Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Preview and Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks (25-32) – Jon Garland +159, 7.5 O/U at San Diego Padres (26-30) – Jake Peavy -169, 7.5 O/U, Petco Park, San Diego, Calif., 10:05 PM EST, Monday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The San Diego Padres will try for the series split Monday at Petco Park with their ace Jake Peavy on the bump in the finale of a four- game set with National League West rival Arizona. The D-Backs will counter with right-hander Jon Garland as they try to continue their climb out of the NL West cellar.

The D-Backs won yesterday’s 18-inning marathon by attrition, 9-6, when Mark Reynolds hit a three-run homerun off of the Padres 10th and final pitcher of the game, infielder Josh Wilson. Arizona used eight pitchers in the win, with four guys combining to hold the Padres hitless throughout the extra nine innings of the game.

The marathon victory gave the D-Backs at least a series split, as they took Friday’s series opener with an 8-0 shutout win before San Diego won Saturday’s game 6-4.

Baseball oddsmakers opened Peavy and San Diego as large -180 favorites on the moneyline, but that number has settled down to -165 through -175 depending on where you wager. Arizona is listed as high as +159 on the dimeline at 5Dimes.com. The over/under total is listed at 7.5 at most offshore sportsbooks.

Peavy has pitched against Arizona twice already this season, and the D-Backs improved from game one to game two, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments Peavy makes to his game plan. On May 6th Peavy went seven innings and gave up two runs on four hits, but the next time through on May 27th the D-Backs got him for four runs and eight hits in a shorter 6.1-inning stint.

Ironically, Peavy lost the first game 3-1, but won the latter 8-5, so that’s baseball for you. The other thing to watch for is the fact Peavy left his last start against Philadelphia after just one inning (gave up four runs) due to a respiratory infection, something the has to make the Padres brass worried following yesterday’s bullpen- draining marathon.

Peavy will have the extra pressure of trying to salvage as least something for the Padres on this home stand, as they were swept by the Dodgers and have won only one game out of the seven-game stand so far.

Garland has been scuffling the last few weeks, going 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA and giving up 20 hits and 10 walks in just 14.2 innings. But most of that damage was two starts ago against the Braves (2.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R), as his last outing against the Dodgers was a strong one (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R).

Garland has also faced his new NL West rivals this season, but only once back on May 6th when he beat Peavy in the aforementioned 3-1 D- Back victory. The D-Backs would love to get an outing from Garland tonight like his first one, as he held the Padres scoreless with three hits in seven innings. He has done well against the Padres before that too, as he is 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA and a .164 batting average in three career starts.

All three games in this series at Petco have gone over the total, and four of the five at Petco so far in 2009 have cash in for the over. The only game that did not finish over … the 3-1 gem pitched by Garland and Peavy on May 6th.

Some other betting trends that add intrigue to the matchup: the Padres are 8-3 in Peavy’s last 11 home starts against the D-Backs; the under is 4-0 in Peavy’s last four games at Petco vs. Arizona; the D-Backs are 4-1 in Garland’s last five starts versus the NL West.

Neither team seems to like umpire Joe West’s strike zone either, as the D-Backs are 2-6 in their last eight with West behind the dish and San Diego is 0-5 with West calling balls and strikes.

Badger’s Pick: Peavy started last week with a respiratory infection, so the question surrounding his strength scares me off of him at the high juice. Garland hasn’t pitched well enough to earn my trust either. Seriously thin bullpens could make this ugly if things go bad early. Take the over of 7.5.

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