Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Preview and Pick

Detroit Tigers (17-14) – Dontrelle Willis +140, 10 O/U at Minnesota Twins (16-17) – Glen Perkins -150, 10 O/U, Metrodome, Minneapolis, Minn., 8:10 PM EST, Wednesday

by Badger of Predictem.com

Once considered one of the most promising young pitchers in all of the Major League’s, Detroit left-hander Dontrelle Willis will attempt to take a huge step back into the bigs tonight when the Tigers face Minnesota Twins lefty Glen Perkins in game two of a three-game set in the Metrodome.

The Twins climbed one game closer to the first-place Tigers in the American League Central with last night’s 6-2 victory in game one of the series, snapping the Tigers modest three-game winning streak in the process. Catcher Joe Mauer continued his hot hitting since missing the first 22 games of the season with a bad back, hitting a homerun and nearly adding a second, and Joe Crede also returned to action and hit a homerun to back pitcher Kevin Slowey who went six strong in the win.

Not only will Willis will be making his season debut, but he’ll also be trying to put the demons of 2008 behind him as well. The one-time rookie of the year who couldn’t throw strikes last year was demoted after his last start in September, then diagnosed with anxiety disorder in Spring Training. He’ll try and take one step closer toward being reliable tonight and keep the Twins, winners of three of their last four games, in check in the process.

Baseball oddsmakers must be a little leery of Willis and his control issues, as the Twins and Perkins are listed as rather large -150 favorites on the moneyline tonight. Willis and the Tigers are +140 on the dimeline, with the over/under total listed at 10 across the board at all of the offshore sportsbooks on the Internet.

The large -150 odds on Minnesota is a little strange, especially since Perkins has had his issues of late and is not a prototypical high-juice pitcher. Although his season-long numbers are good (1-2, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .287 OBP), Perkins has really struggled in his last three outings allowing 22 hits and 13 runs in just 17 innings of work (6.88 ERA) and all three ended up as losses for the Twins.

His last time out on Thursday Perkins lasted six innings and allowed four runs on four hits (2 were HRs), but he left with no-decision in what became a 5-4 loss to Baltimore. Perkins has pitched well against Detroit in his career however, as he is 2-1 with a low 2.73 ERA in four starts and a handful of relief appearances. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera is one player the lefty will have to watch out for, as he is 4-for-10 lifetime against Perkins.

Perkins will rely on Mauer to continue his hot start at the plate, as the All-Star is 18-for-36 on the season (.500) with three of his four homeruns coming in his last four games.

But there’s little to no history of the Twins players hitting off of Willis, which could help Willis in the early going. After spending most of his years in the National League, Willis made just one relief appearance for one inning against the Twins last season giving up one run on one hit and two walks.

Willis made four starts in the Tigers minor league system before getting his call up tonight, going 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA. More importantly, he finished those four starts with a 16:9 strikeout to walk ratio, which he will have to reign in a little if he hopes to stay in the big leagues for the long haul.

The Tigers have struggled versus their division rival Twins in recent years, winning just six of their last 19 head-to-head meeting with the Twins. The Tigers were 3-6 in the Metrodome last season, where the Twins have played well so far in 2009 with a 12-9 home record.

Last season these two teams went over the total in 11 of the 17 games head-to-head, including seven of the nine played in the Metrodome. But in three games this season they have yet to score that much, as their games have ended with two unders and a push.

Badger’s Pick: Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see Willis regain his old form. But a 16:9 K-BB ratio in the minors doesn’t exactly instill me with loads of confidence. The Twins know this too, so expect Willis to run his pitch count up fast and be gone before he reaches the 5th inning. Perkins isn’t pitching well enough to lay -150 either, so I’m taking the over of 10 in this game tonight.

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