Hollywood Casino 400 Picks to Win

Race: Hollywood Casino 400
Date: Sunday October 9, 2011
Track: Kansas Motor Speedway
Time: 2 pm ET
Channel: ESPN
by Virginia Vroom, NASCAR Handicapper, Predictem.com

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Well, if these guys aren't managing to mess the points up, then I don't know who is! The Chase has been extremely unpredictable to this point, mirroring the rest of the season. It's incredible just how many of the top dog drivers are falling farther and farther behind in the points, including Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin. Granted, Hamlin started off rough in last place in the Chase, but he certainly hasn't been redeeming himself whatsoever. Regardless, Dover proved to be a track that challenged many of these guys. Jeff Gordon drove to 12th from 34th, but that still put him back quite a few spots in the points. Jr. managed a 24th place finish with Tony Stewart rounding out the top 25.

Now, I know that these guys have good days and bad days, but barring any ridiculous circumstances, fighting for 24th and 25th is a pretty bad place to be if you think that you are anywhere near Chase competitive. This weekend, Kansas is going to be the track that the drivers have to battle back at. Jeff Gordon has a good shot here, but he's also got the likes of Carl Edwards, who is extremely successful at Kansas to battle with. The guys competing for that championship are going to need to step it up to finishes in the top 10, definitely not in the top 20 anything. There is a lot of ground to make up for many drivers, so we will have to see how they fare here at Kansas.

This track is a tri-oval, which Gordon notoriously runs well at. Pocono is another tri-oval that he has very strong finishes at, but Gordon will outright say that he loves Kansas. On the other hand, you have Cousin Carl. He's just good here, plain and simple. The track is 1.5-miles with 15 degree banking in the turns, 10.4 degrees on the frontstretch, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. The frontstretch is 2685 feet and the backstretch is 2207 feet. Kansas is a tricky track to pin a winner in the respect that there are a lot of wrecks here. This is a fast track. It's not a track where guys wreck and get right back on the track. It's a track where guys wreck and go home. The stretches are so long, that the speed can be pretty awesome here.

The two front runners, though, are obviously Gordon and Edwards simply because of their history here. That being said, I am going to go with Carl Edwards this weekend. He wants to win and Kansas is one of this favorite, if not his favorite, tracks. It may not be concrete, but it's still fast and still capable of the speed and configuration that Carl likes, in those sorts of intermediate tracks. Other names to watch are namely Rousch teammate Greg Biffle and even Tony Stewart. Stewart had a rough weekend at Dover, but he can certainly make up ground here, as he has multiple wins.

Here are your current top 12 after Dover:

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Carl Edwards
3. Tony Stewart
4. Kurt Busch
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Kyle Busch
9. Jeff Gordon
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Ryan Newman
12. Denny Hamlin

There are quite a few big movers forwards and backwards. Johnson and Kurt Busch both picked up 5 spots after Dover. In contrast, Gordon lost 4 spots, and Keselowski lost 3 positions. This weekend will be interesting to see how much each driver can gain. There are only 19 points between 1st and 9th right now. These guys are going to need some strong finishes to get to the top and to space out the positions a little more if anyone is going to come out a front runner after Kansas! We will have to wait and see if Carl Edwards, one of the current joint leaders, can pull out a victory this Sunday.

Virginia's Prediction to Win the Hollywood Casino 400: Carl Edwards.

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