Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Preview and Pick

Cincinnati Reds (28-24) – Aaron Harang +169, 7 O/U at St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) – Chris Carpenter -179, 7 O/U, Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Mo., 8:15 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The Cincinnati Reds hope to slip out of Busch Stadium Thursday night with a series victory over their National League Central rival St. Louis Cardinals in the finale of a four-game set, but standing in their way is the Cards ace Chris Carpenter.

The Reds will counter with right-hander Aaron Harang as they look to take three out of four from the Cards and move one game closer to them in the NL Central standings.

The Reds took game three of the series last night with a 9-3 victory when righty Johnny Cueto allowed only one run in the first six innings of the game. The Cards on the other hand were forced to play “Johnny Wholestaff” with their bullpen last night when starter Kyle Lohse only pitched two innings. Blaine Boyer ate up five innings in relief, but the Cards pen will need another gem out of Carpenter tonight.

Oddsmakers opened Carpenter and St. Louis as large -180 favorites on the moneyline and its held firm, dropping just a few points if at all to St. Louis -179. The Reds with Harang are listed as +169 underdogs, with the over/under total listed at 7 or 7.5 runs depending on which offshore sportsbook you wager with these days.

Carpenter, with the exception of the few weeks he spent on the DL with a pulled oblique, has been true to his old Cy Young form. For the season he has been dealing (3-0, 0.62 ERA, 0.72 WHIP), but he hasn’t always gotten run support which is why the Cards are only 3-2 in his five starts in 2009.

Two outing ago he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Milwaukee, only to lose the game 1-0 when Yovani Gallardo outdueled him. Last time out he finally got some run support, as the Cards scored six in a 6-2 victory over Barry Zito and the Giants. In that game Carpenter had his “worst” outing of the season, giving up two run on six hits and a walk in six innings.

For his career, Carpenter is 3-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine starts against the Reds. Those numbers certainly don’t look impressive, but when you look at the fact the Reds only hit .203 off of him with a measly .242 on-base percentage, Carpenter’s dominance gains perspective.

Harang has been mediocre overall this season, as his 5-5 record with a 4.19 ERA indicates. On the surface it looks like he’s done well of late, seeing that he’s won two of his last three starts, but his WHIP (1.78 – 26 H, 3 BB, 16.1 IP) and ERA (6.61) tell it he’s been lucky more than good. His last outing he was shelled for 12 hits and eight runs in just 4.1 innings of work against the Brewers.

Harang is 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA in his 19 career starts versus the rival Cardinals. The Cards do all right against Harang as they hit . 267 as a team in those starts and have a .319 on-base percentage as well.

One factor to keep on eye on tonight is how far each starter can go. Both bullpens have been taxed throughout this series (Reds Volquez went one inning Tuesday, Lohse just two last night), so an inning- eating performance would be clutch for both teams. Carpenter has gone at least five in all but his injury game this season, while Harang has lasted only 5 and 4.1 his last two outings.

The over has been the best bet in this head-to-head series of late, cashing in at a clip of 8-2 the last 10 meetings, but its actually the under that is 8-1 in the last nine games played at Busch Stadium.

The Cards also seem to play well on get-away-day Thursday’s, as they are 10-1 in their last 11 Thursday games.

Badger’s Pick: I like Carpenter here, but at -179 it is a lot of wood to lay to win. The Cards pound Harang again, and both bullpens give up just a few late runs to push this game over 7 or 7.5. Find a sportsbook with the total listed at 7 and take the over.

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