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Los Angeles Angels (41-32) – Sean O’Sullivan +121, 10.5 O/U at Texas Rangers (40-34) – Vicente Padilla -131, 10.5 O/U, Rangers Ballpark, Arlington, Texas, 8:05 PM EST, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Rangers Ballpark will be center stage tonight in the showdown for the American League West Division, as the second-place Texas Rangers throw veteran Vicente Padilla at the first-place Los Angeles Angels in game one of what has become a critical three-game series.
The Angels, who enter the series with a 1 ½-game lead in the AL West and a five-game winning streak, counter with rookie Sean O’Sullivan making just his third major-league start. The Angels completed a sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 12-8 victory Sunday, the third time they’ve scored 11 runs or more during the win streak.
There’s no doubt this series is critical for the Rangers. Back on May 17th the Rangers had just completed a three-game sweep of the Angels and held a 4 ½-game lead in the West. Since then the Rangers have lost 20 of their last 37 games and have watched the injury-riddled Angels pass them up in the standings.
The Rangers are also playing miserably right now, losing two in a row and seven of their last 10, but they may have finally hit bottom yesterday when they were held to one hit by journeyman Chad Gaudin in a 1-0 loss to San Diego. They’ve scored two or fewer runs in five of their last eight games, so the offense will need to back on track if they hope to keep up with the red-hot Angels.
Oddsmaker opened the game with Padilla and the Rangers as -135 favorites on the moneyline, and the number has settled into the -130 to -138 range at most sportsbooks. That means you can find the Angels listed as high as +121 (5Dimes.com) and +123 (SportsBetting.com) underdogs on the dimeline. The over/under total is listed at a high 10.5 across the board at most bookies.
Padilla (6-3, 4.48) is the listed favorite despite the Rangers recent offensive struggles because he is one of the hottest pitchers in the American League. He’s only lost one of his last eight starts (team is 6-2), and two of those six wins included five shutout innings versus the Dodgers and seven innings of six-hit, one-run baseball his last time out versus the D-Backs.
Padilla won game two of the Ranger’s three-game sweep back in May, allowing three runs on 10 hits over eight innings of a 5-3 victory.
O’Sullivan threw a gem in his debut June 16th against the San Francisco Giants, allowing just one run on five hits in seven innings for his first career win. In his last start he was roughed up a little more, giving up six hits (2 HR), three walks and three runs in five innings of what turned into a no-decision when the Rangers still won the game 4-3 over Colorado.
O’Sullivan might be able to take advantage of the free-swinging Rangers lineup. They had 10 strikeouts in yesterday’s one-hitter to move their Major League-best team strikeout total to 599 on the season.
Prior to dropping those three games in May the Angels have actually played well at Rangers Ballpark, winning seven of nine there last season. Overall the Angels won last year’s head-to-head meetings with the Rangers 11 games to six.
The over is 7-3-1 in Padilla’s last 11 starts versus the Angels, but it’s actually the under that has cashed in eight of his last 10 starts during his good run. Both of O’Sullivan’s starts have ended under, and the under was 2-1 in the previous series.
Badger’s Pick: Padilla is throwing good ball right now and O’Sullivan is a rookie, but I can’t pass up the red-hot Angels as underdogs. I’m riding the hot team as opposed to the struggling one tonight, so take the Angels at +121.
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