St. Louis Cardinals (6-2) – Chris Carpenter -136, 9 O/U at Arizona Diamondbacks (2-5) – Max Scherzer +126, 9 O/U, Chase Field, Phoenix, Ariz., 9:40 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Max Scherzer will have a big task ahead of him on Tuesday night when he makes his 2009 debut versus the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field.
Not only will the young pitcher be called upon to stop the Diamondbacks recent slide, as the D-Backs have lost five of their last six games, but he will also be facing the red-hot Cardinals and their ace Chris Carpenter.
The Cards ran their winning streak to five games last night with a 2-1 victory over the D-Backs in the series opener. Starter Todd Wellemeyer pitched seven solid innings giving up seven hits and just one run, and relievers Kyle McClellen, Dennys Reyes and Ryan Franklin pitched two perfect innings out of the bullpen to carry the Cardinals to victory.
Oddsmakers opened the game with Carpenter and the Cardinals as heavy -160 favorites on the moneyline. There are several offshore sportsbooks that still list the Cards as -160 favorites, but most of them have dropped the number down to -150 or lower. If you bet at a book that gives dimelines the number is even better, as sites like 5Dimes.com are listing the Cardinals as -136 favorites with the home Diamondbacks listed at +126.
The over/under total opened at 9 and has held firm, although there are a bunch of books that either haven’t released a total yet or have the total completely off the board.
Scherzer will have his hands full Tuesday for numerous reasons. To begin with, he will be making his first start of the season after getting shut down late in spring training due to shoulder fatigue. If pitching with questionable health isn’t enough, he has to face a flaming hot Cardinals offense that is batting over .300 as a team and is scoring over five runs per game so far this season.
And if that’s not enough pressure, the fact that he might have to be near perfect will also be in the back of his mind because he’s going to have to outduel Carpenter.
After missing almost all of the past two seasons with various arm injuries, Carpenter looked every bit like his former Cy Young self in his 2009 debut last Thursday pitching seven innings and giving up just one hit and one run (unearned) in the Cards 2-1 victory over the Pirates. He’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup that is only scoring three runs a game and is hitting a low .218 for the season (28th in MLB) so far.
Both pitchers have a limited history versus the opponent, Scherzer because he’s a rookie and Carpenter because he’s been injured so much. Scherzer went five innings and gave up seven hits and five runs in a 4-2 loss to the Cards last August in his early call-up from Triple-A. While Carpenter last faced Arizona all the way back in May of 2006, a 7-6 win by the D-backs in which he lasted six innings but gave up five hits and three runs (all unearned).
St. Louis is hoping their hot start helps to reverse their recent trend of losing away from Busch Stadium, as they were 3-13 in their last 16 road games before the series opening win. Coming into the series the Cards were just 1-8 in their last nine games at Chase Field, but they already made that 2-8 with last night’s victory. The D-Backs only have two games left on their nine-game homestand to start the 2009 season, so they need to turn things around in a hurry if they hope to get hot before going out on the road.
Badger’s Pick: The Cardinals pound right-handed pitching (6-0 in last six games vs. a righty) and Scherzer is coming off of an injury in spring training. When Scherzer runs out of gas, which could happen quickly due to his lack of recent work, the D-Backs bullpen has been worked hard so far (18 IP) and has been knocked around too (1.67 WHIP, 7.50 ERA). Carpenter’s injury history scares me a little, but at -136 on the dimeline, I’ll take a chance he’s as sharp as he was in his opener. Take St. Louis at -136.
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