Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins Preview and Pick

Cincinnati Reds (30-33) – Edinson Volquez -140, 9 O/U at Florida Marlins (33-28) – Mark Hendrickson +120, 9 O/U, Dolphin Stadium, 7:05 PM EST, Monday
by Badger of Predictem.com

The Cincinnati Reds have to like their chances in the finale of their four-game set with the Florida Marlins Monday night, as they send their new ace of the staff Edinson Volquez to the mound.

Volquez will try and help the Reds salvage a split in the series, as the Marlins won back-to-back games over the weekend (8-7 Sat., 9-2 Sun.) after the Reds won the opener 11-3.

Florida will counter with tall and lanky lefty Mark Hendrickson, who has been knocked around hard to the tune of an 11.66 ERA and 25 hits in 14.2 innings in his last three starts. Despite Hendrickson’s rocky stretch, the Marlins have still won two of those three games and are 9-4 when the lefty toes the rubber for the Marlins.

Offshore sportsbooks opened the game with Volquez and the Reds as -140 favorites on the moneyline, with Florida listed as +120 underdogs. The over/under total opened at 9.

Volquez has been simply filthy all season, leading the MLB in ERA (1.32), strikeouts (91) and opposing batting average (.188). Plus, he has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his 12 starts, which is the main reason the Reds are 10-2 in games with Volquez (8-2) on the bump.

Hendrickson has had a hard time versus the Reds in his career, with an 0-2 record with an 8.49 ERA in five career starts. One of those starts was May 13th against Volquez, when he was touched for four runs in five innings and ended with the loss when Volquez and the Reds won the game, 5-3.

Volquez allowed one run on seven hits in six innings of that May 13th game, mainly because he was able to keep Marlin shortstop Hanley Ramirez in check. Ramirez was 0-for-3 in the first game, but is currently one of the hottest Marlins in the lineup (8-for-21 with 5 HR and 8 RBI).

Cincinnati will be looking for Volquez to snap a two-game losing streak, since the Reds suffered a walk-off loss on Saturday when closer Francisco Cordero blew his third save of the season. The offense went AWOL on Sunday, as rookie callup Jay Bruce (0-for-3), clean-up hitter Brandon Phillips (0-for-4) and big lefty Adam Dunn (0- for-2) all went hitless in the lopsided loss.

There are some interesting betting trends to note.

Florida has gone over the total in nine of their last 11 games as an underdog on Monday. As a whole the Marlin offense has been a solid over bet, going 21-6-3 in their last 30 games.

Cincinnati plays well as favorites, as they are 11-3 in their last 14 games as the chalk. They currently lead the season series with the Marlins 4 games to 2, and are 7-2 versus the Marlins head-to-head in the last nine in the series.

The Reds have long been losers on the road, as their 17-35 record in their last 52 away from Ohio indicates. They’ve also had trouble in Miami, going 3-9 at Dolphin Stadium since 2005. They are 3-8 in their last 11 Monday games too.

Badger’s Pick: With trends pointing in every direction, sometimes you just gotta go with your gut. My gut says that Volquez is the real deal, so with a low -135 to -140 price tag I’m riding that horse one more time. Take the Reds.

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