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Philadelphia Phillies (4-4) – Kyle Kendrick (1-0, 7.20) +120 at New
York Mets (2-4) – Mike Pelfrey (ND) -135, 9.5 O/U, Shea Stadium, 7 PM
EST, Wednesday
by Badger of Predictem.com
On paper, tonight’s Phillies-Mets game looks like just another early April clash between the two heavyweights of the National League East. But it’s oh so much more than “just” another game.
There most obvious storyline developing for this game, one that is suddenly reaching the level of late-season importance for both teams, is how well the Mets react to losing their home opener yesterday, 5-2. When the Mets bullpen gave up all five runs in the late innings, the collapse mirrored the Mets collapse to the Phillies at the end of the 2007 season. The Mets have now lost nine straight to their rivals, and how they react in tonight’s game will be crucial.
This game will also be a statement game for both of its young starters, Phillies Kyle Kendrick and the Mets Mike Pelfrey. Both teams really need these guys to pitch well and stabilize their respective rotations, and to date neither of them has inspired much confidence from their teammates. Which one, if either, of these young right-handers steps up tonight could go a long way toward figuring out which team is at the top come October.
Baseball Bookies have opened the game with the Mets as -135 favorites on the moneyline, with the Phillies as +120 underdogs. The over/under total opened at 9.5.
On Tuesday, the Phillies tagged Mets lefty Scott Schoenweis with 3 runs in the seventh inning (only one earned), and his righty counterpart Aaron Heilman for two runs in the eighth to steal another victory from New York. Not only did it ruin a strong outing from starter Oliver Perez (5.2 IP, 3 H, 3BB), but it also added more layers onto the Mets-Phillies rivalry. Not only do the Mets have to stop their current three-game losing streak tonight, but they also have to win to shake the 300-lb. gorilla that is the Phillies off of their back in the process too.
The Kendrick-Pelfrey pitching matchup is huge as well.
Kendrick, who was great down the stretch last season (2-0, 3.00 in last three starts) for the Phillies, only pitched so-so in his opener last Friday (an 8-4 loss at Cincinnati). Kendrick allowed four runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in his five innings versus the Reds, but the outing was a slight improvement after having a brutal spring training (19 ER in 17.2 IP).
Pelfrey is making his first start of the season after having his own brutal spring (35 hits, 19 ER in 21 IP). Pelfrey was named the Mets 5th-starter until El Duque is ready, so not only will he be pitching to snap the Mets losing streak but also for his future MLB roster spot.
Ironically, these two have faced each other already back on July 1st of 2007. The Phillies won the game 5-3 (the first win in their current nine-game streak over the Mets), and Kendrick got the win with six innings of 6-hit, 2-run baseball. Pelfrey pitched okay in that game as well (5 IP, 4 H, 3 R), but he’ll have to do better tonight with a lot more pressure riding on the game.
The Phillies are not just 4-4 on the season, but they are also 4-4 on the runline bet and 4-4 on over/under bets this season. The Mets are 2-4 on the season and 2-4 on the runline, but their offense (and lack of pitching) has propelled them to a 4-2 O/U record so far.
Badger’s Pick: I’m looking for more struggles for young Kendrick and Pelfrey tonight, especially Pelfrey. The Mets will come out determined versus Kendrick, but the Phillies will tag Pelfrey around too. Take the over of 9.5.
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