Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Preview and Pick

Baltimore Orioles (14-20) – Jeremy Guthrie +121, 8.5 O/U at Kansas City Royals (18-16) – Gil Meche -131, 8.5 O/U, Kaufman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo., 8:10 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The Kansas City Royals grip on the American League Central is starting to slip so returning back home to Kaufman Stadium couldn’t come at a better time, as they will hand the ball to right-hander Gil Meche when they welcome the Baltimore Orioles and their “ace” Jeremy Guthrie for the start of a four-game series Thursday night.

The Royals were riding high and sporting a six-game winning streak when they left town for a West Coast trip last week, but disaster struck while in California as they failed to win a single game. After getting swept by the Angels in a three-game set in Anaheim to start the trip, they Royals laid two more duds in Oakland including yesterday’s 7-2 loss.

The reason for the Royals five-game slide is offense, or lack thereof, as they only scored nine total runs and hit a collective . 201 as a team on the trip. But home cooking will hopefully turn things around tonight, as the Royals hit .329 and scored 42 runs in the six games at Kaufman before they left for Cali.

Baltimore meanwhile enters tonight’s game on the heels of yesterday’s 8-6 loss to Tampa Bay. The Orioles are playing decent baseball, going 5-5 over their last 10 games, but they may have been dealt a huge blow when outfielder Adam Jones left yesterday’s game with a bad hamstring.

Jones, who is the Orioles best hitter (team-leading .370 and 8 HR), was red-hot going 9-for-16 with three homeruns and seven runs batted in in his last four games. If he’s unable to go it will definitely hurt the Orioles chances in the series.

Oddsmakers have staked Meche and the Royals as -131 favorites in tonight’s opener, with the Orioles and Guthrie as +121 underdogs on the dimeline. The over/under total is listed at 8.5 at most offshore sportsbooks on the Web, but there are a few books listing the total at 9 so shop around if you want the hook.

It’s a little bit surprising to see Meche favored by such a wide margin, as his and Guthrie’s yearlong numbers are nearly identical. Both righties are 2-3 on the season, but Meche has a 4.43 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a .331 opponents’ on-base average. Guthrie is the same type of “pitch-to-contact” thrower, and his 4.97 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .337 OBP are just decimal points behind Meche in all three categories.

Neither pitcher has had much success lately either. The Orioles have failed to win any of Guthrie’s has earned a win since April 11th and in his last three starts he has allowed 19 hits, 4 walks and 10 runs over 19 innings. Meche has been worse, giving up 22 hits, 10 walks and 13 runs in just 15.1 innings, for a 7.63 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP.

History isn’t kind to Meche either, as he is 0-6 with a 3.65 ERA in eight starts against the Birds in his career. In his two starts against them last season he was tagged for 10 runs in just 11 innings of work.

Guthrie hasn’t faced the Royals since 2007, when he threw seven strong innings allowing just two runs and three hits in a 6-2 Oriole victory.

But Guthrie will hope to continue the Orioles winning ways at Kaufman Stadium. The Birds took three of four from the Royals on the road last year, and are 14-3 on the road in Kansas City in the last 17 games overall.

The over is 26-10 in the last 36 games played in Kansas City, including five of the last seven, but it is the under that is 4-1 in Meche’s last five starts against the Orioles (all losses).

Badger’s Pick: Like I mentioned, I’m not sure why Meche is such a heavy favorite in this game given the way he’s been pitching. Even with the way the Royals have been swinging, and with Jones a question mark for the Orioles, I still like the over of 8.5 tonight. Take the over of 8.5.

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