Arizona Diamondbacks (89-70) +105, o/u 8 ½ at Colorado Rockies (87-72), 8:05 pm Eastern Friday
by Zman of Predictem.com
It's down to the wire in the National League West and in the wild-card race, and the season-ending weekend series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will play a key part in determining a couple of playoff spots.
Arizona has lost three of its last four games, but still leads the NL West by a game over the second-place San Diego Padres and two games over streaking Colorado. The Rockies, who have won 11 straight games to jump back into the playoff fray, also sit just a game back of San Diego in the NL wild-card race, with three games to play.
The Diamondbacks are 39-39 on the road this season, while Colorado is 48-30 at Coors Field.
The Rockies lead the season series with the D-Backs this year eight games to seven, with the o/u going 7-7-1 in those games.
Friday night's series opener features a pretty darn good pitching match-up when Cy Young award winner Brandon Webb (17-10, 3.02) goes for Arizona against lefty Jeff Francis (17-8, 4.17) for Colorado.
Webb has had another solid season, but hasn't been too great lately, allowing nine ER and 24 baserunners over his last 19 1/3 IP. And Webb has had his problems against the Rockies this year, allowing 23 ER and 50 baserunners in 32 IP, encompassing five starts. The D-Backs are 21-12 in Webb's starts this year, but 2-3 when he goes against the Rockies. Also, the o/u is 11-18 in Webb's starts this season.
Francis has given up 11 ER and 29 baserunners over his last 18 IP. Colorado is 22-11 when Francis starts this season, the o/u 13-16.
Francis has started twice this season vs. Arizona, allowing just two ER and 16 baserunners over 13 IP. The Rockies won both those games, and both stayed under the totals.
The Diamondbacks own a .321 team OBP this season, which ranks 27th in the majors, and are averaging 4.4 runs per game.
Colorado ranks fourth in the league with its .353 team OBP and is averaging a healthy 5.2 RPG.
The Arizona bullpen has allowed eight ER and 27 baserunners over its last 18 innings of work.
The Rockies pen has given up four ER and 15 baserunners over its last 17 IP.
The o/u is 68-81 in D-Backs games this season, 80-72 in Colorado games, and 41-36 at Coors Field, where games are averaging 10.7 runs per, fourth-most in the league.
The Zman Pick: The Rockies are on fire but Brandon Webb is an extinguisher! Take the D-Backs as a small underdog here.
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