AdvoCare 500 Picks

Race: AdvoCare 500
Date: Sunday September 4, 2011
Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Time: 7:30 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
by Virginia Vroom, Auto Racing Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Brad Keselowski defied the odds once again and won at Bristol Motor Speedway on Saturday night during a great show of short track racing. Keselowski has certainly shown some strength in the last few weeks as he is pushing his way into the wild card position, if not the top ten. This weekend, we are heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway. This is another one of those tracks where I think that Brad will perform strongly. I'm not sure if he is going to pull out a win or not, but he certainly will be one to watch.

Atlanta is notoriously a Roush track. Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards all run great here. Now out of that bunch, I expect to see Carl Edwards perform the strongest. He has been losing momentum recently, but Atlanta is the best track for him to make up what he's lost. He's not necessarily close to gambling with points outside the top 10, but he's certainly one of those guys that needs to maintain position into these last 2 races.

Other drivers to look out here for include Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch. Those two have had extremely good runs in the last few weeks. Jeff Gordon, especially, has been coming back into old form as his team seems to have new cohesion. I think that Alan Gustafson has done wonders for him and the team as we've certainly seen more consistency through the weeks.

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Now, Atlanta Motor Speedway is a track where tires mean a lot. This track is a 1.54 mile quad-oval with 24 degree banking in the turns and 5 degree banking on the straights. The frontstretch is 2332 feet with the backstretch coming in at 1800 feet. Track position also means a lot here because once a driver gets out front, he tends to drive away from the field. Tires are definitely going to help here in that respect, as we see a lot of green flag runs where tires get worn. It's going to be those guys that are able to come out first on pit road and stay out front with fresh tires that are going to win this one.

Overall, I'm calling the winner as Kyle Busch this weekend. I just have a feeling that he's overdue for a win for some reason. He's been driving strong, especially in the Nationwide races. Brother Kurt usually fares better at this track, but big brother has hit some speed bumps recently. As stated before, Keselowski, Edwards, and Gordon will also be ones to watch. Look for strong runs for all of these guys, who will be chasing Kyle Busch to victory lane.

Here's a look at your current top 10 in the points after Bristol:

1. Kyle Busch
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Carl Edwards
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Ryan Newman
8. Kurt Busch
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. Tony Stewart

The number 11 spot is held by first wild card pick Brad Keselowski, who is 21 points outside of the top 10. Denny Hamlin is the number 2 wild card pick standing in 13th place, 38 points behind Tony Stewart. There are only 2 races left before the Chase, so these guys need to kick it into high gear. Clint Bowyer holds the 12th spot, just 22 points outside of the top 10, but he will most likely have to fight his way into the number 10 spot if he is going to have a shot at this championship since he has no wins this season.

Sit back, grab a cold one, and fire up that grill for one last summer bash as we head into Labor Day weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Virginia's Prediction to Win the AdvoCare 500: Kyle Busch.

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