Florida Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Preview and Pick

Florida Marlins (23-15) – Mark Hendrickson +150, 8.5 O/U at Cincinnati Reds (16-23) – Edinson Volquez -160, 8.5 O/U, Great American Ball Park, 7:10 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com

If you would have told someone immediately after the Florida Marlins traded away third baseman Miguel Cabrera and pitcher Dontrelle Willis this off-season that they would be tied for the best record in the National League on May 13th, you probably would have been asked to take a drug test.

But that’s exactly where the Marlins and the lowest payroll in all of baseball are sitting right now, with a 23-15 mark and a two-and-a- half game lead in the NL East.

The Marlins put their NL best record on the line Tuesday night in game two of a three-game series against another big surprise this season, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez.

Volquez has won five of his seven starts so far in 2008 (5-1) and leads the NL in ERA with a 1.06 mark. His last time out he held the Cubs to four hits with 10 strikeouts in the Reds 9-0 victory Wednesday. Not only has Volquez not allowed more than one earned run in any of his seven starts so far, but he is also tied for second in MLB with 52 strikeouts.

Volquez will lock horn with the Marlins tall lefty Mark Hendrickson, who is also 5-1 this season with a 3.56 ERA. Hendrickson will be looking to win his sixth straight decision and the Marlins are 6-2 as a team in the games he has started so far in 2008.

The early line at most sportsbooks have the Reds and Volquez as a strong -160 chalk on the moneyline, with Florida listed as +150 underdogs. The over/under total in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park is listed at 8.5.

Volquez will have to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball right now. The Marlins had won seven straight before dropping the series opener last night, 8-7.

Their surge up the standings can be tied directly to the surge of second baseman Dan Uggla at the dish, as he has four homeruns and eight RBIs in his last three games. Uggla is hitting .461 (12-for-26) with 14 runs, 6 HRs and 12 RBIs during the win streak and including last night’s series opener.

The Reds have alternated wins and losses their last eight games, going 4-4 during the stretch, but they are still sitting in the cellar of the NL Central. The Reds will hope to build off of last night’s victory by getting Ken Griffey Jr. going at the plate. Griffey, who hasn’t homered since April 23rd, is 5-for-8 with a homerun versus Hendrickson in his career.

There are several betting trends to watch for in this game.

We already know the Reds have alternated wins and losses for eight straight, but the over is 6-2 in their last eight following a win as well. On the flip side, Florida is 6-2 in their last eight games following a loss.

The over has traditionally been a strong play with these two teams on the field, as it has cashed in seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings between the two.

And here’s a trend you can chalk up as a head-scratcher. The under is 7-3-2 in Cincinnati’s last 12 home games at Great American Ball Park, the park known for it’s short porches and homerun-friendly confines. Go figure that. The Park is so cozy that no lead is ever considered safe, including the Reds 8-4 lead that they almost blew last night.

Badger’s Pick: Volquez is a great story so far this season, one that I see continuing tonight. Plus, tonight’s home plate umpire Mike Dimuro is a pitcher-friendly ump that is ironically 8-0 for the home team in his eight games behind the dish. Take the Reds at the steep price of -160 if you have the bankroll to afford it.

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