2008 Promotions and Demotions

Promotions and Demotions – The Latest Roster and Injury News for Bettors
by Badger of Predictem.com

Here is the latest roster news, notes and tidbits and injury updates from the final weekend of Spring Training 2008 for all of you baseball bettors.

And the 5th-Starter is? …

Most of the battles worth keeping an eye on in spring training are the ones for a spot in the starting rotation. Here’s some of the latest on those battles:

Milwaukee’s 5th starter last season, Claudio Vargas, was released to give rookie left-hander Manny Parra the job. Look for Vargas to land somewhere, as he is a good enough major league pitcher (11-6, 5.09 ERA) who will catch on somewhere. Meanwhile, keep an eye on Parra. He is the Brewers top prospect who threw a perfect game in Triple-A last year (was, so you might get excellent value on Parra in an underdog role.

Esteban Loaiza gets the 5th-starter nod over Chan Ho Park for the Los Angeles Dodgers to start the year. Loaiza got it more because of his guaranteed deal and not because he earned it by his spring training performance (15 hits in 15 IP, 2 HRs). Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda, who struggled in his first spring training (23 hits in 19.2 IP, 11 ER) is the Dodgers No. 4 starter, giving the Dodgers a very suspect back end of the rotation.

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The Cincinnati Reds decided to keep young righty Edinson Volquez on the big league club instead of sending him to Triple-A. Volquez, who came to the Reds in the off-season Josh Hamilton trade, looked like he was big-league ready this spring going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 26 Ks in 20 innings pitched. Volquez beat out big-time prospect Homer Bailey for the rotation spot.

New York Mets RHP Orlando Hernandez looks like he will start the season as the No. 5 guy … for now. El Duque was solid in his last spring start (5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K) and is touting a return to his old, high leg-kicking windup as the key to his pain-free approach.

The Houston Astros named Chris Sampson as their 5th starter this week, which is made more noteworthy because it sent Woody Williams into early retirement. Williams and his $6-million dollar salary were released by the Astros, and Williams told reporters he has no intention of playing anywhere else. Meanwhile, Sampson was tagged around (138 hits in 121.2 IP, 20 HRs) in his 19 starts last season, so the Astros pitching is already looking like a good one to bet against.

The Kansas City Royals named lefty John Bale the 5th starter instead of lefty Jorge De La Rosa, who was sent to Triple-A. Bale has only nine major league starts in his career, but his spring was better (14.2 IP, 13 H, 8 R, 11 K) than De La Rosa’s (12.1 IP, 18 H, 13 R, 8 BB, 10 K) so he gets the gig. The Royals have veteran Brett Tomko as their No. 4 starter ahead of Bale, and Tomko was simply atrocious this spring (18.2 IP, 31 H, 21 R, 13 K) making the Royals another attractive candidate for bettors to pick against early and often.

Here’s a 5th starter to keep an eye one, Pittsburgh’s Zach Duke. If Duke regains his 2005 form (8-2, 1.81 ERA, 79 H in 84.2 IP) instead of his 2006 form (10-15, 4.47, 255 H in 215.1 IP) the Pirates could give bettors some excellent value on days that Duke starts.

News Flash: Rolen and Edmonds Are Injured

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Yes, perpetually injured stars 3B Scott Rolen of Toronto and CF Jim Edmonds of San Diego are hurt again, and both will miss opening day this year.

Edmonds is expected back by Saturday (will miss five games) with a strained calf, but while he is out the Padres will rely on a combination of Jody Gerut, Paul McAnulty and Scott Hairston to man two spots of the Padres opening day outfield. Nothing against those guys mentioned above but, really? The Padres were already offensively challenged in the spacious Petco Park, but their opening week versus Houston and the Dodgers could set records for fewest runs scored. Look for a quick call to the minors for stud Chase Headley to be called up and be the starting LF by the all star break.

Rolen’s injury is much more serious from a fantasy owner’s perspective. Rolen broke the middle finger on his right throwing hand last Sunday doing fielding drills on the side at a back field. He had a screw put in it during surgery on Monday, so you know the doctor’s prognosis of him being out 4-to-6 weeks knocks him out for at least April and most likely May. Toronto is covered nicely in the short term with backup infielder Marco Scutaro ready to take his place.

Other Injuries To Watch

Yankee lefty Andy Pettitte is scheduled to pitch in a minor league game on Sunday, so the hopes of him making a start on the following Saturday versus Tampa Bay. That is, if Pettitte doesn’t have his old, cranky back acts up on him again. His arm won’t be stretched out much either, making his starts worth a look at betting the over since the Yankees bullpen will be handed the game early.

Milwaukee center fielder Mike Cameron isn’t injured, but his 25-day drug suspension is going to affect the Brewers. Left-handed hitting Tony Gwynn Jr. and right-handed hitting Gabe Kapler will likely do a straight platoon in his absence, but Gwynn could get more time following a hot spring (.382, .444 OBP). Either way, the Brewers lineup is much less imposing without Cameron in the No. 2 slot.

The Dodgers have so many injury problems at third base that they are now considering breaking camp with Blake DeWitt as the starter. DeWitt has never played above Double-A, but he is next in line now that Tony Abreu has joined fellow third base teammates Nomar Garciaparra and Andy LaRoche. I feel safe in saying that the Dodgers are going to struggle to score runs again this season and Joe Torre will wish he never left New York.

New York Mets outfielder Moises Alou had hernia surgery recently, and likely will miss most of April. Get used to this Mets fans, and hope first baseman Carlos Delgado doesn’t join him in the geriatric ward soon.

Even though the Los Angeles Angels rotation is in shambles, it still looks like they will be worth betting on this season. A few days after announcing that ace John Lackey was shelved for a few weeks due to shoulder soreness, the Angels also learned that Kelvim Escobar had a setback in his comeback from his sore shoulder. Escobar is out “indefinitely,” which is never a good prognosis. Now Jon Garland and Jered Weaver become the Angels top two starters, and most likely underdogs in every start. Both have been strong this spring, so look for some good value with them as dogs early on this season.

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