Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Preview and Pick

Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8) – Paul Maholm +135, 8.5 O/U at Milwaukee Brewers (9-10) – Dave Bush -145, 8.5 O/U, Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wis., 8:05 PM EST, Tuesday

by Badger of Predictem.com

Milwaukee Brewers starter Dave Bush will be making his first start since flirting with a no-hitter in Philly last Thursday, and the Brewers will try and continue their run of good fortune over the Pittsburgh Pirates when Bush meets up with Pirates ace Paul Maholm on the bump Tuesday night in Miller Park.

An injury-depleted Pirates lineup hung around but the Brewers won last night’s series opener, 10-5, when the Pirates couldn’t find a relief pitcher who could get an out in the bottom half of the eighth inning. The Brewers scored five runs off of three different relievers with only two hits in the process (3 walks and an HBP), then welcomed new closer Trevor Hoffman of the disabled list for what turned into a meaningless 1-2-3 ninth in his first appearance as a Brewer.

The Brewers have literally owned the Pirates of late too, as last night’s win was the Brewers 13th-straight in the series between the two teams and makes them 23-6 in the last 29 meetings in their NL Central Division rivalry.

Maholm will be the next pitcher to try and break the Brewers stranglehold on the Pirates. Maholm has been stellar this season overall (3-0, 2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but he did give up four runs on eight hits in his last outing, by far his worst of the season so far.

Baseball oddsmakers have the Brewers and Bush listed as -145 favorites on the moneyline, with Maholm and the Pirates as a valuable +135 underdog. The over/under total is currently at 8.5 at most offshore sportsbooks on the Internet.

The Brewers offense has picked up and down the lineup, but it’s no secret the Brewers winning ways have been fueled by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. The Crew is scoring 5.83 runs per game during the past six games, up from their 4.63 average (19th), and they’ve finally started hitting some long balls as they are now 4th in the league with 26 as a team. Braun and Mike Cameron, who is 11-for-18 versus Maholm in his career, each have hit 5 homeruns on the season.

Pittsburgh’s offense is a shell of what it was just a week ago when they won eight of their last 10 games and entered the Brewers series as the hottest team in the NL. Catcher Ryan Doumit and shortstop Jack Wilson were officially put on the DL last Sunday and All-Star centerfielder Nate McClouth sat out of last night’s game with an oblique strain. Second baseman Freddy Sanchez (.359) and first baseman Adam LaRoche (1.016 OPS, 5 HR) are hot, but even they aren’t hot enough to pick up the loss of those three bats in the lineup.

Bush has struggled at times in Miller Park, and at times versus the Pirates, since he is 3-4 with a 4.67 ERA in 11 career appearances against them. He has pitched three straight quality starts (6 IP, less than 3 ER) against them in his last three times on the bump.

Maholm also has a mixed track record versus Milwaukee, going 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 10 starts, but he has only allowed two earned runs of less in three of his last four starts against the Brew Crew.

With two quality pitchers on the mound and a weakened Pirates lineup to boot, it’s actually the over that has the favorable betting trend numbers. The over is 7-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 road games and also 5-2 in Bush’s last seven starts against the Pirates. Overall the series has played over too, especially at Miller Park, where the over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 games.

Badger’s Pick: I really like Maholm here as a +135 underdog. That’s just a great value. But I also think the game will go over the total as well. Bush will get knocked around a little and the Brewers will get a few late runs off a weak and thin Pirate bullpen, so it goes over the 8.5 total too.

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