.gif&AffUrlID=80){kind=small}
Arizona Diamondbacks (15-5) - Dan Haren -105, 8 O/U at Los Angeles Dodgers (8-12) - Derek Lowe -105, 8 O/U, Dodger Stadium, 10:10 PM EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Arizona Diamondbacks already have a seven game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, so if the Dodgers hope to gain any ground they will have to start with Wednesday’s game in Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers will start this quick two-game set with Derek Lowe on the bump, while the D-Backs will counter with Dan Haren in what could be the best game on the card Wednesday.
Most offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Lowe and the Dodgers as -120 favorites, but it has quickly developed into a pick-em, as most places now list the game as -110 for each (or -105 for each side if you bet on a dimeline). The over/under total is listed at 8.
Lowe and the Dodgers have a big task in front of them if they hope to close some of the gap between the two squads. The Dodgers are reeling right now, coming home after a terrible five-game road trip in which they lost four times, including an 8-1 decision at Cincinnati yesterday.
Not only do they have to face the red-hot D-Backs, winners of six of their last seven, but they also will have to find a way to slow down the D-Back run machine. Arizona beat the Giants yesterday to make Brandon Webb MLB’s first five-game winner, scoring seven more runs to add to their league-leading total of 127.
Lowe should be up to the task though. He is 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA this season, but he hasn’t received much run support in his four previous starts. In fact, the Dodgers have scored just a total of two runs in three of his four starts this year.
Lowe is 3-6 with a 4.45 ERA in 12 career starts versus Arizona, and is coming off of his shortest outing of the season (4.1 IP, 5 R, 3 ER) in a 6-1 loss to Atlanta on Friday.
While Lowe has received little offensive help in his starts, in has been the exact opposite for D-Backs starter Dan Haren. Haren has enjoyed his first four starts in a D-Back uniform, as they have staked him to an early lead (12 first-inning runs - MLB leading 29 runs of support total) in all four of the games he’s climbed on the hill.
It’s not like Haren has needed it either, as he is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA so far in 2008 and allowed only three hits in eight innings last Friday in an 8-0 win over San Diego. Haren, who has only allowed opposing hitters a .200 average so far, allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits in six innings versus the Dodgers on April 7th in his only appearance versus them in his career.
The Dodgers will not only be looking to close ground on first place, but they’ll be seeking revenge as well. The D-Backs swept them earlier this month by outscoring them at a 23-to-11 clip. The Dodgers will need to score runs to reverse the trend, as they scored just one run in all four losses on the road in their last trip away from Dodger Stadium.
It’s no surprise that the over is a hot betting trend during the D- Backs scoring binge lately, cashing in at the window in eight of their last 11 overall.
The other betting trend that jumps at you is the fact that the Dodgers are just 2-10 in Lowe’s last 12 starts as a listed underdog. But that’s not much of a secret either, as it’s hard to win when you don’t score.
Badger’s Pick: This is as close to a no-brainer as it gets. D-Backs = hot! Dodgers = ice cold. And at basically even money, I’ll take Haren and the D-Backs one more time in this game. The Dodgers are due, but not against Haren in this situation. Take the Diamondbacks at a low -105 to -110 price here.
Editor's Picks - Free daily picks from our in-house umpire who grinds out profits by mostly playing underdogs.
Expert MLB Baseball Picks - Get free daily winning predictions from professional sports handicappers!
Dog of the Day - Each day we go to bat as your designated hitter and select what we believe to be the best underdog bet on the board!
Favorite of the Day - We'll predict the best favorite to bet on each day while trying to not get hit by a pitch! (The Vigorish)
Over/Under of the Day - Wagering on totals are underrated! There's a reason books have lower limits on them... because their easier to beat! We assess the wind, rain, umpire tendencies and a bunch of other variables in our quest to smash the bookie!
Line Movement - We're constantly on the phone in the dugout keeping an eye on line moves and steam plays. Is it public action or a steam play? Posted each afternoon by 5PM EST.
Consensus Picks - Check here daily to see what the public is betting and which games make good fades based on that information.
MLB Trends - Let the trend be your friend, but don't solely base your bet on it! MLB is one of few sports that trends actually have some value. We dig out the ones that "make cents."
Dimeline Sportsbooks - If your not betting at a sportsbook that offers dimlines your wasting money!
Overnight Lines - Bet on tomorrows games tonight. Get better value with opening lines and odds before the sharps hit them and suck the value out.
5Dimes - Offers 10 cent lines and college baseball betting!
Alternative Runlines - Also +2.5 runlines which turns MLB into a point spread sport!
Rules - Innings requirements, listed pitchers, action, rainouts, suspended games. We cover it all!
What is Whip in Baseball? - Ever seen the world WHIP associated with baseball stats? It's one of the most important factors in handicapping. Increase your winning percentage today by reading this article!
How do you Calculate ERA? - We've got the answer to a stat question asked by many.
How to Calculate Batting Average - We all know what it is but but how do you calculate it? Click and learn.
What is... - Answers to MANY questions regarding America's pastime and from around the diamond.
Famous Baseball Quotes - From Yogi Berra to Casey Stengel, we list some of the greatest words ever spoken on the diamond.