Boston Red Sox (14-7) – Josh Beckett -108, 9 O/U at Tampa Bay Rays (8-14) – Matt Garza, -102, 9 O/U, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida, 7:08 PM EST, Thursday
by Badger of Predictem.com
Another rematch of last year’s American League Championship Series begins a four-game series tonight from Tropicana Field when the Boston Red Sox send ace Josh Beckett out to face Tampa Bay Rays righty Matt Garza, but oh what a difference a year makes this time around.
Last year at this time the Rays were off to the best start in franchise history, but this year the Rays really need Garza to pitch like a stopper because the Rays have lost four of their last five and seven of their last 10 games. With just an 8-14 start and an already 6.5-game deficit in the AL East, the Rays can’t afford to fall any further behind the Red Sox in the standings.
The Red Sox meanwhile just keep on keeping on. After having their 11- game winning streak snapped in a 9-8 loss at Cleveland on Tuesday, the Sox won the series yesterday and started a new streak on get-away day with a 6-5 decision in extra innings. Just to show you how good it’s going for the Red Sox right now, little-used outfielder Jonathan Van Every was the hero yesterday with a solo homerun in the 10th to give Boston the lead. Who you ask? Yeah, Van Every, the Red Sox are hotter than hot right now.
Baseball oddsmakers have been waiting for the Rays to get hot and play like the team they were last season, and it appears they think it will happen this weekend against Boston. How else can you explain that the Red Sox and Beckett are just slim -108 favorites on the moneyline? Tampa and Garza are -102 on the dimeline, and can even be found at even money at a few Sportsbooks.
The over/under total is listed at 9 everywhere, so shop around for your best odds or reduced juice.
Maybe oddsmakers are weighing on the fact that the red-hot Red Sox didn’t play well at Tropicana earlier this month, when they lost two of three games to the Rays in opening series of the season. But one could argue that was the last time the Rays and Garza have played up to their potential.
Garza won game three of that opening three-game set, pitching seven innings allowing just one run on four hits and three walks. But since that game Garza is 0-2 (the team is 0-3) with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. His last two outings were his worst, allowing 11 earned runs in 11.1 innings.
Oddsmakers must also be considering Garza’s history versus the Sox, as he is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA and a .227 OBA is seven career starts.
Boston’s offense is so hot right now, it doesn’t really matter who’s pitching for them, but they hand the ball to Beckett tonight. Beckett was involved in that 16-11 slugfest with the Yankees last Saturday, so his numbers are skewed (1-1, 7.94 ERA in last 3 starts), but the Red Sox have won three of his four starts this season.
Beckett was super on opening day of the previous series this year, pitching seven innings while giving up just two hits and one run with 10 strikeouts. For his career, Becket is 6-3 (11 starts) with a 2.93 ERA and a .223 OBA.
Oddsmakers must also be banking on the Red Sox poor history at Tropicana Field, as they have won just three games in the last 14 games played in the series at the Tropicana and only six games of their last 19 there.
There are a few interesting betting trends to watch for tonight as well, as the Rays are 5-0 in Garza’s last five starts versus Boston and 4-0 in the four games he pitched against them at home. The under could also be a strong play, as it is 5-1 in Beckett’s last six starts versus Tampa Bay and 4-1 in the last five games overall in the series.
Badger’s Pick: The baseball Gods seem to be pulling for Boston right now, as they are getting big games from all 25 players right now. At the bargain-low price of -108, if you’re going to give me Beckett and the red-hot Sox lineup right now (with or without Youkilis), I’m taking you up on it. Take Boston at -108.
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