Cincinnati Reds (13-12) – Edison Volquez +110, 8 O/U at Florida Marlins (15-11) – Chris Volstad -120, 8 O/U, Dolphins Stadium, Miami, Florida, 7:10 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
It has to be rare to get two starting pitchers with a last name that begins with the letter V in the same game, but that’s exactly what will happen Tuesday night in Dolphins Stadium when the Cincinnati Reds send Edison Volquez to the mound against the Florida Marlins Chris Volstad.
Both teams will need their starters to pitch deep into the game as well, as both teams burned up almost every arm in their bullpen in last night’s 14-inning marathon eventually won by the Marlins, 3-2. A walk by catcher Ronny Paulino to start the bottom of the 14th ended up hurting the Reds, as he came around to score on a throwing error at first on a potential double play grounder.
All told the Marlins used six pitchers and all 15 position players to get the hard-fought victory, while the Reds burned through seven different pitchers and all 15 position players in the hard to swallow defeat. With so many players playing in a game that ended just short of five hours long, it should be interesting to see which team rebounds to take the conclusion of the short two-game series tonight.
Oddsmakers opened the game with Volstad and the Marlins as -120 favorites at home and the number has held despite the long game the night before, although there are a few online sportsbooks that list the Marlins as -130 to -135 favorites. The Reds are +110 underdogs on the dimeline, and the over/under total is listed at either 8 or 7.5 depending on where you wager on small ball.
Volstad is probably better equipped to handle the extra strain of trying to go deep into the game, or at least his body of work this season would lead you to believe that is true. For the year the young righty is 2-0 with a solid 2.67 ERA, a microscopic 0.99 WHIP, and a . 258 opponents’ on-base percentage. He has been knocked around a little bit in two of his last three starts (13 H, 6 BB, 8 R, 18.1 IP), but his last time out he was strong against the Cubs lasting seven innings allowing just three hits and two runs in what turned out to be an 8-2 Marlin win.
The Marlins are 4-1 in Volstad’s starts this season, and he has never faced the Reds in his short career either.
The Reds need Volquez to pitch like he did in his last start, when he was filthy against the Astros going eight innings allowing just one hit and one walk and no runs in a 3-0 shutout victory. Volquez is 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA on the season, but he does tend to lose control at times as his 1.41 WHIP and .336 opponents’ on-base percentage would suggest.
In his last three outings Volquez seems to have found his arm angle and his touch, as he is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s also pitched well against the Fish in his two previous career starts against them, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He has given up 10 hits and seven walks in just 12 innings (a 1.417 WHIP), so both wins haven’t exactly been pretty.
Neither team is lighting up the scoreboard on offense right now, as the Marlins are in the top half of the league with an average of 4.92 runs per game (13th in MLB), while the Reds are near the bottom of baseball with just a 3.88 runs per game average (27th). Both teams hit just .241 as a team (tied for 27th), so there is a good chance that either or both of the starters can last into the late innings.
So far this season the Reds are a solid 9-5 on the road including last night’s loss. They are also 9-3 in their last 12 games against the Marlins head-to-head.
The Marlins are just 6-4 at home this season, but seven of their 10 games at Dolphins Stadium have gone over the total. In fact, prior to last night’s low-scoring affair, these two teams had gone over the total in eight straight games played in Florida. The over is also 4-1 in Volstad’s five starts this season.
Badger’s Pick: It seems like every pick I’ve made lately has gone opposite to what the conventional wisdom would dictate it should be. This game looks like a strong pitchers duel on paper, but I’m going the other way and taking the over of 7.5 (or 8) since Volstad has looked shoddy lately.
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