hoffman finally proved human and gave up a run, so if the Brewers haven’t hit rock bottom yet they are close.
Oddsmakers opened the game with Pavano and the Indians as -120 favorites, but the number has adjusted upwards to -123 to -125 at the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. The Brewers are +113 underdogs on the dimeline at 5Dimes.com. The over/under total is listed at 9.5 across the board at all of the books.
Pavano had an outing you’d like to forget last time out against the Royals, giving up nine runs on 11 hits (3 HR) in just 4.2 innings. But what made that start so bizarre was he threw a three-hit complete game shutout over the White Sox the start before, so he literally went from one extreme to the other in the matter of five days.
Which Pavano will it be this time? Well, he does have a history against the Brewers having eight career starts back when he was a Marlin, going 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA versus the Crew.
Bush has lost three of his last four starts and has dropped to 3-3 on the season, allowing 12 runs over 15 innings of work. Prior to his recent scuffles Bush was a solid bet, as the Brewers won six of his starts in row in April and May.
Bush also has faced the Indians before, with the most recent outing coming the last time these two teams played back in 2006. Bush went eight strong innings (4 H, 2 R) and outdueled Jake Westbrook for a 3-2 Brewers victory. Bush was not the winner however, so his 0-1 record and 3.00 ERA in three career starts is deceiving.
The Indians only scored 11 runs in the series with the Cards, and 12 runs in the Royals series before, so run production is still taking a backseat to pitching. Jhonny Peralta (2-for-3, 2B) and Mark DeRosa (HR, .267) have solid histories against Bush tonight.
The Brewers have multiple players in major funks and the result is only 20 runs scored in the entire six-game homestand just concluded (over 4 only once). On of those players in a big funk, Bill Hall, just happens to be 2-for-3 with a double and homerun off of Pavano so it’s possible he may get a rare start versus a right-hander.
Milwaukee swept the interleague series back in 2006 at Miller Park, but they also took two out of three in both the 2001 and 1999 seasons at Jacobs Field, so they’ve gotten the breaks of late in the series.
The under is 4-2 since 2001, 6-3 if you go back to 1999, and is 10-2-1 in the Indians last 13 interleague games.
Badger’s Pick: I think Pavano will have a bounce-back game and win a narrow one over Bush in a one-run game, so take Cleveland -115.
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