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Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51) – Clayton Kershaw -110, 9.5 O/U at Colorado Rockies (71-54) – Jason Hammel +100, 9.5 O/U, Coors Field, 8:40 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Los Angeles Dodgers put their once untouchable National League West Division lead on the line tonight when they open a crucial three- game series with the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field.
Everyone was ready to give the Dodgers the NL West pennant before the All-Star break, but they’ve gone 18-18 since then and have watched their once double-digit lead in the standings drop to just three games. The Dodgers strong pitching has slipped of late, allowing the Dodgers to only play at the .500-level for the past few weeks including a 5-5 record in their last 10 games.
Already staked to a solid 4-game lead in the NL Wild Card standings, the Rockies have gone 21-13 since the break to reel in the Dodgers and now have their sights set on overtaking the team that everyone once considered a lock to win the division in a landslide. They are perhaps the hottest team in baseball right now, winning seven of their last eight games including last night’s 6-4 extra-inning thriller on a walk-off grand slam.
But in order to reel in the Dodgers something is going to have to change tonight for the Rockies, as they have lost 10 of the 12 meetings against the Dodgers already this season and won’t play them again until the final series of the season.
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The opener tonight will feature a couple of young hurlers, as struggling Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw goes against the Rockies young righty, Jason Hammel.
Oddsmakers opened the game with Kershaw and the Dodgers as -125 favorites on the moneyline, but most of the early money went on Colorado and that number has since dropped to just -110. If you were able to jump on the Rockies early you may have gotten a really nice number, but now the are listed as even money (+100) at most offshore sportsbooks.
The over/under total is listed at 9.5 at most books, with a few offshore operations listing it at 10. The runline shows the Dodgers at -1.5 at +145, with Colorado at +1.5 at -165.
Kershaw has fallen on hard times of late, with two losses and three no-decisions in his last five outings. During that span Kershaw’s ERA of 3.60 is nearly a full run higher than his season tally (2.96), and his WHIP is up to 1.47 from 1.29 as he has averaged nearly four walks per start.
Hammel on the other hand has pitched some quality outings for the Rockies of late, winning three of his last four while allowing just three runs or fewer in all four starts. The one problem for Hammel has been high pitch counts of late, so he has barely been able to stay in the game long enough to earn the victory, with only one of the past four starts lasting longer than six innings.
These same two pitchers matched up against each other last time these two played on July 1st, a game the Dodgers won 1-0. But Kershaw needed an early exit (5 IP, 1 H, 0 R) and left before the game was decided, whereas Hammel pitched well (8 IP, 5 H, 1 R) despite getting tagged with the loss. In fact, Kershaw has faced the Rockies three times already this season, getting rocked around a little in both games (10.2 IP, 12 H, 12 R) before he held them in check last time out.
The Dodgers offense may still be missing first baseman James Loney, who has been nursing the flu. The Rockies may still be without Carlos Gonzales (hand) and Dexter Fowler (knee), by Ryan Spilboroughs has filled in well in centerfield, hitting the walk-off grannie to win the game yesterday.
Colorado is playing well at Coors of late, winning eight of their last 11 home games. The over has been a strong play too, going 6-3-2 during the same 11-game stretch. However, the Dodgers swept them in Coors back in May (outscoring them 31-13) and took two-of-three in April. The over was 4-1-1 in those games earlier this season.
Badger’s Pick: The young pitchers in tonight’s game will have some jitters pitching in such a big game, and neither has been lasting very long anyway, so I’m looking at a big game full of offense. Take the over of 9.5.
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