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St. Louis Cardinals (22-12) – Adam Wainwright +105, 9 O/U at
Colorado Rockies (12-21) – Jeff Francis -125, 9 O/U, Coors Field,
8:35 PM EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
If history is any indication, Wednesday night’s game three of the four-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies should be a pitchers duel between the Cards Adam Wainwright and Rockies Jeff Francis.
Wainwright, who has emerged as the Cards most reliable and consistent starter in 2008, has allowed just one earned run in 10.1 innings versus the Rockies in his young career. Wainwright is 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA so far this season, but the Cards have won five of his six starts this season including the last three in a row.
Francis, who has struggled so far in 2008 after pitching so well for them down the stretch last season, has enjoyed facing the Cardinals in his career. Francis is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his two starts at Coors Field versus the Cards. Those numbers are opposite of his numbers this season so far (0-3, 5.26), but Francis has been the victim of bad timing and low run support in many of his starts this year as they are just 1-5 with Francis on the bump.
Most offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Francis and the Rockies as -125 chalks on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are listed as slight +105 underdogs in the game. The over/under total for the game opened at 9.
Despite both starting pitcher’s success against the opponent in their careers, the oddsmaker’s line in this game is curious at first glance. It’s curious because these two teams are going in opposite directions in the standings.
St. Louis, who most people figured would have a long year due to pitching injuries and a no-name lineup, are 22-12 and just a half- game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the best record in baseball. The Cards have won eight of the last 10 games including the first two games of the series at Coors.
Meanwhile, the Rockies are off to a 12-21 start this season, a season most people figured would be a continuation of last year’s miracle playoff run. The Rockies are in the midst of a huge slide, losing 13 of their last 16 games overall to tie the San Diego Padres for the worst record in baseball.
It’s no secret that as Albert Pujols goes, so go the Cards. Pujols is picking up right where he left off last season with a .348 average and 24 RBIs, but he is getting a lot of support from a few surprises in the Cards lineup. Center fielder Rick Ankiel leads the team with six homeruns (including one last night), and outfielder Ryan Ludwick has hit safely in six straight games and is batting .349.
Colorado is struggling on offense, and is trying to cope with the loss of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki who is out till the All-Star break with a torn quad muscle. Garrett Atkins (.319, 6 HR, 22 RBI) and Matt Holliday (.305, 5 HR, 19 RBI) are swinging good sticks for the Rockies, but they are about the only consistent threats in the Rockies everyday lineup right now.
There are a few betting trends to keep an eye on in this game tonight.
The Cardinals enjoy the friendly air of Coors Field, as they are 11-5 in the light Rocky Mountain air since the 2004 season.
The Rockies are struggling no doubt, but the over is a strong 6-2 in the last eight games at Coors as the favorite. The Cardinals have gone over the total in six of their last eight versus NL West teams as well, but their strong starting pitching this season so far has kept them under the total in eight of their last 12 overall.
If this game goes according to the pitcher’s history, and the score is still tight when it gets handed over to the bullpens, it favors the Cardinals right now. The Rockies bullpen has a 5.40 ERA in their last three games, compared to the Cards 3.38 mark over the same span.
Badger’s Pick: I’m quickly turning into a St. Louis believer this year. I know that Francis is the Rockies ace, so he will be counted on to stop the slide. But Wainwright is arguably the Cards ace too, and I think the Cards are playing with supreme confidence right now. Take St. Louis as the underdog tonight for the better value.
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