Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals Preview and Pick

Boston Red Sox (44-27) – John Smoltz -116, 9 O/U at Washington Nationals (20-49) – Jordan Zimmerman +106, 9 O/U, Nationals Park, Washington, DC, 7:05 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

One of the Boston Red Sox feature free agent acquisitions over the offseason, future Hall of Fame pitcher John Smoltz, makes his eagerly anticipated debut tonight in Nationals Park against the Washington Nationals and young right-hander Jordan Zimmerman in the finale of their interleague series.

Smoltz will try and push the Red Sox winning streak to five games and complete the three-game sweep of the Nationals after last night’s 6-4 victory by the Sox. David Ortiz hit a three-run jack as he continues to get hot at the plate and helped Boston improve their MLB-best record to 15-5 in the month of June.

The Nationals enter with the worst record in baseball and losers of three straight. They did have a modest four-game win streak going over the weekend, but the Sox have put those good vibes to bed. Zimmerman, the Nationals top prospect who was only 2-years-old when Smoltz made his major league debut, will be making just his 12th Major League start overall.

Baseball oddsmakers are taking a cautious approach to Smoltz’s debut tonight, opening the game with him and the Red Sox as modest -116 favorites on the moneyline. Washington is listed as slim +106 underdogs on the dimeline, and the over/under total is listed at 9 at most offshore sportsbooks on the Web.

Smoltz, who was shutdown last June 2nd and had shoulder surgery to fix the problem, signed with the Red Sox in the offseason when the Atlanta Braves decided not to resign the longtime ace and one-time closer. He made six starts in the minor leagues in preparation for tonight’s start, notching a 2.63 ERA in the process.

Smoltz, who has made seven starts against the Nationals in his career going 4-3 with a 1.77 ERA, will be on a strict pitch count tonight going just 85 to 90 pitches.

Zimmerman has pitched much better than his 2-3 record and 5.03 ERA would indicate, but he plays for the Nationals, so he hasn’t had much help. His last start he went 5.2 innings and only allowed five hits and one run, but he left with no-decision as the Nationals went on to loss 2-1 to Toronto. The start before he only allowed four hits and one run in five innings, only to leave and get no-decision in what turned into an 8-3 loss to Tampa Bay.

Zimmerman has yet to face Boston in his career, but hopefully he can turn things around for the Nationals as the Red Sox own a 10-1 record against them in interleague play since 2000. The Nationals are 4-7 in his 11 starts this season.

Some betting trends to keep an eye on tonight include the over, which is 4-0 in the last four games played and 6-0 in the last six played at Nationals Park.

The other trend involves home plate umpire Jeff Nelson. The Nationals must be his favorite team, as they are 7-0 in their last seven games with him calling balls and strikes. He’s also a great ump for pitchers, as the under is 4-1 in his last five games overall and 9-1-1 in his last 11 games involving the Red Sox.

Badger’s Pick: I expect Smoltz to get knocked around a little tonight, but in the end I think he’s crafty enough to get the win if he can make it through the fifth. Zimmerman is a tough-luck loser again. Take Boston, the WAY better team, at the low, low price of -116 tonight.

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