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San Diego Padres (5-5) – Jake Peavy -102, 7 O/U at Los Angeles
Dodgers (4-5) – Brad Penny -108, 7 O/U, Dodger Stadium, 10:40 PM
EST, Friday
by Badger of Predictem.com
It’s round two Friday night in the battle between Jake Peavy and Brad Penny, when the San Diego Padres open a three-game stint with the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
Peavy has been flat-out dominant over the Dodgers in his career (10-1, 2.21 ERA in 19 starts), and he continued his control when these two met last Saturday tossing a two-hit complete-game gem in a 4-1 San Diego victory.
Penny gets the unlucky draw of facing Peavy again, although it’s not like he’s chopped liver. Penny gave up all four runs in the first inning last time versus the Padres, settling down to go five- scoreless innings after the damage was done. It was just another frustrating outing for Penny versus the NL West rival Padres, as Penny is now 3-7 with a 5.63 ERA in 15 starts against them.
Ironically, most baseball bookies have opened the game with Penny and the Dodgers as slight -108 favorites on the moneyline, with Peavy and the Padres listed at -102.
Neither pitcher should expect much in the way of offensive support tonight, as both teams come into the series playing poorly. The Padres have lost two in a row versus San Francisco by only scoring two runs total in both games, and the Dodgers come back to their home ballpark after getting swept by Arizona.
Dodger first baseman James Loney is still the only Dodger regular hitting consistently. Loney hit a homerun on Wednesday, and has hit safely in all nine of the Dodger games this season. Andrew Jones, the Dodgers big off-season pickup, has yet to contribute with just a .129 average and one extra-base hit and one RBI.
Dodger hitters may also be dealing with a pissed-off Peavy, after some locker room “bulletin board” comments made after his last start against them. An Internet site posted photos of a smudge on Peavy’s pitching hand, which has lead to all sorts of speculation and rumors of him using a foreign substance. It’s become enough of a distraction that Peavy actually had to address the issue on the Padres Web site, saying it was a combination of resin and dirt and that he’d welcome an umpire check anytime.
The Padres lineup isn’t exactly lighting it up either. They are still hitting the ball (30 hits in three games vs. SF) all over the park, but with no true leadoff hitter (Brian Giles is there now) and a big lack of speed the Padres just aren’t getting those runners to the plate.
San Diego is 11-1 in Peavy’s last 12 starts versus the Dodgers, and Peavy threw seven scoreless in his opening outing this year, so to say the reigning NL Cy Young is in a groove is an under statement.
The other obvious betting trend is the under, for both teams, and not just because of the Peavy-Penny matchup on the mound. The Dodgers are 3-7 versus the total this season, and the under is also 9-3 in Penny’s last 12 starts. The Padres are 3-6 versus the total this year, and the under is 9-2-1 in Peavy’s last 12 starts.
Badger’s Pick: If you will give me Jake Peavy at just a -102 price, I’m taking it. His dominance over the Dodgers is another feather in the cap, so take the Padres tonight.
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