Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1) - Hiroki Kuroda +107 at San Diego Padres
(3-1) - Justin Germano -115, 8 O/U, Petco Park, 10 PM EST, Friday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda makes his Major League Baseball debut Friday when the Los Angeles Dodgers make the short trip south to start a three-game series verses the San Diego Padres at Petco Park.
The Dodgers won the bidding war for Kuroda in the off-season, signing the 33-year-old to a three-year, 35.3-million contract. Although he was not as decorated and as sought-after as fellow Japanese star Kosuke Fukudome (who signed with the Cubs), the right-handed Kuroda has a 103-89 record in his 11-year career, is a three-time All-Star and was named the league’s most valuable pitcher in 2005.
The Padres will trot right-hander Justin Germano to the mound to oppose Kuroda. Germano was lights out when he was first called up the big leagues last May, going 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his first five starts. Since then though Germano is 3-10 with a 5.28 ERA, including a less than stellar 0-4 record and 7.59 ERA in his five appearances versus the Dodgers.
Despite Germano’s struggles against the Dodger Blue, the Padres are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline. Kuroda will pitch as a +107 underdog in his debut, and the over/under total is 8 in spacious Petco Park.
The Padres come into the game sitting in first place in the NL West with a 3-1 record. They beat the Houston 3-2 on Thursday to take three-out-of-four versus the Astros to open the year. More importantly, Padres closer Trevor Hoffman knocked down the save in Thursday’s contest, less than 24 hours after giving up a 3-run homerun to Houston’s Lance Berkman in the 9th inning to blow the save and prevent the Padres from gaining the four-game sweep.
The Dodgers enter the weekend series with a 2-1 record after losing their first game of the season Thursday, a 2-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants that was interrupted by rain throwing both pitching staffs into turmoil. Kuroda will look to improve on his average spring, as he allowed 13 runs in his 23.2 innings in Florida. He did strike out 17, and showed excellent control by only walking four hitters.
Offensively neither team is really stroking the ball right now, but that may be more due to the parks they play in than their everyday lineups. San Diego is averaging 3.75 runs per game so far (15 runs in 4 games), while the Dodgers have relied on their pitching to carry them as they are averaging just 3 runs per game (9 runs in 3 games).
Dodger first baseman James Loney has been carrying LA’s offense on his back so far this season, going 5-for-9 out of the gate. Loney also has a strong history against the Padres in his short career (. 417, 2 HR, 11 RBI), especially versus Germano (4-for-8, HR, 2 2B).
The Padres on the other hand have enjoyed a two-headed offensive attack. Believe it or not, light-hitting Scott Hairston is filling in well for injured outfielder Jim Edmonds as he is off to a 6-for-15 start with 2 HR, a triple, 4 runs and 3 RBI. Third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is off to a decent start as well (5-for-17), including a 2- run jack in Thursday’s game. Like Loney, Kouzmanoff enjoys playing versus the Dodgers, as he has hit .317 with three homeruns and eight RBIs in his 17 games versus them last season.
The most obvious betting trend heading into Friday’s game is the under, as it has cashed in for all three of the Dodger’s games this season and in three of the four Padres games. With solid pitching and big ballparks, this is not much of a surprise really. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues tonight though, as Germano is the weakest pitcher in the Padre rotation and Kuroda may suffer a little MLB-debut jitters.
With both teams already involved in multiple one-run games, the run line bet has not offered much value. The Dodgers are 1-2 on the run line, while San Diego is 1-3 so far this season.
Badger’s Pick: I normally shy away from pitchers making major league debuts, but Kuroda is not a typical rookie. He’s a control, pitch-to- contact type pitcher that should thrive with the big outfield at Petco. Plus, Germano’s history versus the Dodgers makes the underdog Kuroda the best value in this game. Take the Dodgers +107 on the moneyline.
MLB Pick of the Day - We analyze all the games on each day's card and post the bet that we feel has the best chance of winning.
Expert MLB Baseball Picks - Get free daily winning predictions from professional sports handicappers!
2012 American League Predictions - Badger lists every AL team including their odds to win their division and the pennant, then gives his picks on who he thinks will cash.
World Series Predictions - Badger gives his favorite, middle of the road and longshot takes on who he thinks will prevail in the Fall Classic.
Dimeline Sportsbooks - If your not betting at a sportsbook that offers dimlines your wasting money!
Overnight Lines - Bet on tomorrows games tonight. Get better value with opening lines and odds before the sharps hit them and suck the value out.
5Dimes - Offers 10 cent lines and college baseball betting!
Alternative Runlines - Also +2.5 runlines which turns MLB into a point spread sport!
Rules - Innings requirements, listed pitchers, action, rainouts, suspended games. We cover it all!
What is Whip in Baseball? - Ever seen the world WHIP associated with baseball stats? It's one of the most important factors in handicapping. Increase your winning percentage today by reading this article!
How do you Calculate ERA? - We've got the answer to a stat question asked by many.
How to Calculate Batting Average - We all know what it is but but how do you calculate it? Click and learn.
What is... - Answers to MANY questions regarding America's pastime and from around the diamond.
Famous Baseball Quotes - From Yogi Berra to Casey Stengel, we list some of the greatest words ever spoken on the diamond.