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How to Handicap Baseball Games - Part 1

How to Handicap Baseball Games
by Predictem.com Staff

Handicapping baseball is a bit different than handicapping other sports. The reason for this is that stats are more are involved in helping decide if a play has value or not (compared to other sports where you may handicap more on emotion/motivation etc.)

While one could make a case for any one of a zillion stats to be factored into capping MLB games, there are some more important than others. These include but are not limited to:

WHIP
ERA
Hitter vs. Pitcher Stats
Pitcher vs. Team
Grass vs. Turf
Night vs. Day
Outdoors vs. Indoors
Team Batting Average over last 5 games
Hot or Cold Team
Bullpens
Home vs. Road
Errors
Weather

We also like the fact that baseball offers a unique opportunity; The ability to hit less than 50% of your games and still turn a profit. We'll get into that later in this article.

We'll kick off our baseball capping tutorial with W.H.I.P. (For more info see: WHIP) Fantasy baseball players rejoice! All those years of being a stat rat will pay off handsomely as WHIP is a huge handicapping tool. For those of you not familiar with the term, it stands for walks + hits divided by innings pitched. By doing this, you will come out with a number that usually ranges in between 1.00 and 2.00.

With that being said, what is a good whip and what is a bad whip? The lower the better. Every blue moon or so you may see a pitcher (usually a closer) with a whip of less than 1.00. On the flip side, you won't see too many whip's close to 2.00 or above because these players don't last long in the big leagues.

A whip of 1.00 to 1.20 is very good. This would indicate the pitcher gives up around 1 hit/walk combined per inning pitched. These pitchers are likely to have a fair amount of wins, holds or saves as putting a lesser amount of men on base usually means lower ERA as well.

A whip of 1.25 to 1.35 is a bit more common and would denote a decent to middle of the road pitcher. These guys aren't bad, but their not the top of the line either.

A whip of 1.40 and above tells us we're looking at a pitcher that is either a gas can in that he lacks movement on his ball and is getting hit hard or lacks control and puts a bunch of guys on base via the walk. They can be great "go againsts" assuming the opposing pitcher is decent and your not paying too high of a price to bet against the high whip pitcher. It should also be noted that a game offering a match-up between 2 high whip pitchers can be a great shot at hitting an easy OVER bet.

How to Handicap a Baseball Game - Part 2

Free Picks

MLB Pick of the Day - We analyze all the games on each day's card and post the bet that we feel has the best chance of winning.

Expert MLB Baseball Picks - Get free daily winning predictions from professional sports handicappers!

Betonline: Best Baseball Bonuses on the Net!

Betting

Dimeline Sportsbooks - If your not betting at a sportsbook that offers dimlines your wasting money!

Overnight Lines - Bet on tomorrows games tonight. Get better value with opening lines and odds before the sharps hit them and suck the value out.

5Dimes - Offers 10 cent lines and college baseball betting!

World Series Odds - Bet your favorite team to win the Fall Classic!

Rules - Innings requirements, listed pitchers, action, rainouts, suspended games. We cover it all!

How to Bet Baseball

Moneylines - The most common of baseball bets. Beautiful too, as they create a situation where you can win less than 50% of your bets and profit by betting underdogs!

Totals - The easiest wager to beat in all of sports betting. There's a reason why sportsbooks have lower limits on over/under bets!

Runlines - A wager that creates a point spread where a team is either -1.5 runs or +1.5 runs. Underdog run lines are a great bet for game in which you predict a slim margin. Favorite moneylines pay well and are great bets for potential blowouts.

Alternative Runlines - Turn a favorite into a +2.5 underdog! Turn an underdog into a -2.5 run favorite. You better know what you're doing before betting these lines or your bankroll will resemble the action of a craps table.

Parlays - This type of bet is the reason many bookies drive cadillacs. Big risk; big payouts!

Prop Bets - Similar to totals, these are easy to beat if you do your homework. Avoid the ones that look easy though as they're surely sucker bets.

Futures - A great bet for recreational bettors who only want to spend a few bucks and have something to root for all season. There's a big payout if you're right!

Season Wins - Bet on teams to go over or under the posted total. Fading public opinion can make you money with this type of wager. Especially with public teams.

FAQ

What is Whip in Baseball? - Ever seen the world WHIP associated with baseball stats? It's one of the most important factors in handicapping. Increase your winning percentage today by reading this article!

How do you Calculate ERA? - We've got the answer to a stat question asked by many.

How to Calculate Batting Average - We all know what it is but but how do you calculate it? Click and learn.

What is... - Answers to MANY questions regarding America's pastime and from around the diamond.

FOR THE DIEHARD FAN

Famous Baseball Quotes - From Yogi Berra to Casey Stengel, we list some of the greatest words ever spoken on the diamond.