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Chicago Cubs (34-31) – Ryan Dempster +138, 7.5 O/U at Atlanta Braves (32-36) – Javier Vazquez -148, 7.5 O/U, Turner Field, Atlanta, Ga., 7:10 PM EST, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Thanks to a rainout back on June 4th, the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves will play in an add-on game on today’s MLB docket when right- hander’s Ryan Dempster and Javier Vazquez duel in the rescheduled game tonight at Turner Field.
Believe it or not, tonight’s makeup has become a very important game for both teams.
The Cubs have all the momentum in the world right now, winning four straight with three of them in walk-off fashion. But the quick trip to Atlanta tonight will add miles onto would have been a short interleague road trip that sends them through Detroit before a weekend battle with the White Sox at US Cellular Field. The Cubbies have to keep their recent mojo going, and tonight’s game is the one that sets the tone.
The Braves return home looking to get a break from their recent nine- game road trip, a 3-6 road trip that ended ugly on Sunday when the Red Sox stole the game late on a walk-off homerun by Nick Green, 6-5. The Braves outplayed the BoSox on Sunday with nothing to show for it, and the loss included umpire ejections for Braves reliever Eric O’Flaherty, Chipper Jones and manager Bobby Cox.
Turning things around at home is nearing the critical stage for the Braves, who are four games under .500 and 4-and-a-half games out of first in the NL East. Getting it started with a win against the Cubs tonight is essential as well, because the Braves nine-game homestand coming up includes games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.
Oddsmakers have staked the Braves and Vazquez as somewhat surprising -148 favorites on the moneyline, considering the Cubs are usually a big public play. That makes Dempster and the Cubs an enticing +138 underdog on the dimeline.
The over/under total is listed at 7.5 at a majority of the online sportsbooks, but there are still enough books that also have it listed at 8, so shop around to get the extra half-point either way if you like betting on totals.
Vazquez has pitched better than the numbers would indicate so far in June, but he and the Braves have nothing to show for it. Vazquez has three losses and two no-decisions in his last five starts, but the Braves have lost all five of them because of just 1.6 runs of support from the offense. Vazquez gave up four runs in eight innings last time out versus Cincinnati, but the Reds still won 4-3.
He’s had his issues against the Cubs in the past as well, especially Derrek Lee. Vazquez is 3-4 with a 5.17 ERA and .328 OBP in 16 career starts versus the Cubs, and Lee has feasted on the righty (.400, 7 2B, 3 HR, 16 RBI) in his 50 career at-bats on Vazquez. Lee is also fresh off of an 8-game homestand where he hit .382 (13-for-34) with 4 homers and 11 RBIs, so if you have him in fantasy leagues you might want to makes sure he’s in your lineup tonight with those numbers.
Dempster has struggled of late, although he’s had run-support issues to deal with as well. Dempster lost his last time out versus the White Sox despite giving up just three runs in six innings in a 4-1 loss. The time before that he dealt seven innings and gave up one run in a no-decision, and gave up three in a 4-3 loss the game before that, so you get the picture.
Dempster is 2-10 with a 5.31 ERA in 14 career starts against the Braves, but in his last start against them in June of last year he threw a complete-game four-hitter in a 7-2 Cubs victory.
The two teams split the series prior to the rainout back in June, so technically this game is a rubber match. The Braves won the first game of that series to snap a six-game losing streak against the Cubbies, but they are still just 1-7 in their last eight head-to-head.
The over has a good betting trend going for it too. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and is also 6-1-1 in the last eight games played at Turner Field.
Badger’s Pick: Both pitchers are due, overdue actually, but I can’t pass up Dempster as such a big underdog. Take the Cubs +138 tonight.
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