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St. Louis Cardinals (31-27) – Chris Carpenter -115, 7 O/U at Florida Marlins (28-31) – Josh Johnson +105, 7 O/U, LandShark Stadium, Miami, Florida, 7:10 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
A pair of tall, strike-throwing staff aces will duel on the mound Tuesday night at the newly named LandShark Stadium in Miami when the St. Louis Cardinals and Chris Carpenter open a three-game series against the Florida Marlins and young righty Josh Johnson.
The 6-foot-6 Carpenter will try and stop the Cardinals four-game losing streak tonight, the longest slide the Cards have had this season. St. Louis enters the series still licking their wounds from an embarrassing four-game sweep at home to Colorado where the Rockies outscored the Cards by a whopping 33-to-9 margin. Prior to the Rockies sweep, the Cards split a four-game series with the Reds and lost two of three at San Francisco, so they are not playing very good baseball of late.
The 6-foot-7 Johnson has already outdueled the Mets Johan Santana twice this season, so don’t expect the youngster to be intimidated tonight. The Marlins are playing good baseball too, as they earned a split of the San Francisco series last night when rookie Sean West took a no-hitter into the 7th-inning of a 4-0 victory over Randy Johnson. The Marlins won three of four from Milwaukee prior to that, so they are already 5-3 on an 11-game home stand that ends with the Cards.
Oddsmakers are anticipating a great duel just like the rest of us, as they have set St. Louis and Carpenter as slim -115 favorites on the moneyline. That makes Florida and Johnson a great value at +105 on the dimeline. The over/under total is listed at 7 across the board at all of the online sportsbooks taking action on the game.
Carpenter is certainly dealing like his Cy Young days of old, going 4-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his six starts, but that is the key phrase … six starts. Carpenter missed time with a ribcage strain already and always seems to be one pitch away from the DL. The Cards are 4-2 in his starts, including wins in his last two outings where he’s allowed just three runs and nine hits over 15 innings. Perhaps the most impressive stat for Carpenter is his .184 opponents’ on-base percentage, that my friends is dealing.
In his eight career starts against the Marlins Carpenter has been just as tough, holding the Fish to a .232 batting average and a measly.320 slugging percentage (13 extra-base hits in 231 PA) while going 3-2 with a 1.92 ERA.
But if you think for a second that Florida doesn’t have a chance in this game against Carpenter, then you don’t know much about Johnson.
Johnson has flown under the national radar for most of the year, but at 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, you can’t call yourself a true baseball fan if you haven’t heard of him yet. The Marlins are 9-3 in his 12 starts, including his last three outings where he’s allowed just 7 runs in 21.2 innings.
Johnson has made just one start against St. Louis in his career, giving up seven hits and three runs in 6.2 innings (0-1, 4.05 ERA). The big blow in that game was a two-run homerun by Albert Pujols, someone he’ll have to be careful of tonight, but Johnson has not given up a homerun in any of his last three starts.
The Cards offense is struggling right now anyway, including Pujols. St. Louis is dead last in runs scored since May and have only scored more than three twice in their last 12 games overall.
The Cards did however win five of the seven games against the Marlins last year, including a 3-1 mark in what is now called LandShark Stadium, which makes the Cards 9-2 in their last 11 games played in Miami.
All but one of those seven games last season stayed under the total, so the under is looking good again tonight with the scheduled pitchers duel on tap.
Badger’s Pick: If you like pitching, this is going to be a dandy. I don’t see either team having much success on offense tonight, so under 7 is a solid wager. But I’m going to take Carpenter at the low odds of -115 to outduel Johnson in a 1-0 or 2-1 type of game. Take St. Louis at -115.
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