San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Preview and Pick

San Diego Padres (9-4) – Jake Peavy -125, 7.5 O/U at San Francisco Giants (4-8) – Matt Cain +115, 7.5 O/U, AT&T Park, San Francisco, Calif., 10:15 PM EST, Tuesday

by Badger of Predictem.com

If baseball fans not living in the Pacific time zone are able to stay up late enough tonight they should be treated to a great pitching matchup when the San Diego Padres send ace Jake Peavy to the mound versus their National League West rival San Francisco Giants and young righty Matt Cain.

The Padres are off to a surprising start in 2009, which includes a solid 4-2 East Coast road trip they just finished through New York and Philadelphia. After taking two-of-three from the Mets in the opening series in new Citi Field to start the trip, the Padres added a two-of-three series win over the Phillies to finish it when Monday’s finale against the reigning World Series champs was cancelled due to rain.

The Giants aren’t off to as great a start as the Padres, but they are sporting a little momentum of their own. Cain will be looking to repeat the performance of veteran righty Randy Johnson, who took a no- hitter through seven innings of Sunday’s 2-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The near no-no by Johnson gave the Giants their first series win (two of three) since they took two of three games in their opening series versus the Brewers.

The Giants will also be looking to get some revenge against the Padres, as a big part San Diego’s fast start to the season includes a three-game sweep of the Giants in Petco Park. The Giants were outscored by a 19-to-7 margin in that series, so there should be an extra level of motivation for the Giants to save some face this time around at home in AT&T Park.

Baseball oddsmakers opened the game with the Padres and Peavy as -120 favorites on the moneyline. Most of the online sportsbooks that offer dimelines have moved the number up to -125 in favor of the Padres, although you can still find a few -120s if you shop around. The Giants and Cain are +115 underdogs, and the over under total is currently listed at 7.5 at most books on the Internet.

Peavy is off to a solid start in 2009 with a 2-1 record and a 3.98 ERA to go along with a 1.28 WHIP and a .310 opponent’s on-base percentage. One of those victories came against these same Giants, as he went 8.1 innings allowing seven hits and three runs while notching 10 strikeouts in the Padres 6-3 win in game two of the aforementioned series at Petco.

Peavy has performed well versus the Giants in his career, and has done well at AT&T Park as well. He’s 12-8 in 24 career starts with a 3.30 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a .242 OBA. He’s won two straight at AT&T too, going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the open confines of the Giants home park, even though both of those games were in his Cy Young winning season of 2007 (he did not pitch there in 2008).

Cain is also off to a solid start this season, with a 1-0 record, a 2.08 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and a .315 opponent’s on-base percentage. Cain was outstanding his last time out, going 6 innings and allowing seven hits and two runs versus the Dodgers, but he did give up four walks and ended up with no-decision when the Dodgers came back to win the game 5-4.

If you were to look at Cain’s career numbers versus the Padres (3-5, 2.92 ERA, 1.118 WHIP, .197 OBA) you’d think he’s been knocked around a little. But after starting out 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his first five starts versus the Padres, he’s fallen on hard times of late, going 0-5 with a 3.59 ERA in his last 10 starts against them. But, as is the case every time Cain takes the hill, a lack of run support has hurt him more than anything else as the Giants have scored only 16 runs in those last 10 starts combined (1.6 per game).

Offensively the Padres seem to be hitting their stride right now. For the season they are averaging 4.92 runs per game (14th in MLB) and hitting .261 collectively as a team (17th), but those numbers were aided in part by a strong road trip to the East Coast. Shortstop David Eckstein (.429, 9-for-21) and outfielder Jody Gerut (.381, 8- for-21) both had excellent road trips, and first baseman Adrian Gonzales hit four of his team-leading five homeruns on the trip as well.

The Giants on the other hand are having trouble scoring runs, just as most baseball experts figured they would going into the season. The Giants are second-to-last in runs scored per game (3.08), OPS (.646) and in homeruns hit (six), and their .239 team batting average is ranked 25th in baseball.

The good news is that there are a few Giants with solid histories versus Peavy. Edgar Renteria (.368 in 19 AB) and Randy Winn (.263 in 38 AB) have longer histories, while youngsters Travis Ishikawa (3- for-6, HR), Pablo Sandoval (2-for-7, HR) and Fred Lewis (3-for-7, 2B, 3B) have had success with a small sample size.

The Giants have won four straight against the Padres at AT&T Park, and were 6-2 versus them at home in 2008. Six of those eight games came in under the total as well.

Those trends fly in the face of the recent betting trends however, because the over has cashed in at the window in the last eight head- to-head meetings (all at Petco). The Giants are 1-9 in Cain’s last 10 starts versus San Diego.

Badger’s Pick: I fully expect a pitchers duel tonight. Peavy will lock up a weak Giants lineup, and Cain should do the same to a Padres lineup that flew in from Philly overnight and could be suffering a little jetlag. Take the under of 7.5.

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