Arizona Diamondbacks (74-60) +150, o/u 7 ½ at San Diego Padres (73-59), 10 pm Eastern Thursday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The San Diego Padres shoot for a sweep of a key four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night at Petco Park.
San Diego entered this series three games behind first-place Arizona in the National League's West division. But the Padres have taken the first three games of this series by scores of 3-1, 6-4 and, Wednesday night, 3-1 again, to pull into a tie for the division lead.
The Diamondbacks, losers of seven of their last 10 games, are 34-34 on the road this season, while San Diego, winners of seven of its last eight, are 38-29 at home.
These division rivals have split 14 games so far this season, with the o/u going 7-5-2.
Arizona will send Doug Davis out to spoil the sweep Thursday night against big Chris Young for San Diego. Davis (11-11, 4.09) bounced back after a lousy outing 10 days ago vs. Milwaukee when he limited the Cubs to one ER in seven innings of a 3-1 Arizona win last Saturday. The D-Backs are 16-11 when Davis starts this year, the o/u 8-18.
Davis has started three games vs. the Padres over the last couple of seasons, two as a Brewer last year. He's allowed nine ER and 26 baserunners in 20 IP in those games, and his teams won all three.
Young (9-4, 2.12) missed his last start because of lower back pain. He would lead the league in ERA, but he's just short of the number of IP needed to qualify. And he hasn't been that great lately, allowing eight ER and 20 baserunners in his last 17 IP, with San Diego losing his last three starts. But on the season, the Padres are 14-9 when Young hits the hill, the o/u 8-14.
Young has started four times vs. Arizona this year and last, giving up seven ER and 15 baserunners in 19 1/3 IP. The Pads are 2-2 in those games.
The Diamondbacks rank dead last in the league with their .316 team OBP, and are averaging 4.2 runs per game. Arizona has scored a total of 25 runs over its last 10 games.
San Diego ain't been much better with the bats, with their .319 team OBP, third-worst in the majors, and their 4.4 RPG.
The D-Backs bullpen has given up three ER and 13 baserunners over its last 11 2/3 IP.
The Padres pen has allowed five ER and 14 baserunners in its last 15 1/3 innings of work.
The o/u is 54-70 in Arizona games this year, 61-66 in San Diego games, and 28-36 at Petco Park.
The Predictem Pick: Passing.
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