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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Pick

Philadelphia Phillies (16-12) vs. Miami Marlins (10-18)
Where: Marlins Park, Miami, Fla
When: Tuesday, May 1st, 2018, 7:10PM EST
TV: DirecTV Channel 654
by Kevin, Expert Baseball Prognosticator, Predictem.com

Phillies/Marlins Betting Odds: Phi (Eflin) -110/Mia (Garcia) -110 with a total of 8.5.

The Marlins, hot? Seriously? Yes, it's true, and the Phillies are not, making the Fish an excellent play today at the very nice price of -110. Believe it or not, Miami has won 5 of their last 6 games. Conversely, the Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 5.

What I like about the Marlins Today

Jarlin Garcia is one of the best pitchers in baseball that you've never heard about. All he's done this season is allow only 3 earned runs in 27 innings. His opponents have been no joke either, as he's gone up against the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. In three of his appearances he didn't give up a run. He only allowed one and two runs in his other two appearances.

Garcia, 25, started the season in the bullpen. The Fish gave him a spot start after having some excellent success in long relief. It'd be an understatement to say that he's grabbed the opportunity and ran with it.

In Garcia's first start vs. the Mets, he freakin' no-hit them for 6 innings before being pulled due to pitch count. In his next start vs. the Yankees (at Yankee Stadium I might add!) he allowed only one hit. In his last start, he gave up only 4 hits over 6 innings, while fanning 7. The guy is in the groove.

For the stat lovers out there, the young lefty has only allowed a meager .114 batting average to opposing hitters, a .220 on base percentage and a .227 slugging percentage.

What I don't like about the Phillies Today

It's never a good thing when you run hot hitter stats and two of your team's best over the past 7 days are pitchers. Unfortunately for the Phils, neither Drew Hutchison or Jake Arrieta will get any ab's today lol. Odubel Herrera has been on fire lately with 8 hits over his past 20 at bats but I expect him to be neutralized by the southpaw today as he literally gives up nothing to left handed sticks. Third baseman Maikel Franco has been hot as well with a .333 avg. and 2 dingers over his last 7, but is unlikely to have much success today as he's a rare reverse split guy who actually likes and prefers to hit off righties.

What I'm really stoked about today is that we get to go up against Zach Eflin. This kid is still young at age 24, so who knows what he may bring in the future, but results have shown a consistent pattern of getting absolutely pummeled. Last season, Eflin yielded 16 homers in 64 innings. To give you an example of how bad that was, an average pitcher gives up the same 16 homers in approximately 164 innings. In 2016, he allowed 12 round-trippers in 63 innings. His walk rates really haven't been that bad, he's just getting too much of the heart of the plate and leaving the ball up too high. While I believe Eflin has upside, I don't believe it's going to rear it's head anytime soon.

This will be Eflin's first big league start of the seaon. In AAA this year, he's gone 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA while striking out 15 over 20 innings. Nothing special.

Other Random Babble

- It's amazing how pubic perception of a team (Marlins being bad) can affect a price (odds). Power ratings for the game state Miami should be a -139 favorite. As noted above, Miami's price today is -110. Nice value!

- Eflin is a slow starter. Opponents are hitting well over .300 in his first 30 pitches. A Miami Marlins 5 innings bet is a solid consideration. (5 inning bets can be found at Bovada)

- Philadelphia Phillies hitters have fanned the second most in the NL (279).

- The Phillies have the second least amount of hits in the NL with 214. (Braves lead with 260)

- The Phillies have been favored in all 4 of their last 5 losses.

- The Marlins have been underdogs in their last 6 games, 5 of which were wins.

- The Phillies are only hitting .214 on the road this season

- Philly's had some sloppy glovework with 12 errors in 12 road games this season.

- The Marlins bullpen has been good at home this season with a 3.18 ERA/1.19 WHIP.

- Eflin got smoked in his last start at Miami going 5 innings, allowing 9 hits, 4 walks and 7 earned runs. Dude may not like to pitch in heat? Or he just sucks.

Kevin's Pick to Get the Money

Miami Marlins at -110.

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