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New York Yankees (15-16) – A.J. Burnett +120, 8.5 O/U at Toronto Blue Jays (22-12) – Roy Halladay -130, 8.5 O/U, Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario, 7:07 PM EST, Tuesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Right-hander A.J. Burnett makes his first return visit to the Rogers Centre in Toronto to face his old teammates tonight, but the Blue Jays will make it hard on him as they will throw ace Roy Halladay against him when the New York Yankees and Jays start a three-game series Tuesday.
Burnett opted out of his contract with the Blue Jays in the offseason and chased the millions ($82.5 to be exact) to become a Yankee, but things haven’t worked out as expected. Instead of the Yankees in first-place in the AL East, it’s actually the Blue Jays, who hold a 5.5-game lead over a Yankees team hoping to reach .500 with a win in Burnett’s return tonight.
Oddsmakers have Toronto and Halladay modestly favored at -130 on the moneyline tonight, with Burnett and the Yankees as rare +120 underdogs. The over/under total is listed at 8.5 on the board at most online sportsbooks.
Both teams had Monday off, but the Blue Jays are returning home after a successful 3-2 West Coat road trip which had them winning the last two games of their three-game set in Oakland over the weekend. They split a two-game set with the Los Angeles Angels the series before, and are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
The Yankees stopped a five-game losing streak on Friday with a 4-0 victory over Baltimore in a game everyone knows about because it was Alex Rodriguez’s first game off the DL this season. The Yanks went on to take two-of-three against the Orioles, so they’re hoping to continue the positive momentum tonight in the Rogers Centre where they went 4-5 last season.
The Yankees will not enjoy the sight of Halladay on the bump, as Halladay has owned the Pinstripes throughout his career. Halladay’s career numbers against the Yankees (15-5, 2.86 ERA) look nearly identical to his numbers this season (6-1, 3.29, 1.12 WHIP), which is one reason why the righty has won five straight decisions against them.
Not only is Halladay a horse, as he’s gone at least seven innings in all of his seven starts this season, but he is especially tough off the mound in the Rogers Centre including a 3-0 record with a 1.80 ERA and two complete games against the Yanks in his three home starts last season.
Burnett has had his share of problems as a Yankee so far, as his 5.26 ERA and rather high (for him) 1.33 WHIP indicates. He gave up a season-high 8 runs versus Boston two starts ago, but he rebounded to throw six innings of 6-hit, 3-run baseball against Tampa Bay last time out on Wednesday (no-decision in a 4-3 loss).
He’ll have to face a Blue Jay lineup that is still the tops in the Major League’s in many offensive categories. The Jays are 1st in runs per game (6.0) and batting average (.294), 2nd in OPS (.829) and 3rd in homeruns with 44 as a squad. The Jays did all of that damage without facing the rival Yankees and Red Sox though, which is why a lot of people will be watching this series to gauge if the Jays are for real or not.
But the Yankees are also top-10 across the board offensively, including 6th in runs scored (5.55), 4th in OPS (.821) and 2nd in homeruns with 48. The return of A-Rod to the lineup seems to have helped, as the Yankees scored 19 runs in the three-game set with the Orioles despite A-Rod going 1-for-10 in the series.
Even when Halladay doesn’t pitch well against the Yanks, the Blue Jays still win, as they are 20-7 in Halladay’s last 27 starts against the Pinstripes.
The under also has a strong betting trend to watch for, as it is 8-3 in the last 11 games head-to-head played in the Rogers Centre.
Badger’s Pick: I don’t think Burnett is going to choke in his return, but I think the Jays will knock him around a little more than the Yanks will hit Halladay. Plus, anytime you can get Halladay at reduced juice it’s worth a flyer in my opinion. Take Toronto at -130.
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