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San Francisco Giants (42-34) – Matt Cain +126, 7.5 O/U at St. Louis Cardinals (41-38) – Adam Wainwright -136, 7.5 O/U, Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Mo., 8:15 PM EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Earlier in the year if you would have made the bold prediction that the San Francisco Giants would be leading the pack in the National League wild card standings on July 1st, you probably would have been asked to go pee in a cup. But thanks to a stellar pitching rotation that is 2nd in the Major Leagues with a 3.61 ERA, the Giants are right in the thick of things this late in the 2009 campaign.
One of the Giants best starters this season, right-hander Matt Cain, will go tonight in game three of a four-game set in Busch Stadium against the St. Louis Cardinals and their own right-hander, Adam Wainwright.
The Giants pitching has handed it to the Cards in the first two games of the series already. On Monday, Tim Lincecum held the Cards to two hits in an embarrassing 10-0 shutout victory in the series opener. Then last night the Cards were held in check by veteran lefty Randy Johnson, who allowed just three runs on seven hits in a 6-3 Giants victory in game two.
Meanwhile, the Giants offense has been teeing off on the Cardinals pitching, registering 12 hits in the opener and then tallying 13 hits off of Cards ace Chris Carpenter last night. The Giants have now won five of their last seven games and have done it by averaging over five runs a game (5.7), a full run and a half above their season long average of 4.09 per game.
Oddsmakers don’t seem to be impressed, as they have installed the Cardinals and Wainwright as rather large -136 favorites on the moneyline. Cain and the Giants are valuable +126 underdogs on the dimeline, while the over/under total is listed at 7.5 across the board at all of the online sportsbooks.
Cain was the Giants hottest starter up until his last start in Milwaukee, where he was finally knocked around a little giving up five runs on six hits and four walks in seven innings of work. Prior to that last start the Giants had won nine straight starts made by Cain as the righty was running his season totals to 9-1 with a 2.57 ERA.
Cain has faced the Cards three times in his career, compiling a 1-1 record with a surprisingly high 6.48 ERA, including the decision in a 4-2 victory against the Cards back on May 29th (6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R). But he hasn’t missed many bats in the process, as the Cards sport a really nice .294 batting average on balls hit in play (BAbip).
Two bats that Cain will have to work around tonight are those swung by Albert Pujols and Chris Duncan. Pujols hit homerun No. 29 and 30 last night, and is 4-for-8 with a homer and four RBIs against Cain in his career. Duncan is 3-for-7 lifetime against Cain and has also gone deep once.
Wainwright has been a bright spot in the Cards rotation this year, going 8-5 with a solid 3.51 ERA. The Cardinals are 10-6 in his 16 starts so far this season, and he’s coming off of a good start (7 IP, 7 H, 3 R) that wasn’t quite good enough in a 3-1 loss to the Minnesota Twins.
Wainwright has also already pitched against the Giants this season, going seven innings and allowing four runs on 10 hits in a 5-3 loss in San Francisco back on May 31st. That was his second start and fourth appearance for Wainwright against the Giants, who have 22 hits and 10 runs against him in just 17.2 innings of work. The Giants also sport a very nice .852 OPS versus Wainwright in his four appearances.
The Giants have won four of the five games versus the Cards this season, after taking four of the seven they played head-to-head last season.
All but one of the five games this season have gone over the total, with the lone exception being the start by Cain on May 29th. The over is also 4-1 in the last five games of the series played at Busch Stadium.
Badger’s Pick: Hard to not like Cain as a solid +126 underdog tonight against a struggling Cards team. Take San Francisco at +126.
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