Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Preview and Pick

Los Angeles Dodgers (10-5) – Chad Billingsley -125, 8.5 O/U at Houston Astros (6-9) – Wandy Rodriguez +115, 8.5 O/U, Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas, 8:05 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The Houston Astros and left-hander Wandy Rodriguez will go for the improbable sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night in Minute Maid Park, but in order to take the finale of their three-game set they will have to beat one of the best young pitchers in the National League when the face current Dodgers ace Chad Billingsley.

The Dodgers came into the series in Houston riding an eight-game winning streak, but that has mattered very little as the Astros won the first two games of the series. After winning the opener 8-5 on Tuesday night, the Astros came from behind to take last night’s game, 6-5. Dodgers rookie reliever Ronald Belisario fell apart in the eighth inning, including a wild pitch as he was trying to intentionally walk pinch-hitter Geoff Blum, and the Astros won it on an RBI-single by catcher Ivan Rodriguez one hitter later.

Baseball oddsmakers currently list the Dodgers and Billingsley as -125 favorites on the moneyline, with the Astros and Rodriguez as +115 underdogs. The over/under total opened at 8.5 and is holding firm at most offshore sportsbooks on the Internet.

Billingsley has been the rock at the top of the Dodgers rotation so far this season, going 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his first three starts of the season. Last time out he held Colorado to three runs on four hits and three walks in six innings of work, which turned into a 9-5 victory for the Dodger blue. He’s also showing strong command, as he has just a 0.95 WHIP and is holding opponent’s to a .243 on-base percentage so far.

Rodriguez had a stellar outing in his last start, throwing seven innings of two-hit, scoreless baseball in a 7-0 victory over Cincinnati. For the season Rodriguez is 1-1 with a sterling 1.89 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and a .282 opponent’s on-base average.

But Rodriguez will have his hands full trying to cuff the Dodgers lineup that is currently tops in all of the Major Leagues in several offensive categories. The Dodgers are scoring 6.13 runs per game (3rd) and sport a league-high .296 batting average and a league-high . 860 OPS.

Houston meanwhile has had some issues on offense prior to busting out in the first two games of the series. As a whole the Astros are scoring just 3.53 runs per game (29th) and are hitting just .263 collectively as a team (18th). But most of the big-name players in the Houston lineup are having a red-hot series, including Carlos Lee (4-for-8, 3 R, 2 RBI), Ivan Rodriguez (3-for-7, 3 R, RBI), Miguel Tejada (3-for-9) and Lance Berkman (3-for-7, 2 R).

Both pitchers have had marginal success versus the other team in the past. Billingsley is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA, a .232 opponent’s batting average and .306 on-base percentage over four career starts against the Astros. Rodriguez meanwhile is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA, a .226 OBA and .311 on-base percentage in four career starts (five game) against the Dodgers.

It should be interesting to watch how well Rodriguez handles the Dodger lineup, because those career numbers above are a bit deceiving. Several players in the Dodgers everyday lineup have had strong success versus the lefty, led by catcher Russell Martin who is hitting .400 with a double, homerun, two runs batted in and three walks against Rodriguez. Rafael Furcal and Matt Kemp are also hitting .400 against him (small sample, 2-for-5), and Orlando Hudson has hit .333 with a triple off of Rodriguez in the past.

All three of Rodriguez’s starts for the Astros have ended under the total, but both games in the series so far have gone over the closing total.

The home field has been of little advantage when these two have gotten together in the past too, as the Astros swept the series in L.A. last season, while the Dodgers took three out of four in Houston last year.

But the way this series has gone you can throw all of those trends out the window as nobody would have predicted the Astros would have shut down the red-hot Dodgers thus far.

One other aspect to watch for in this game is the relative health/ strength of the bullpens. Both pens have been used a lot of late (Dodgers 22.2 IP last 3 games; Astros 32.1 IP last 3 games), and Astros closer Jose Valverde is still listed as day-to-day after taking a hard groundball off his leg in the first game of the series. If one or both starters get knocked out of the game early, this game could get ugly quickly.

Badger’s Pick: On its face this game looks like it should be a good pitchers duel, but everything about this series has been topsy-turvy and unusual. So I’m predicting a high-scoring slugfest, with the Dodgers avoiding the sweep in the process. Take the over of 8.5.

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