AAA Texas 500 Pick to Win

Race: AAA Texas 500
Date: Sunday November 6, 2011
Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Time: 3pm EST
Channel: ESPN
by Virginia Vroom, Auto Racing Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Martinsville seemed to be just what Tony Stewart needed. He came home 1st on Sunday with his 3rd win of the season and the Chase. He moved up 2 positions into 2nd place, only 8 points behind points leader Carl Edwards. Kevin Harvick also had a good day at Martinsville, moving up 2 positions into 3rd place. The losers at Martinsville were Brad Keselowski, who happened to be doing a great job until a late wreck took him out of a good position. Matt Kenseth fell 3 positions after battling hard with many on the track. The ones expected to do well didn't do poorly, yet they had a hard time being that the points leaders all had a relatively good day. Jeff Gordon is still sitting in 10th place, 76 points behind Edwards, which is essentially going to be an impossible feat to pull off this late in the game.

That being said, Gordon generally has strong runs at Texas, but not nearly as good as counterpart Jimmie Johnson. Johnson could really use another strong run, coming up short to Stewart in a last ditch short run to the checkers at Martinsville. Johnson is 43 points behind Edwards, so he still has a good shot at coming away with another championship, but he's going to have to fight for wins and fight for anything he can get. Risk is going to be his best friend this weekend and the closing weeks to come.

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When we take a look at Texas Motor Speedway, we are talking about a 1.5 mile quad-oval. This track has 24 degree banking in the turns and 5 degree banking in the straights. The frontstretch is pretty long at 2250 feet. The backstretch is 1330 feet. This gives the guys plenty of room to gain some speed coming into turn 1 and coming out of turn 4. Tires always seem to be a big contender here. Track position means a lot, but pit strategy and 4 tire stops are key to get ahead and stay ahead.

I am going to go with our points leader, Carl Edwards, to come out with the win this weekend. I really think that he's meshing well with his team recently. That's going to be key in making sure this weekend runs smoothly. He's still ahead and intermediate tracks are always the best for him. Tony Stewart should have a strong run as well, but Edwards simply excels on this configuration and this track in general with a handful of wins here already. Jimmie Johnson is another one to watch. He's relatively good at this track, but his team really needs to get his car in synch with the track. With the exception of Martinsville, Johnson hasn't seemed very happy with his cars.

Here's a look at your standings following Sunday's race at Martinsville:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Tony Stewart
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Kyle Busch
8. Kurt Busch
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr
. 10. Jeff Gordon
11. Denny Hamlin
12. Ryan Newman

With just 3 races left in the season, there hasn't been a closer battle coming into the last few weeks of the Chase for the Cup. Essentially, anyone from about Jimmie Johnson in 6th position and up really still has a good shot depending on how much risk they are willing to take. The drivers are really in crunch time right now. There's really no driver pulling away from the field and securing the championship the way that Johnson has in the last several years. This year, NASCAR has ensured that there's been a close race all the way to this point. Let's see what kind of wrench Texas will throw in the mix.

Virginia's Pick to Win the AAA Texas 500: Take Carl Edwards in all head to head matchups and consider a small wager on him to win the race straight up.

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