New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Preview and Pick

New York Yankees (9-6) – Joba Chamberlain +108, 9.5 O/U at Boston Red Sox (9-6) – Jon Lester -118, 9.5 O/U, Fenway Park, Boston, Mass., 7:10 PM EST, Friday

By Badger of Predictem.com

It’s that time of the year again, time for our favorite four-letter sports channel and every other major media outlet coast-to-coast to cram the heated rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox down our throats.

This year’s first series between the two American League East powers opens Friday at Fenway Park with a showcase of young arms, as the Yankees will send Joba Chamberlain out to the hill to face Red Sox lefty Jon Lester.

Both teams come into Friday’s game riding high, as the Yankees enter with a modest three-game winning streak, while the Red Sox will be looking to add on to their seven-game winning streak.

The Red Sox are fresh off of a double-header sweep of the Minnesota Twins, scoring 17 runs in the two games played Wednesday after Tuesday’s game was rained out. Before that, the Sox swept the Baltimore Orioles in a four-game set at Fenway where they outscored the Birds 30-to-14.

The Yankees come in on the heels of a two-game series sweep of Oakland, including Wednesday’s 14-inning affair that ended when outfielder Melky Cabrera hit a walk-off two run shot, the first walk- off job in the Yankees new billion-dollar homerdome of a ballpark.

Oddsmakers opened the game with Boston and left-hander Lester as slim -118 favorites on the moneyline, with the Yankees in the rare role of underdogs at +108 on the dimeline. The over/under total opened at 9.5 runs and is holding firm, although a lot of sportsbooks have the total currently off the board.

The Yankees actually benefited from Monday’s rainout versus the A’s, as it allowed them to bump their rotation back in order to start Chamberlain on Friday. It was originally slated to be Chien-Ming Wang’s turn in the rotation, and unless you’ve been living under a rock, you can understand why the Yanks are breathing a huge sigh of relief that they don’t have to put Wang and his 34.50 ERA on the bump against the Sox.

Chamberlain has pitched better than Wang in his first two starts, but he hasn’t lit the world on fire either as he has yet to earn a decision. In 10.2 innings of work he has a 5.06 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP and a .367 opponent’s on-base percentage. In his last start, a full week ago last Friday, he lasted only 4.2 innings allowing six hits, five walks and five runs in what turned out to be a 6-5 victory over Cleveland.

Lester has been sort of Jekyll and Hyde this season as well, as he was tagged around his first two starts to the tune of 18 hits and 11 runs in his first 11 innings of the season, both losses. He rebounded back to his old form his last time out last Sunday, handcuffing the Orioles by allowing just four hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings of a 2-1 Red Sox victory. For the season he is now 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP and a .355 opponent’s on-base percentage.

Since both starters are relatively young, neither has a vast history in the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry either. Chamberlain has had two starts (six appearances) versus the Sox and is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP and a .294 OBP. Lester has had four starts versus the Yankees and is also 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.253 WHIP and a .324 OBP.

Both offenses have been picking up steam in the past week, as both are now tied for 7th in MLB scoring 5.6 runs per game. The Red Sox have actually averaged 8 runs per game during their winning streak, and the Yankees are ranked 3rd in homeruns hit with 25, 14 of which came on their six-game homestand in the new Yankee Stadium. Both teams are in the top-10 in team hitting as well, with the Sox (.275, 7th) just slightly ahead of the Yankees (.271, 10th) at this early point of the season.

One player who is sure to get his fair share of boos on Friday is Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira. Teixeira flirted with becoming a Red Sox in the offseason before taking more money to become a Yankee, and his .194 (12-for-63) lifetime average in Fenway Park will only make the home crowd more aggressive at giving him the old “Bronx” cheer.

This game, and the series for that matter, could come down to the strength of the bullpens, which gives the Red Sox a big advantage. Over the last three games the Yankees pen has been knocked around a little (26.1 IP, 1.67 WHIP, 8.20 ERA), while the Red Sox pen has been used a lot more (31.0 IP), but they’ve also been much more effective (1.19 WHIP, 2.03 ERA). Both teams had an off day on Thursday, so expect it to be Johnny Wholestaff all weekend long if the starters don’t go far into the game.

Keep an eye on the totals this weekend too, as the over has been a strong play historically. Seven of the Yankees last 10 games have gone over. Ten of the Red Sox last 11 games have gone over the total, and the over is a cash-machine-like 21-7 in the last 28 games between these two teams when they’ve played at Fenway.

Badger’s Pick: Not only do I expect Teixeira to be tight, but I picture Chamberlain being all amped up as well, and his command of the strike zone is questionable already. The Red Sox are hot at the plate, are playing in front of the home crowd, and are just -118 as favorites, so there’s not a whole lot of juice to eat to take them either. I’m riding the Red Sox here at -118.

Free Picks

Betting

FAQ

FOR THE DIEHARD FAN