New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Preview and Pick

New York Yankees (34-25) – CC Sabathia -150, 9.5 O/U at Boston Red Sox (35-24) – Brad Penny +140, 9.5 O/U, Fenway Park, Boston, Mass., 7:10 PM EST, Thursday

by Badger of Predictem.com

The New York Yankees gave their new ace pitcher CC Sabathia a boatload of millions in the offseason as a free agent to deliver a critical victory. Tonight in Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox will be Sabathia’s turn to hold up his end of the bargain as he tries to stop the Yankees jinx against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox made it seven straight victories over the Yankees this season, and eight overall dating back to 2008, with a gift-wrapped 6-5 victory over the Yanks last night. Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang folded under the pressure of the Yanks-Sox rivalry and only went 2.2 innings allowing four runs before manager Joe Girardi gave him the quick hook. The early deficit was too much for the Yankees to overcome against the Boston bullpen, but 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position certainly didn’t help.

Now the Yankees turn to Sabathia, making his first start against the Sox as a Yankee, to try and stop the Red Sox train as they have now won seven of their last nine games overall and have overtaken the Yankees to claim first-place of the AL East.

Oddsmaker has listed the game with Sabathia and the Yankees as a rather large -150 favorite on the moneyline, given the circumstances, thus making the Red Sox a juicy +140 underdog on the dimeline.

The over/under total opened at 10, but has dropped the hook to 9.5 at most of the offshore sportsbooks taking wagers on the Internet.

Sabathia has been worth the money lately, as he has gone 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA over his last six starts and sports a 1.88 ERA in his road starts this season. More importantly, he’s averaged at least eight innings per start during those six starts, which should help preserve a Yankees bullpen that has been forced to eat over 12 innings of work in this series since starters A.J. Burnett and Wang only recorded 8 outs each.

But Sabathia has had his troubles against the Red Sox in the past. He’s 2-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in seven starts against the Sox in his career, but he is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA at Fenway. The last time Sabathia was on the Fenway mound was in the 2007 ALCS as an Indian, when the Red Sox bombarded him for eight runs.

Like Sabathia, Penny will be making his first Yanks-Sox rivalry start as well.

Penny has a nice 5-2 record with a 5.85 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this season, but don’t be fooled by those numbers. He has not pitched very well at all since coming back from elbow issues. The Sox are just 6-5 in his 11 starts, and they’ve been backing him with 7.2 runs of support this season to help make up for his mistakes and struggles.

Penny has had one start pervious against the Yankees in his career, winning the game pitching five innings allowing three runs on six hits and three walks. Again, not very impressive, but a win.

The Yankee lineup should be able to get some good swings on Penny. After being held to a season-low of two hits by Josh Beckett in the opener, they rapped out 11 last night.

Boston will try and keep the momentum rolling by trying to get to Sabathia early. Look for Kevin Youkilis to be the spark, as he is 3- for-7 (.429) in his career versus the big lefty.

The best betting trend worth throwing a flyer at tonight could be the under. The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven games at Fenway in this head-to-head series. The under is also 4-0 in home plate umpire James Hoye’s last four games for Boston, and it’s 5-2 in his last seven games calling balls and strikes for the Yankees.

Badger’s Pick: I just can’t get away from the great value of the Red Sox as +140 underdogs. That just doesn’t come around too often. Boston is playing great with the home crowd and momentum on their side. I’m not risking much, but I’m taking the Red Sox at +140.

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