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San Francisco Giants (8-12) – Barry Zito +210, 7.5 O/U at Arizona
Diamondbacks (14-5) – Brandon Webb -240, 7.5 O/U, Chase Field, 9:40
PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Arizona’s Brandon Webb will attempt to become baseball’s first 5-game winner tonight when the Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants in the conclusion of a quick two-game series at Chase Field Tuesday.
Webb has been absolutely perfect so far in 2008, going 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA thus far, including an eight-inning, three-hit, one-run outing last Wednesday versus these same Giants (a 4-1 win by the D- Backs).
The Giants will counter with their ace, if you can still call him that, when they trot Barry Zito out to the hill. Zito is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA this year, just one year away from breaking the bank with what now looks to be a terrible 18-million-a-year contract.
Sportsbooks opened the game with Webb and the Diamondbacks as a large -240 favorite on the moneyline, with the Giants listed at +210. The over/under total is 7.5.
Not only has Webb been outstanding so far this year, he is historically strong versus the NL West rival Giants. Webb is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last five starts versus them.
Webb will have the benefit of having Major League Baseball’s best offense supporting him. The D-backs have scored 120 runs so far this season, the most in all of MLB, and have scored more than four runs in all but one game all season. The D-back lineup also sports six different players with at least three homeruns and 10 RBIs, led by third baseman Mark Reynolds who has six homers and 19 RBIs thus far.
The Giants offense is the exact opposite, scoring just 63 runs so far to tie for the fewest runs scored in MLB. They haven’t helped Zito out at all either, as they have only scored three runs total in his four starts this season.
Zito is 2-4 with a 3.00 ERA against the D-backs in his career, including a nice outing versus Webb in the game last Wednesday. Zito went six innings last time out, but he did walk five and allow three earned runs.
With yesterday’s win the D-backs have now won three of the four meetings this season. Last year the D-backs won 10 of the 16 games between the two.
Chase Field has given the D-backs a big advantage in the series, as the Giants are just 2-10 in their last 12 games in Arizona. The retractable-roof stadium has also been kind to pitchers in the series, as the under has produced a 7-3-2 in the last 12 games as well.
That flies in the face of recent betting trends on these teams, as the Giants have gone over the total in seven of their last 10 games. The over has also cashed in for eight of the D-backs last 10 games on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks have riden their offense to an 11-6-1 over/ under record so far in 2008, while the Giants are an even 10-10.
Badger’s Pick: I think Webb will continue to dominate the Giants, but at a -245 price you need to have some very deep pockets to even consider putting money down on him. Instead I would place my wager on the under, hoping the D-back offense doesn’t go over 7.5 by themselves. Take the under of 7.5.
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