Pure Michigan 400 Picks

Race: Pure Michigan 400
Date: Sunday August 21, 2011
Track: Michigan International Speedway
Time: 1 pm ET
TV: ESPN
by Virginia Vroom, NASCAR Handicapper, Predictem.com

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That was one heck of a road race on Sunday! Talk about an exciting finish, cars were flipping on the last lap! Congratulations to Marcos Ambrose who got his first Sprint Cup win at Watkins Glen. It was a hard fought battle of pit strategy and track position to get to the front. Tony Stewart was working his way there before being another victim of the last lap and spinning in the inner-loop.

This weekend, we are headed to Michigan. This track is a 2 mile d-shaped oval. The turns have 18 degree banking. The frontstretch has 12 degree banking and the backstretch has 5 degree banking. The frontstretch is a whopping 3600 feet and the backstretch is 2242 feet.

Although we were at Watkins Glen last weekend, there are some similarities between the road course and the oval course that we are headed to this Sunday. The most important thing at both tracks is track position. Both tracks are difficult for drivers to chase. The leaders on these tracks get seconds ahead of the rest of the field. Starting up front and maintaining a top 10 spot will ultimately lead the driver to victory lane. In order to maintain that track position, tires are very important. Getting fresh rubber will help these guys get up front and stay there, especially on a 2-mile speedway.

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In terms of guys to watch for, I'd look for Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin to be front runners here. Brad has been one to watch and has had extremely strong runs over the last few weeks despite a horrible ankle injury. Carl Edwards does well on these types of tracks, as do his Roush teammates. Denny Hamlin has multiple wins on this track. Those three guys are going to be the frontrunners. I do think that Kevin Harvick and the Busch brothers will also have strong runs. Ultimately, I think that Keselowski will pull it off this weekend. He's been strong week in and week out and has proven that he can overcome major adversity.

Here's a look at your top 10 in the points after Watkins Glen:

1. Kyle Busch
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Matt Kenseth
6. Kurt Busch
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Ryan Newman
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. Tony Stewart

Here's the kicker. After this weekend at Michigan, there are only THREE races until the Chase begins. These guys need to get it in high gear if they plan on making it into those coveted 12 spots. The top 10 are still nowhere near safe at this point. Jr., in 9th place, is 82 points out of the lead. Clint Bowyer is in 11th, 118 points back. The problem that Bowyer is running into now is that he has no wins. This knocks him out of the wild card spot. The 11th and 12th spots in the Chase are going to go to those drivers highest in the points but also with the most wins. Under those circumstances, Brad Keselowski has the number 1 wild card spot while Denny Hamlin, currently in 12th, holds the number 2 wild card spot.

That being said, Clint Bowyer is out of the running as is Greg Biffle, who although ahead of Keselowski has no wins for the season yet. I really think that these last 4 weeks of racing before the Chase are going to be indicative of wanting to hold onto and get into the Chase spots. Watkins Glen usually isn't quite that crazy, but Sunday's race was a reflection of the heated battle for those top 12 spots. Wins are more important than ever now. That puts a different dynamic on the races as well. Previous to wild card spots, racing a 'safe' race was the best bet because guys were looking to get as many points as possible despite winning as long as consistency was the name of the game. Now that we are under the different format in crunch time where wins mean everything, there will definitely be a lot more dicey racing going on for those drivers in the top 15 to 20 spots. Wins are what everyone wants now. We will have to see what these guys are willing to do to get to victory lane on Sunday here at Michigan.

Virginia's Betting Prediction: Take Brad Keselowski to win and in all head to head matchups that you can find.

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